A Breathing Space
A year after celebrating our 50th year as an independent country, we desperately need a breathing space. The last three months beginning May 11, the day of the Indian nuclear blasts, has been a period of successive crisis. Locked into a no-win situation we had no option in the face of blatant Indian intransigency but to react, despite the dire warnings of the west laced with incentives, on May 28 we did. Whereas the sanctions imposed against India were at best a mockery of intention, in relative terms the strict enforcement against Pakistan is a travesty of justice. We have lurched from a serious geo-political crisis to an economic meltdown but none so potent a disaster as the erosion of national unity because of the nefarious exploitation of the Kalabagh Dam issue.
It is now quite clear that after the initial enthusiasm about solving the Kashmir problem, the US has virtually receded into its previous policy of maintaining the status quo and appeasing India. The Foreign Office lost a golden chance that May 28 gave us to exploit the situation in our favour. This failure can be attributed to our entrenched foreign service bureaucrats mired in antique “principled stands”, showing neither initiative nor any drive in evaluating and processing a positive approach. Their best initiative was to trot out Lt Gen (Retd) Sahibzada Yaqub Khan and Senator Akram Zaki, well-meaning but tottering has-beens, totally out of sync with the reality of the times as well as the ability to match the glib tongue of Jaswant Singh. To compound our problems, as Ambassador in the US at this crucial juncture, Riaz Khokhar is a living disaster for Pakistan, his priorities are more attuned to the limousine that can be purchased for his use. It is better to send such people to places where they can do little harm. Our Afghan policy seems to be finally paying off with the Taliban more or less in control of most of the country. No doubt someone mature and competent in ISI is handling Afghanistan, the inter-action in the field is almost over and it is time to inter-act positively at the diplomatic level. The Taliban victory is proving very costly to Pakistan in terms of our deep friendship with Iran. On Tuesday there was a demonstration (the only one in living memory) outside the Pakistan Embassy in Tehran. We must help resolve this problem of the missing Iranian diplomats because putting it very bluntly we cannot afford a hostile Iran. In fact, given our geo-political situation we can ill-afford a less than totally supportive Iran. About Kashmir, we need to narrow the difference of perceptions with India by practicing real-politic. A fresh and indirect approach could be to seek the active support of a rich Muslim country like Saudi Arabia and UAE, requesting them to send India a clear message that further atrocities in Kashmir would have adverse impact on its foreign relations with their countries, that it might entail sending Indians working/doing business in that country back to India. Given the deep commercial interests in the Gulf countries, the Indian Government will be exposed to pressure from Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) to resolve the Kashmir issue.
Sanctions-busting is next and that too without being blackmailed into signing the CTBT. Senator Sartaj Aziz as Foreign Minister is an excellent choice as his command of economics and foreign policy, both of vital importance, is excellent. The position is clear, IMF is holding back funds because of US pressure. When they see that funds are coming from other sources or that Pakistan may default on debt servicing they are likely to release the withheld tranches. In a sense, therefore, the Foreign Minister has combined two roles, that of external relations and finance. With a positive command of facts and statistics as well as being well-respected in international financial circles, the good Senator will be an asset to Pakistan as in any other role for this country. What we need is a belt-tightening policy that can absorb the long-term effects of sanctions if they last. In a sense the same economic team is in full charge of constructive engagement in an increasingly economic world. For his astute handling of the first phase of the Cabinet re-shuffle, give a plus point to Mian Nawaz Sharif. He needs to make more omelettes without breaking eggs.
The major issue confronting the nation internally is the unity factor which has been split wide open by the Kalabagh Dam, a vital project of dire necessity for the country, but one which without consensus is a non-starter. One good thing is that separatists have come out of the closet, with Wali Khan showing his true colours at Attock Bridge on August 10, with volleys of AK-47 fire aimed at Punjab. However this gathering was nothing much to worry about, it was a futile show of force. As is usual for Ms Benazir, when she is in deep trouble she falls back on her ploy of last resort, the “Sindh Card”. By blockading Punjab at Ubaro she displayed her contempt towards her once mighty Punjabi bastion. Increasingly she realises that her only defence to corruption is being a regional leader. To the credit of both MQM and the rest of the PAI parties, they did not take part in this outrage. To foment separatism when the country is facing financial disaster is nothing short of a crime. The PM made a mistake by announcing the construction of the Kalabagh Dam, then he made amends by calling for a consensus. At least give him a plus for quick retraction. When all the experts are united that this Dam is necessary, the only option available to the PM is to make Wali Khan Chairman of the Commission to examine the Kalabagh Dam issue and come to some conclusion whether he or the technical experts are right or wrong. If Wali Khan is as honest as he professes to be, then we will get the correct logical answers to our questions. If indeed he plays politics at the cost of honesty then he will stand exposed as not only being a hypocrite but having no love for this country. In any case what we need desperately is breathing space.
The city of Karachi needs a respite badly from the cycle of violence that it cannot seem to shake off. A dramatic initiative is required to get back the Mohajir Community into the national mainstream. While Local Bodies Election and their function upto the District level in Karachi and Hyderabad is essential, something has to be done about the “Quota System”, now constitutionally amended to last for a decade plus. This deprives the Mohajir youth their rightful place under the Pakistani sun, in fact drives them up the wall. The MQM has shown good faith by not joining the Sindhi extremist Ms Benazir Bhutto at Ubaro, the government should reciprocate by suspending for Karachi and Hyderabad only the “Quota System” for a period of five years. The reciprocal condition must be maintenance of peace and harmony in these cities at all costs, let the District level Local Bodies be made responsible for such. This will get Pakistan some more breathing space.
Mian Nawaz Sharif desperately needs to gain time for the nation and his government. He needs to take radical initiatives of some consequence. After all he has been constitutionally elected in free and fair elections. His mandate is strong enough to suggest he cannot be brought down by anything less than extra-constitutional measures. However, the emergence of virtually unelectable parties like the Millat Party suggest that he has to compromise with those that are electable for the sake of national unity and integrity. Politics is the art of compromise, as Mian Nawaz Sharif is now showing, he is gradually coming to terms with this art. If he succeeds, Pakistan will have the breathing space we so desperately need.
Did you enjoy this post? Why not leave a comment below and continue the conversation, or subscribe to my feed and get articles like this delivered automatically to your feed reader.
Comments
No comments yet.
Leave a comment