Election 1990 – The end game
Opening Narrative ——————— Once the schedule for the 1988 elections was announced, Ms Benazir’s ascent to the PM’s office was largely assured. Though failing in their bid for an absolute majority, the PPP emerged as the largest single party. Cobbling together an unlikely alliance with the MQM, she handily got a vote of confidence once she was asked to form a government by the President.
Ms Benazir confounded her political opponents on many counts, prime among them being that, except for an understandable hang-up about late Gen Ziaul Haq bordering on pathological hatred, she did not embark on any real vendetta. Rather it was some of her more enthusiastic colleagues in the Punjab Province who went for Nawaz Sharif’s jugular vein, ensuring his emergence as a genuine national political leader in his own right and the continued existence of IJI as an alliance. With an absolute majority in Sindh Province, Ms Benazir opted for weak Chief Ministers, ruled over from Islamabad (and Bilawal House in Karachi), some of her neophyte ministers tried an early political coup d’etat in Balochistan that backfired. In NWFP, Aftab Sherpao kept the Provincial PPP growing from strength to strength by following pragmatic policies that should have been emulated by Ms Benazir at the Federal level. The Prime Minister was very accommodating towards the Armed Forces, the mutual respect was very welcome, given that both sides had dire apprehensions about the real intentions of each other. Ms Benazir did not show commensurate patience for the civilian establishment, quite a number of them found themselves as OSDs. At the same time, favourites leap-frogged into key positions, some on lateral basis, the PPP regime was thus not really adored by the entrenched bureaucracy.
Charisma and international credibility can carry a person for some distance, economic reality soon catches up with rhetoric. Ms Benazir was especially lucky to have economic handlers like A.G.N Kazi and V.A.Jafarey, honest and adept, with years of administrative experience in the economic field between them, they kept an inherited bad situation from getting worse. The pragmatic economic policies of the first 15 months have been the highlight of her 20 months in power, her quick repudiation of the PPP’s stated manifesto of nationalisation for a Thatcherite policy of denationalisation, disinvestment and privatisation endeared her to the business community as well as assuaging their apprehensions. Despite naive foreign policy initiatives towards India, possibly a personal mesmerisation with the Rajiv Gandhi mystic, she had the political instincts inherited from her father to change step as necessary over Kashmir. She continues to enjoy a love-fest with the world media, invited to address the US Congress she got a standing ovation, it would have been a hard heart indeed to deny this attractive figure, after her many years of sacrifice, a golden moment of basking in the glory of the world’s most powerful democracy. That the glare of publicity and rhetoric did not match the practice of democratic ideals within Pakistan was hidden from view, Americans usually go more for the image of the media than the substance underneath.
The world is black and white in its simplistic form, there are many shades of grey to contend with. In the case of PPP trouble came in many multi-coloured versions, the injuries were mostly self-inflicted. The first shock to the military establishment (and to a broad segment of the masses in Punjab) was the seemingly cosy relationship with India, for some unexplained reason, maybe a case of simply missing the point, Ms Benazir failed to take issue with Rajiv when, sitting next to her in a Press Conference on a visit to Pakistan during the SAARC Summit in December 1988, he dismissed Pakistan’s claims about Kashmir, maybe it was because of the glare of spotlights that she managed to give a dazed but brilliant smile. Then came the famous Sirohey affair, in which she made an ill-advised transparent move to put a favourite into the strongman COAS slot while sidelining the incumbent by moving him up the ladder to the innocuous position of the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee. This was akin to being caught with a hand in the cookie jar, Ms Benazir’s intentions became suspect to the military hierarchy. Needless to say, the Empire (consisting of the geriatric civilian bureaucracy) took heart, putting the gun on the military’s shoulder is a favourite bureaucratic pass time, they get all the muck while you can walk away with the gravy-train.
At about this time, the script becomes murky. While it was to be expected that having spent a decade and then some, PPP stalwarts would go on a binge, nothing new given Pakistan’s history of corruption, whether under political or military rule, the scope of the loot stunned even the most hardened cynics, the extent defies description, reaching new levels of sophistication. While rumours abounded, not a few of them utterly concocted, certain hard facts did emerge. There is widespread belief that Ms Benazir never allowed a strong Chief Minister in Sindh because her husband, Asif Zardari, was the man who really ran Sindh. This was a perception that gained wide currency. Asif Zardari’s cronies abounded, from school mates who made it into the Provincial Cabinet in key largesse dispensing positions to absolute nobodies, convicted rapists among them, who suddenly were entrusted to get US$ 1 billion loan from the Vatican, to be “routed through a private trust”, the financial ramifications of such an arrangement are mind boggling. At the same time, it became clear that the rapport with MQM was initiated only for the selfish purpose of coming to power at the Federal level, not only had PPP no intentions of honouring the PPP-MQM Accord they had all the intentions of cutting these “political upstarts” down to size. The fallout of the coalition with MQM before the no-confidence motion last October was responsible for the subsequent violent polarisation in Sindh, leading to debilitating confrontation in the major urban areas, the fact that the Sindh Government itself became a party to the conflict with terrorist overtones eroded its authority. The burgeoning news about Asif Zardari’s business indiscretions served to stiffen the establishment’s resolve that it was time to turn on their political bosses. With the Bureaucrat of all Bureaucrats in power and the military quietly resentful (King Lear-like) about infringement in their domain about promotions, posting, etc, with Darth Vader in the form of Asif Zardari on the wrong side this time, that of the Princess, the Empire struck back, many former “uncles” among them.
The Caretakers ———————— Bureaucracy has an inherent capacity for passing the buck. In the make-up of the Federal Cabinet, an odd hodge-podge of people seem to have been cobbled together as a Front to take the media heat. While Mustafa Jatoi was the odds-on choice for Prime Minister, the rest of the Cabinet are a mixed lot of politicians and technocrats, their common platform seems to be the “Anybody But Benazir” slogan. They have fair talent among them, except for one or two they are not really involved in the accountability process, this is the domain of a Bureaucratic coterie consisting of the President himself, Ghulam Ishaq Khan, his point man, Roeded Khan and a few others. In effect a Civilian Martial Law (under Constitutional cover) has been imposed and exposed as such, for the first time bureaucracy is taking the heat directly without the military taking the blame as usual as patsies, to some these old-time bureaucrats are indeed “the Last of the Mohicans”, in the bungling of the accountability process the scenario is increasingly looking like “Custer’s Last Stand”. Of the many inept, inefficient, bumbling things attempted in Pakistan, the present witch-hunting process defies adequate description, if the ultimate consequences were not to be so tragic it would be comic. There can be no doubts about widespread corruption, that evidence is not forthcoming would drive Inspector Clouseau to shame, it is a national embarrassment that hopefully will be overtaken by the October 24 event.
Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi has waited a long time to become Prime Minister, his personal loyalty to late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and to the Bhutto family precluded this at least a decade earlier. Ultimately he was unceremoniously cast out by an arrogant Ms Benazir in 1986, an unkind cut for such a fine gentleman, he has lived to see her being removed as PM and himself taking her place. Jatoi is a dignified man, does not inculcate the youthful dynamism of Ms Benazir but is not abrasive with appointments and does not make the wrong type of waves, anathema to the powers-that-be, in effect he is politically “safe”. He is a far far better person, Junejo excluded, than the other aspirants for PM of Pakistan. There is doubt about his own seat, he and a former PM, Junejo lost theirs in the last elections, both will probably scrape through this time because of the incumbent Sindh Chief Minister, Jam Sadiq Ali, a shrewd campaign manager, a political operator par excellence, he will cut deep into PPP’s power base to get an odd half a dozen or so upsets in the National Assembly.
The Elections —————— Some of the bureaucracy with vested interests have gone into a state of controlled panic at the prospect of Ms Benazir coming back to power. Indeed she has swung from on an all-time low on August 06, 1990 back to reasonable heights in voter preference but unfortunately for her ambitions to come back as PM, the pendulum has gone too far for her to pull it back to the November 1988 level. Two issues, one India, the other economic, have cut deep into her popularity, the loss is not visible in the surging PPP crowds Ms Benazir draws but she is bereft of the crucial swing vote that she badly needs in key constituencies. The common theme among the intelligentsia is that she has bounced back because of the disastrous witch-hunting process, she may have gained a little bit, not enough to propel her back to power.
In 1988, PPP got 38% of the national vote to emerge as the largest single party, IJI got 33% of the vote but did not fragment as predicted, thanks to the PPP offensive in the Punjab against them post-elections. The IJI still have a lot of problems but a common theme of an anti-Benazir stance binds them together, a glue that seems to hold this disparate fabric in spite of many centrifugal forces. Of the PPP’s 38%, 15-18% are hard-core Bhutto loyalists, an amazing bloc that will not accept any evidence of wrongdoing brought against her, even if found to be true. This is a country-wide phenomenon which is admirable, given that most of the 15-18% accept, rightly or wrongly, that Asif Zardari has been less than as honest person. One can only remark that this is a commendable loyalty showed by the masses and that Ms Benazir will not betray this sacred trust of blind loyalty ever, husband or no husband. After all, one cannot be a hypocrite and sacrifice blind love and trust being bestowed on her by a fairly significant portion of the masses.
Of the balance 20%, 14% were women and 6% men. In this Ms Benazir is vulnerable, particularly among the womenfolk, in all areas except Sindh because of the rising prices of essentials. On a national average, from this segment she will lose two thirds of the women vote and more than half of the men’s. Giving her the benefit of the doubt, this 20% would be split in half i.e 10% would still vote for the PPP. Adding 18% and 10% we come to 28%. With a “Reserve for Unforeseen” of 10% of this (2.8%) added, we come to 30.8%. The Shia vote (TNFJ) for her will not affect the figures at all because this was also present in her favour in 1988, Asghar Khan’s joining her Alliance has certainly improved the PPP image, in actual percentage may even marginally increase the overall vote, particularly among the Urban intelligentsia by about 1-2% or so, giving her a grand total of 33% at the very most. In 1988, IJI got about 60 seats on this percentage. On the other hand, the IJI will go up marginally by about 2-3% i.e upto 36% of the national vote because of the solidification of opposition to Ms Benazir. This swing will be more pronounced in Punjab than in Sindh. In Sindh some gains will be because of MQM voters on the fringes, who will vote for the IJI en bloc.
The questions to answer are, is the PPP more popular than in November 1988? Will the loss of her MRD colleagues affect Ms Bhutto on borderline seats? What has been the trend of the results in the heartland of Punjab for the Provincial elections and bye-elections later? Coming to power pure of the taint of corruption, what effect will the yoke of Asif Zardari have on Ms Benazir’s chances, particularly in view of her defence of him in the face of the silent acknowledgement of his financial indiscretions even by her closest colleagues? The rank and file PPP member is an emotional person and a dedicated loyalist, the October 24 elections may seem to be a “last hurrah” so he may dig in to try and defy the odds. It is very unfair to inflict Asif Zardari on the only real national Party in Pakistan.
Except for the odd politicians like Junejo and Jatoi, etc, the IJI are no bunch of closet saints. Mostly lack-lustre politicians, they are representative of the dull and the mundane. Many of them may be elected because of their individual qualities or talents but also by the negative vote because of the suspicions of the electorate about Ms Bhutto. In all fairness if Asif Zardari is to be brought into the dock, First Brother Shahbaz Sharif has enough rumours about his shenanigans to convict him on prima-facie evidence.
The MQM represents a solid swing vote in IJI’s favour, their 14 seats (maybe 15) in Karachi and Hyderabad becomes of great political significance. No less is the Jamhoori Watan Party (JWP) in Balochistan (8-9 seats) the JUI (F) and the ANP’s safe 6-7 seats in NWFP. Given that Aftab Sherpao really ran an independent (of the Centre) PPP Government without any material help from his Federal colleagues, his pragmatic policies of increasing primary education, the Gadoon Amazai project and request for rightful Provincial share in the revenues of hydel power will help PPP to get about 9-10 seats in the National Assembly and increase the PPP representation by about 15% in the Provincial Assembly. His has been a class political act of grand compromise inviting bipartisan admiration.
In the circumstances, the IJI with 35-36% of the national vote will get between 80-90 seats for the National Assembly, in Punjab 70-75 seats, NWFP 5-6 seats, Sindh 5-6 seats, Balochistan 2-3 seats. PPP will get nationally between 70-80 seats, Punjab 35-36 seats, Sindh 24-25 seats, NWFP 9-10 seats, Balochistan 2-3 seats. Working on the mean average of 85 seats, the IJI with its MQM Ally (14-15 seats) JWP (8-9 seats) and FATA (8-9 seats) will be in a position to form the Federal Government. In NWFP, an ANP, JUI (F), IJI alliance could take shape but it could be another Aftab Sherpao-led coalition as in Balochistan, where Akbar Bugti can stitch together a coalition around JWP.
Jam Sadiq Ali is the best Chief Minister that Sindh has ever had, what a loss to the PPP? True he has had a chequered existence as a Provincial PPP minister in an earlier incarnation, but he is extremely effective and the results will be seen in the coming elections when the PPP tide of 1988 will be reversed — at least to an extent. PPP may be in a good position to make the Government in Sindh but Ms Bhutto should have ensured that she had brought in the “floor crossing bill” while she was in power. If PPP should win a majority with a slim margin, Jam’s influence on PPP adherents will be lethal to Ms Bhutto. While Ms Bhutto commands wide adulation, it is in the Punjab that she can win a national mandate not in Sindh, Hobson’s choice for selecting the area to put the maximum effort of her election campaign. In trying to take Punjab, particularly in the wake of the Khar-offensive on PPP workers, she might find Jam Sadiq Ali walking off with her Sindh base, some say it is unlikely, lets see!
Aftermath and The Future ——————— Given the passions she arouses against her in October 1990, in contrast to the passions she aroused for her in November 1988, Ms Benazir may consider herself individually lucky if she is not in a position to form the Government. Asif Zardari can (and perhaps will) be brought to trial based on the evidence available but it is open to question, what is more important that the people of Pakistan are generally in agreement that he was involved in many business dealings on the strength of his wife’s position, that is not the verdict of a court of law but the court of public opinion. The tragedy is that the PPP, the only truly national party, blessed with a charismatic leader should suffer because the intelligentsia and a fair amount of the masses look upon her husband as a money-mad adventurer. In the unlikely event that she does get into a position to form a government one does see the people who matter sitting back twiddling their thumbs in a forgiving mood, as was seen in November 1988.
If the IJI forms the Government, as is now more or less apparent that they will, what are we likely to see? Like the PPP, the IJI has many honourable persons within their midst but they also have a fair share of people who have been looting the country’s wealth, particularly in the last decade. Nawaz Sharif may be an aspirant for Prime Minister but he cannot easily explain away a number of Salman Taseer’s charges. While Nawaz Sharif commands wide adulation in the Punjab, he shares with Ms Bhutto the perception of the masses about corruption within his family circle, if not exactly recognized by the common man, at least by the intelligentsia. What an unfortunate impasse that two of our most potent and youthful leaders should thus be tainted. For Pakistan it is a real tragedy!
Any IJI coalition government is going to self-destruct down the road. While the elders may hold the disparate forces together for some time, personal egos and habitual corruption will be compounded by horse trading, one wishes that given the polarisation some government will come to power that will hold but this is most unlikely. In any case there may be likely opposition governments in some of the Provinces leading to infringes on Provincial autonomy and polarisation thereof. In the circumstances one can only see in the crystal ball an authoritarian regime in Pakistan’s future, maybe even 6-9 months away. Given the terrible track record of the previous do-gooders in uniform one can only hope that this time around some people really selfless and clean arrive on the national scene, some with a measure of self-accountability, without greed for land and money, in whichever order.
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