Regional Complications
One of Ariel Sharon’s last actions as PM in December 2005 before he had a stroke and slipped into coma, in which state he remains today, was to activate Unit 262 (equivalent of US Special Forces and our Special Services Group) and 69 Squadron of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), mandating it to be ready for action by end March 2006. F-15s from 69 had successfully carried out the June 7, 1981 Osirik raid to destroy Saddam Hussein’s nuclear ambitions. Israel, and thereby by default the US, have treated Iranian President Ahmednijad’s threats quite seriously, and have said so, focussing on that as “casus belli”. Iranian nuclear sites will be targeted by surgical strikes, sooner rather than later.
The best-laid plans tend to go awry, the quagmire that is Iraq being a gory example. The year 2006 had Iran written all over it. Hezbollah had ideas of their own and the carefully scripted timing went haywire. Israel’s vaunted military might was for once fought to a standstill by a few thousand guerillas using classic guerilla tactics adapted to the terrain and conditions to fight a conventional war. Iran had to be put on hold! The US, which stood aside at the outset to give the Israel time to destroy Hezbollah’s military cadres, had to reverse direction and broker a peace to pull Israel’s chestnuts out of the Lebanese cauldron. As everyone and his uncle knows occupation of territory is the measure for victory and defeat. While Hezbollah did not win, neither did the Israelis.
Any Israeli surgical strike will invite Iranian retaliation on Israel, and US assets (and allies) in the vicinity, the talk of any attack being limited to an array of targets is nonsense. To avoid that retaliation, the US will have to take out Iranian combat aircraft, submarines and anti-ship missiles, will certainly also go for Iran’s ballistic missiles. The US Congress passed a resolution requiring the President to seek Congress authorisation to go to war in Iran, with US interests in immediate danger the US President will act and is not likely to wait around for legal niceties, particularly not Hezbollah. Over-stretched in Iraq and facing domestic protest because of mounting casualty figures, a US ground invasion is a non-starter. This translates into an all-out air war of attrition against military and economic targets, Israel perfected this after the 1967 war. The US will use its airpower, cruise missiles, and maybe even low-yield nuclear-tipped missiles to destroy underground sites. Is Iran capable of withstanding an all-out aerial attack, maybe not! Is Iran capable of a prolonged war of attrition on the ground against US assets and allies in the vicinity, most probably yes!
A simplistic western view is that Shias and Sunnis are at each other’s throats, the ongoing bloody-shedding in Iraq an existing model and any attack on Iran will be applauded by the Sunni muslim majority States surrounding Iran. They should think again, muslims in times of external attack tend to come together. Look at the recent Israel-Hezbollah conflict when without exception the Sunni populace through the muslim world supported Shia Hezbollah. Sunni-majority governments were mostly, with some exceptions, inimical to Shia Hezbollah, but had to fall in line with the emotions in the streets. An attack on Iran will be strongly condemned in (and by) Pakistan, no government will survive otherwise, in fact the government will be under pressure from the masses to do something solid to support Iran in its hour of need. Pakistan would hate being drawn even indirectly into the conflict, to keep out would require some tight-rope walking. The situation is complicated by the fact that while the governments of Sunni-majority States in the region, very friendly with Pakistan, will like nuclear Shia majority Iran be brought to heel, with the US doing that job can they survive the Israeli connection? Pakistan’s position is Catch-22, damned if you support Iran, and damned if you don’t!
In such a situation Pakistan faces multiple problems, both internal and external, complicated by sectarian considerations and our relations with known allies and yesterday’s foes. Very few in Pakistan realize the gravity of the situation and the possible danger to our continued existence as a nation. While the FATA treaty is holding domestically, tribal leaders have to do more to rein in the militants as per the terms of the accord. Hamid Karzai is talking through his Karakuli cap when he blames Pakistan’s official circles for supporting the Taliban, there is nothing official about it! However Taliban do come and go across our borders, not freely perhaps but it is in our own interest to eliminate their logistics support within our borders. Most Taliban recruits come from Afghan refugee camps, and from those living in our urban areas. The US should help Pakistan and Afghanistan to re-locate these camps within Afghanistan. Hamid Karzai, more or less a captive in the Presidential palace in Kabul, will be hard put to survive as Afghanistan streets, notoriously fickle, react to an attack on Iran. Coalition forces will face renewed attacks as the Taliban get a fresh wave of recruits because of the ensuing reaction.
The public airing of US intelligence reports about Pakistan being an Al-Qaeda haven by Negroponte, previously the US National Intelligence Czar and now Deputy Secretary of State, and Robert Gates, previously a CIA Chief and now re-incarnated as Donald Rumsfeld’s replacement as the Secretary Defence, should be wake-up call for Pakistan. If one looks at the build-up for Iraq, and now Iran, the similarity is striking. Both the intelligentsia and the masses in Pakistan seem to believe that Pakistan’s turn will come, the US$ 64000 question is, when?
With the likelihood that Pakistan’s support for Iran, even though ambivalent could become material because of public reaction, would western planners leave Pakistan’s nuclear assets in place? One cannot discount that possibility, the outside danger is that India could decide on a “final solution” for Pakistan, its airpower striking at our nuclear sites, or even suspected ones. Some may dismiss this “doomsday scenario” as alarmist, one prays that it is! Pakistan would suffer grievously but so could India. The Pakistani Armed Forces, and the PAF, even without their optimum requirements, are quite capable of responding quite vigorously, the nuclear deterrent notwithstanding. India has in the recent past chosen the path of peace and amity with Pakistan, the BJP government initiating the process, the Congress coalition force-multiplying it. Will India gamble its surging economic prosperity? Or will it take the mature route and keep out of “the grand design”? There may be less cause for alarm than the situation suggests, one would still exercise caution. Pakistani and Indian leaders should talk to each other earnestly, a cold analysis of the pitfalls of conflicts and the gains of peace will show that the latter is the correct path.
In the circumstances availing, the President and his two major parties, the Armed Forces and PML (Q)–led coalition, could meet with the main opposition political leaders, Ms Benazir and Mian Nawaz Sharif included, and start talking to each other!
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