Political Patchwork
One thing is constant about political dynamics in Pakistan, it keeps changing, only the period of change is uncertain. And being Prime Minister is a high risk proposition, if an assassin won’t get you, the President will. Destiny is smiling sweetly for the moment on Shaukat Aziz, a suicide bomber failed to blow him up and the real ruler of the sovereign State of Pakistan does not seem to be tiring of him, at least for the present. Very much like Julius Caesar the PM should beware the Ides of March, a month is a long time for political manipulation in Pakistan. With both affluence and poverty upwardly mobile, the latter in ratio unfortunately far more than the former, the economic realities at ground level is rather confusing. Already beyond the 7000 level, is the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) a true barometer of economic prosperity or just a crude measure of anticipated economic bliss in the distant future?
The feuding political families of Pakistan who have absolute control over the two major political parties, presently by remote control, came together in a photo-opportunity in the Holy Land in the week before Moharram. The bitter polarization that began post-1965 when a dissident faction split from the mainstream PML party and united with other leftist factions under late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto to create the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) seems to have abated somewhat if not fully run its course. There is a tantalizing hint of a political arrangement if not an actual agreement to go it together in the polls. While it may not have been his real intention Pervez Musharraf has managed to accomplish what they could never do by themselves in nearly four decades, the two families coming together for a civilized conversation. The rhetoric given to restoration of democracy aside, whether they themselves practice democracy when in power is open to question. What was far more noticeable was the absence of normal invective against the man responsible for their extended foreign “yatra”, and that too not on government expense.
Levity at the newly transplanted hair of the brothers Sharif and Shahbaz providing material for Tehmina Durrani’s future book “My Industrial Lord” aside, what is going on? The President must be commended in letting Asif Zardari out of prison, eight years is a long time waiting to be convicted for crimes that cannot be proven. Musharraf has set in motion a political process that is a must for Pakistan, formation of a representative government that can democratically tackle the various crisis that desperately need people-participation to solve, and which un-representative governments without real grass-roots contact do not have a hope in hell of solving. More than 50% of those in the National/Provincial Assemblies are not electable without “procedural” assistance (ISI and MI), such blatant manipulation has so badly sullied the electoral process that there is a severe lack of faith in the polling booth. In the possibly fairest elections ever in Pakistan in 1970, the PPP (or PML-D) won it fair and square in West Pakistan. The present group of PML (N) dissidents became PML (Q) in 2004, the present government is a coalition of a coterie of dissidents from mainline political parties.
The Zardari/Bhutto combine and the brothers Sharif (with or without their hair) are still a potent political power in Pakistan. While Shahbaz Sharif will certainly lose some ground among the shocked faithful in the intelligentsia because of the much-married lady he has recently got betrothed to, there will be no erosion of his political standing among the macho Punjabi masses. For various extraneous reasons of the US-kind Pervez Musharraf is engaged in a delicate political juggling act, given that he has to barter something in exchange for getting international recognition for retention of the COAS uniform uptil 2007. Musharraf has also to maintain a arms-length distance from the clerics, while showing “democratic progress” with the liberal-minded. Inviting the PPP, if not the PML (N), to come into the coalition government is a step in that direction. The likely scenario for change could be a PPP-led coalition in Sindh, the complication is that having wielded absolute power in the Province as well as considerable nuisance value in the Center because of their swing vote, the MQM will be loath to give that up and so we may be in for some fun and games of the violent-kind in Karachi. Whether the PPP will be invited into a coalition government of Pervez Elahi in the Punjab is a moot point but that is quite possible given accommodation to PML in Sindh. While Senator Aitzaz Ahsan is being seen as a dark horse (and excellent) PPP candidate for PM, it is highly unlikely that the President will send Shaukat Aziz to the sacrificial altar. Shaukat Aziz has done extremely well among international circles, projecting a clean liberal image for Pakistan, and he has not done too badly domestically either. While the poverty indicator is on the rise, the macro-economic indicators are all looking good even though the macro-political indicators, led by the crisis in Balochistan, are not so good.
As the elections in Iraq have shown, there is no substitute for democracy, or at least a deliberate movement towards it. Despite the blatant threat of violence 8.4 million voters comprising 59% of the electorate turning up to vote fares comparably with plunging voter percentages in the South Asian sub-continent. And as much we seem to take a swipe at the US for any (and all) perceived ills on the face of this Earth, one has to accept that having the elections was a great idea and the Iraqis responded to the challenge in numbers that justified that decision. The only real problem is that barely 25% of the Sunnis took part in the vote and there was no Sunni-list, this will create problems in the present and if not handled well by the Shia majority, and may become a reason for crisis in the future. With Pakistan facing internal political challenges of some consequence, not the least being the Kalabagh (or Bhasha) Dam decision, isn’t it time to go to the electorate and seek a fresh mandate, one that is for real and not contrived? However one may quantify the present performance of the present government, the making of it is political patchwork with barely credible democratic credentials. What is far more important is the non-existent ability of the present elected representatives to ensure that the streets do not boil over making the tough decisions necessary, only directly elected representatives can explain to the masses the need for making unpalatable choices. Too much has been contrived in the political melting pot for a credible brew, we cannot afford another question of credibility. One doesn’t see how the risk can be taken by a change of faces alone, major political initiatives were possible in 2003 had the PPP been more accommodating and less obdurate.
Despite our death-wish proclivity as a nation, destiny seems to give us repeated chances. The President has in the past shown his inherent ability to take tough decisions. Well, decision-making time is at hand again!
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