Geo-Political Maturity
Taking on China along the McMohan Line in late 1962 (“PM Jawaharlal Nehru orders Jawans to throw the Chinese out”, screamed newspaper headlines), India was itself evicted from North East Frontier Agency (NEFA) in the East and Aksai Chin as well as adjoining areas in the West. Chinese stopped in the foothills (in fact at a place called Foothills) of the Himalayas, unilaterally declaring a cease-fire. Some Indian troops even crossed the border into (then) East Pakistan (mainly Sylhet) to escape the Chinese. Two Indian Infantry Corps ceased to exist as entities. The US rushed in help to equip 3-4 mountain divisions, willingly complying with the wish-list for arms and equipment, balking only at the Indian request for submarines. These could hardly be used in the Himalayas.
US Ambassador (to India) Chester Bowles May 25, 1965 Memo stated that Pakistan should remain a US ally but not at the cost of friendship with India. The famous Memo analyzed why it was important to support India as a potential strategic US ally to contain China, and to de-link US-Pakistan and US-India relationships from “the eternal triangle” it had become. Barely 3 years earlier (1962) India was the largest recipient of US military aid since South Korea in the early 1950s, the biggest military airlift than the one into Berlin in 1948. In an Houdini achievement India continued being actively aided by the US against the Chinese and somehow maintain its non-aligned status despite being an unabashed Soviet ally (military and economic) during the cold war era.
A general perception in Pakistan holds that Republican Presidents are more favorably inclined towards Pakistan than Democrat ones. Yet it was Republican President George Bush Sr who abandoned Pakistan at the end of the Afghan War in the late 80s, even stopping the sale of F-16s already paid for. Democrat Clinton took all the blame for leaving Pakistan high and dry to cope with the after-effects of the Afghan War, the influx of drugs, Kalashnikov culture and 2.5 million Afghan refugees still living in Pakistan. Pakistanis would not have been ecstatic at Bush Jr defeating Al Gore in 2000 if they had read his National Security Strategy (Condoleezza Rice was then National Security Adviser) on taking office in 2001 that called for building up India as a strategic ally to contain China. This was only temporarily derailed because of 9/11, “frustrated bride” India left standing at the altar when bridegroom USA started wooing Pakistan again. With Condoleeza Rice now Secretary of State and Indian Lobbyist Robert Blackwill (former US Ambassador to India and later Deputy National Security Advisor) working in tandem, US-India consummation as strategic allies has become a matter of fact 5 years later.
A general perception also exists in Pakistan that India has been rewarded for its years of anti-US policies, as usual Pakistan being shunted aside for being loyal to the US whenever US faces a crisis in the region. In the face of convenience why should we expect morality in inter-State relationships? A vast country with a population 7 times more than Pakistan, India has far more economic potential for trade-driven US than Pakistan, force-multiplied by super-development in Information Technology (IT). As the only country in the region other than Japan considered capable of containing China’s emerging superpower potential, promoting India economically was always on the cards by the US.
This new US-India compact puts India on a fast-track emergence as a Superpower, it creates new geo-political dynamics in the region and beyond, it does pose a danger to China. Even though it may not be true, with staunch US ally Israel a “Jewish” State and India primarily a “Hindu” one despite its secular credentials, one should excuse muslim apprehension (and imminent rhetoric) about the ganging up of a Christian-Jew-Hindu axis against Islam. Arguing that Iran’s civilian nuclear research could be converted to military use, can the US explain India’s access to advanced technology will not be transferred from the civilian nuclear reactors to the ones making nuclear bombs?
Blessed with an extensive agriculture base giving us a tremendous cotton-based industry as well as food autarky (how many nations can feed and clothe itself?), we have vast raw material resources including untapped reserves of oil and gas. Other than our talented manpower potential our greatest plus point is our geo-politically important location in middle Asia, a virtual crossroads of economic opportunity. A long coastline can have three more deep-water seaports to add to that at Karachi and the one being developed at Gwadar. A clear-cut “national security strategy” should define our long term political, economic and social objectives with the aim of securing our borders both from internal and external threats. Our Armed Forces must be organizationally structured for the techno- heavy 21st century into a lean, mean, fighting machine with adequate ground and air mobility. We need to put maximum investment into education, particularly in IT, science and related technologies. National Security Strategy cannot be based on perceptions but on the hard facts of reality.
Multi-purpose dams will give an economic boost but fundamental politico-economic initiatives are necessary viz (1) establishing the rule of law by making the judiciary truly independent, this includes fiscal self-management (2) implementing land reforms already on the statute books (3) eliminating Afghan Transit Trade and designating FATA as a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) to serve Afghanistan and Central Asia (4) investing heavily in education across the board, including technical skills and (5) carrying out sustained development all along the coastline between Karachi and Gwadar, setting up special industrial estates, etc. Like in India Pakistan must bank on non-Resident Pakistanis for fueling foreign direct investment (FDI). Our own place in the sun should not hold up India in comparison or vilify the US for choosing them over us. Even if our future is with China, Central Asia and the Middle East, in that priority, why should we turn away from the US, particularly when there is no reason to? A nation independent of automatic reciprocity will not be hostage to other’s foreign policy imperatives. This includes disengaging totally from Afghanistan, a predator country (with a generally predator population) incapable of functioning without handouts, an international basket case with no future as a nation. Afghanistan needs us, we don’t. Karzai is a spade, finally Musharraf lost his patience and called him one!
That the visit went courageously ahead in the background of the Karachi bomb blast is a great credit to George Bush. When the US President says that terrorists will not deter him, he means it. For those who say that not much was achieved, what would they have said if the visit had been cancelled? The Bush visit highlighted a very mature change in US-Pakistan relationship, viz (1) the US was not about to walk away from Pakistan once a crisis was over and (2) Pakistan’s romantic notions about being a “cornerstone” of US foreign policy was reduced to the correct order of priority, a few rungs in the pecking ladder below India. The continuity of our relationship underscores that Pakistanis will not get less emotional about it in the future, the US will be consistent and pro-active in its policies in the region as well as being more sensitive to Pakistan’s needs.
Pakistan has to de-link ourselves from the “Chanakhya” adage, “an enemy of an enemy is a friend”. We have to get rid of our India-fixation, Musharraf has called our perceptions India-centric, it is actually an India-phobia disease. India’s place in the sun is not at the cost of ours. We have to be pragmatic without unduly compromising our principles, maintaining a consistent nationalist policy that caters for regional and global compulsions. National aims and objectives should have only one priority, Pakistan first and Pakistan last.
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