A Half Year Scorecard
For those fed up with the “civilian coup” that saw Asif Zardari virtually take over the affairs of governance in lieu of his wife, Ms Benazir Bhutto, great expectations are vested in the success of Mian Sahib, who came to office with the largest mandate, seat-wise, in this nation’s democratic history. These mainly centre around sound governance, the country having been reduced into economic apocalypse by acts of both commission and omission. Given the limitations of our leaders in matters of governance, expectation as to radical change is a pipedream that we must now grow out of hoping and longing for, unless we are masochists who revel in our frustration because that’s all we are likely to get. Public memory being notoriously short, perception usually overwhelms reality.
Innovative reforms and massive restructuring having laid the basis for economic recovery, Mian Nawaz Sharif squandered a unique opportunity for economic emancipation by going overboard in being too liberal with the business community. Relief in taxation measures should not have meant their ill-advised pampering by wholesale reduction of taxes. While heavy taxation had dampened economic activity, the shortage of revenues in government coffers has been mainly due to rampant corruption, our revenue collectors and businessmen being equal partners in pilferage, continue to be so. When a tax officer is given a bribe (unofficial tax), it is only because the businessman wants to save much more (many multiples more) than what he actually pays to the government exchequer officially. Mian Nawaz Sharif harbours a naive misconception that our businessmen would voluntarily become responsible towards the State and pay their dues. Well, Mian Sahib, think again, according to all indicators, revenues are far lesser (according to some sources as much as Rs 24 billion) than that anticipated, the end result will be increasing of taxes to the level (at least) what they were pre-March 1997 or deficit financing, both of which contributed to the economic mess of the Benazir years. The government must initiate private sector monitoring of tax returns on a random basis, with maximum punitive measures for both businessman and taxation officer alike in case of discrepancies. On the other hand, the nationalised commercial banks (NCBs) and the public development finance institutions (DFIs) have stopped haemorrhaging and are on the road back to consolidation. While economic euphoria is still a long way off, institutionalised reforms are slowly taking-effect and a sound economic management team, headed by Federal Finance Senator Sartaj Aziz, has taken mature, long-term measures which may eventually pull us out of our economic morass, a good cotton cash crop and increased revenues permitting.
Mian Sahib’s foreign policy gets mixed reviews. The laying of barriers at the Khunjerab Pass on the Karakoram Highway by Chinese authorities may have been due to a local security situation caused by the actions of religious militants, the act was unfortunately symbolic in that it represented the first time in nearly 40 years of a mutually satisfying relationship that no-confidence has been shown by the Chinese in our ability to restrain our religious activists. Coming at a time when the Indians have put into high gear a massive campaign to win over Chinese friendship, coinciding neatly with China’s need to forestall US initiative to isolate China in Asia, it has eroded the one solid cornerstone of our foreign policy, China’s unstinting support, morally, economically and militarily. Estranged from the US because of our very necessary nuclear policy, from Russia because of their historical friendship with India, the loss of Chinese support will be a devastating blow that we can do without. With our neighbour (and great supporter once-upon-a-time) Iran, our relations are going bad to worse, firstly because of sectarian differences based on the Shia-Sunni divide and next, as an extension of that in Afghanistan. During the Benazir years, Iran took us to be proxies for the US and Saudi Arabia, this impression is somehow being reinforced rather than being dispelled. Afghanistan has been an unmitigated disaster, mostly because of our own making. Supporting a rapprochement between the unreliable KGB-operative Malik and the Taliban is beyond comprehension. A bloody slugfest for control of Kabul is now going on between the Taliban and the rest (called the Alliance), the country is effectively divided, turning our Afghan policy into shambles. As regards Kashmir we have been patently sending wrong signals all around, particularly to the freedom fighters in the valley. The recent briefing for senior persons in the print media made clear that the focus of our Kashmir policy was expediency and convenience rather than on substance. Who is the Foreign Minister, Gohar Ayub Khan, Siddique Kanju or Mushahid Hussain? It could very well be someone faceless and nameless, the ISI remains a “Foreign Office without Portfolio” but at least they would be more effective in defining the parameters than our present establishment. What we need is far better coordination of a more defined policy than we have now.
Senator Saifur Rahman’s drive to nail white collar criminals of the political patronage kind has had mixed reviews. Momentarily some important fish like Hashwani, Gandhi, Schon, Tawakkal, etc have come to realise that crime does not pay but their potency for misdemeanour remains. The settlement in some of the cases may indeed be commendable but the return of only a meagre amount from that defalcated and/or defrauded as a barter for complete exoneration is absolutely outrageous. The important must not be mixed with the trivial and given equal billing e.g functionaries getting their scions good jobs in prestigious institutions may smack of rank nepotism, it pales before other criminal misdemeanours, charges for which they should face as cheats and frauds. By publicising a list of 87 bureaucrats to be targeted, Saif effectively emasculated the effectiveness of bureaucracy when their willing performance was most needed by the incumbent regime. While Saif’s infectious enthusiasm is notable, he is still a well-stretched neophyte politician without much experience, the ultimate perception one gets is of a well-meaning “bull in a China shop”. While he is ahead in the game of pluses and minuses, a more mature politician of the experience and maturity of Fakhar Imam could have delivered much more. Another lightweight exists in the form of Senator Ishaq Dar. It is mind-boggling to imagine that Mian Nawaz Sharif’s present Minister for Commerce was seriously being considered as Minister for Finance. While Dar may find condescion to be a useful camouflage, while he was on self-exile practicing as a Cost and Management Accountant in East London in UK, others were risking their life and property in taking on the Benazir regime within the country. The Commerce Ministry remains bankrupt of ideas and the only thing going for it is glib talk, action without substance. When the gloss is taken off from the Trade Policy the only increase in exports envisaged is that registered by inflation and depreciation of the Pakistani Rupee.
Not that Mian Nawaz Sharif does not have jewels in the uneasy head that wears the crown. Other than economic initiatives an outstanding effort has been made in privatisation. At the risk of giving him the kiss of political death, one may make the comment that fellow Sialkoti Khawaja Asaf is future Prime Minister-material (i.e. at least 12-15 years down the road (2010 may be ?) given that he is anything but a man in a hurry except for the work engaging him). Khwaja Asaf, Ahsan Iqbal, Begum Abida Hussain, Raja Nadir Pervaiz, etc are all exemplary performers despite formidable obstacles in the face of dwindling friends and an obdurate, foot-dragging bureaucracy. MNA Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, is another young man with impeccable credentials but he seems to be bent on ridding PIA of most of hard-core Nawaz Sharif supporters among the executives, rank professionals who suffered at the hands of the last regime till PIA could not be run effectively without them. The political Chairman’s on-the-job training and blunders thereof be at PIA’s cost, at the cost of Mian Nawaz Sharif’s credibility and at the cost of the nation it is time to give notice that Shahid must be held accountable if PIA goes further down. Unfortunately PIA is a rough barometer of the national situation and its success and/or failure has importance far more than its corporate size. The government’s decision to take on the judiciary has a familiar ring to it, almost a replay of the Benazir regime’s knee-jerk reaction after the March 20, 1996 judgement. While giving out “honey and sugar” signals, covertly by reducing the judges strength from 17 to 12, the government has set the stage for a full-fledged Parliament-judiciary confrontation, a no-win situation, leading to doubts about the future of the government. Of the so-called PML (N) Government in Sindh the less said the better, to put it bluntly PML (N) has no government in Sindh. Mian Nawaz Sharif has given a strong commitment that the Liaquat Jatoi regime of bureaucrat cronies will survive, it will be at Mian Nawaz’s expense.
Mian Nawaz Sharif should have learnt his political lessons at Benazir’s expense, she failed despite being an avid student of politics and a master practitioner thereof, a charmer by any other name. The public perception of the Mian Nawaz Sharif regime has descended to absurd lows relative to its original mandate. Instead of posturing for the media in a bid to outdo the Bhuttos in populist politics, Mian Sahib should get down to hands-on governance with the support of people from outside his “breakfast team”. It is always fatal to underestimate Ms Benazir and her potential to de-stabilise governments, maybe she cannot replace Mian Sahib but she always will have the ability to uproot his government. Free from being handicapped by the likes of Asif Zardari, she retains a potential for upward mobility through experience gained during long years in the cold. In a clinch she can be a hell of a fighter.
A few more months must elapse before the economic scorecard can show the measure between success and failure, Mian Nawaz Sharif’s honeymoon period is now long gone. On an objective analysis, he remains on even basis on the half-yearly count, not too bad but not too good either. For Pakistan, which had great expectations in Mian Nawaz Sharif, that is simply not good enough. For those who want him to remain in power the only way to ensure his survival is to keep up a drumbeat of criticism going till he does something about it.
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