Political Game-Changer
The size of the crowd that gathered at the Minar-i-Pakistan in Lahore on Oct 30 clearly rattled Imran Khan’s opponents. Four hours before the Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf (TI) leader even started speaking, nearly 45000 chairs arranged in neat rows were filled to capacity. Independent observers estimated the overflowing audience to range between 100000 to 200000. A stream of PML (N) leaders sneered at the “small” size, their petty snide remarks undercutting their credibility as political leaders, the blatant falsehood only underscoring that the significance of the huge turnout was not lost on them. After years in the political wilderness, Imran Khan’s time has finally come.
Imran Khan’s rhetoric was not great oratory but it had the substance that the people of Pakistan wanted to hear, he spilled it out in small doses. More importantly, it had credibility. The joke of the week, PPP and PML (Q) leaders claiming on prime time TV tongue-in-cheek that they had sent their workers to bolster the Imran numbers in order to discomfit the Sharif brothers. Such tactics could probably enlarge the size of the crowd somewhat but could they instill the overwhelming enthusiasm on display? The real problem for the other political parties is that those who went to the rally (and some of them were diehard political workers) did so voluntarily, not because their leaders said so. Couple this coalition of expectations with the exuberance among those newly arrived at voting age. The mix of a cross-blending of aspirations of people of all ages from disparate sections of society made the event one of great political magnitude, many knowledgeable analysts labelling it a political game-changer!
Iqbal Park is a very difficult proposition to fill, many politicians shy away from holding public meetings here because the perception of a small sized crowd in the vast area can be counter-productive. You can’t hire that size of gathering or buy the constant vociferous enthusiasm on display for money, even cheerleaders need to take a break. The venue was a risky choice, making many of Imran’s detractors happy because failure to generate a sizeable congregation would have exposed his political pretensions. No one in his right mind except Imran Khan could have taken that calculated risk, it speaks volumes of his self-confidence. The media was unanimous and fair in showering kudos, those who organized it deserve all the praise. The world of politics is a game of public perceptions and the electronic media excels in projecting this. While substance must have weightage over rhetoric, perceptions always seem to have more effect than substance. The real challenge will be how Imran can exploit and sustain the raw emotions manifest in the creation of the present political momentum.
Given today’s terror-ridden environment one held one’s breath hoping against hope that no untoward incident would disrupt the proceedings. Female participation at political gatherings in Pakistan is always negligible and mostly contrived (just like Annual General Meetings (AGMs) of publicly listed companies), they came in droves on Oct 30, braving the dangers and the discomforts. It was heartening to see the upwardly mobile mixing seamlessly with the old and young from across the economic and social divide. PPP’s electoral success is because of their rock solid women vote. The US $ 64000 question, can Imran capture that original PPP potential, and keep it?
Given all the educated estimations of all-out success, that Imran Khan will sweep the polls in the Punjab and some areas of Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa (KPK) will still take some doing. Politics is a tough game, there is usually a wide gap between perception and translating that into reality. In our present electoral practice as long as “electables” in rural areas have control over the local bureaucracy, mainly the Patwaris, as well as the police, they will win their constituencies whichever party they join (or remain independent), not because they are popular but because their contrived ability to stuff the ballot boxes. The Oct 30 stage had generally good people having very good intentions but without the political steam to deliver seats, on their own and/or even on Imran’s coattails. While there will be a rush to join him after the “Oct 30 Tsunami”, many opportunists will always try to climb onto whichever political bandwagon is ascendant. Many of the political aspirants will have such baggage Imran Khan cannot accept them without staining his political credibility. Many politicians of maturity and substance have been sitting on the fence and just needed some nudging. One cannot blame them, before Oct 30 not many really believed he was electable. The Catch-22 is that Imran has to compromise his standards somewhat to ensure a full-slate of eligible aspirants to choose from. Requiring a “declaration by all politicians aspiring for office of assets” should work to his advantage, scrutiny by qualified accountants ensuring that those possessing false declarations and fake degree he can do without.
Hopelessly divided into several distinct groups, most PML (Q) legislators should gravitate towards Imran. Their provincial colleagues in Punjab trying to join the Sharifs were legally frustrated, those averse to joining them formed a separate group and chose to remain independent. Some remained loyal to Ch Shujaat till he joined the PPP-led Coalition, gambling their political lives in keeping Moonis Elahi out of jail. A whole lot of disaffected PML (N) and PPP legislators who have been sidelined or find their party hijacked by opportunists and outsiders will board Imran’s ship. If PPP think they will not be affected by the Imran “swing” in the electorate, they should think again. Imran’s appeal cuts across normally concrete party lines. What do PPP diehard faithful think of Salman Faruqi who was suspended for corruption in 1973 by PPP’s first Finance Minister, the honest and upright Dr Mubashir Hasan, now being the predominant voice deciding the PPP Govt’s policies? Some of the politicians will go whichever way their group goes but many will take individual decisions. Political parties like the JI will gladly form electoral alliances, their political cadres will be invaluable. Imran keeps referring to how Zulfikar Ali Bhutto crafted success in the 1970 elections, can he emulate Bhutto’s political craftsmanship by building a coalition of differing ideologies under one roof?
Official machinery was used to the hilt to organize and stage-manage the Sharif show two days earlier to Imran’s in Lahore. The Sharifs vote bank notwithstanding, the crowd enthusiasm was clearly contrived rather than being spontaneous. When the contrast to Oct 30 came along, the Sharif Brothers lost big time. Unless they can come up with a real miracle, they will have a steadily diminishing role in Punjab, the massive mis-governance by the incumbent CM who thinks Punjab is confined to Lahore only exacerbates the situation. Ironically, the roles have been reversed, Imran Khan was earlier the “spoiler”, he is now in the driving seat in electoral politics in Pakistan’s largest Province.
Benazir was truly Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s biological and political daughter, both experts at exploiting populist issues. Imram Khan has finally grasped the mantle with which Bhutto surprised everyone in the 1970 elections. Successfully capturing that populism may be the game-changer in today’s Pakistani politics.
Game on!
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