Gameplan Gone Awry
Every leader entering into conflict searches for ground and time of his own choosing, PM Atal Behari Vajpayee of India was no exception. Calling national elections much earlier than scheduled, the BJP satisfied itself that the conditions availing were extremely favourable for an outright victory. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) factored three major premises, viz (1) the “feel good” about “India Shining” riding the crest of an economic upsurge, (2) validation of Vajpayee as a very popular national leader, loved and respected within India, acclaimed abroad and (3) an 180 degree turn in the BJP stance against Pakistan, India now ostensibly pursuing the path of peace, symbolically marked by the start of structured political negotiations.
India’s phenomenal economic progress in the past decade translated itself into political power for India externally and for BJP internally. India would already be recognized as a world player in the “China-Class” if Kashmir did not act as a drag. Its IT sector outstripped developed and developing countries alike, Bangalore became an alternate Silicon Valley. Software aside, “out-sourcing” from the US and other G-8 countries has become a major foreign exchange earner, giving gainful employment to the perennially suffering middle class. A broad spectrum of the rich and the middle class made more money to spend on a consumer-driven boom giving fact to the “feel good” environment. Regretfully trickle-down economics stopped well short of the rural masses where most of India lives and that is where a backlash to “India Shining” started. As the electoral results have shown, public perception looks for instant returns. Mobile phones and gas connections cuts no ice with those who cannot afford them, they need food, water and shelter. The normally chauvinistic BJP leaned backwards in attempting to woo the muslim vote, critical as a swing factor in many constituencies, giving them far more party seats than at anytime earlier. This was in vain. Despite Vajpayee’s credibility and personal commitment, the Gujerat factor was too much for the muslims to ignore. BJP became victims of their own hype. Without exception all analysts (Opposition included) pointed to an overwhelming mandate for the BJP, predicting far easier governance in contrast to its razor-thin majority of a disparate coalition of many regional partners, many with widely differing agendas and always outspoken about getting their pound of flesh far in excess of their actual nuisance value.
The BJP had initially seen its position erode among the electorate, losing a number of State elections. The 1999 election had been fought on the “Kargil factor”. The confrontation with Pakistan during the whole of 2002 and the Gujerat carnage orchestrated by hardliner BJP CM Narendra Modi had given BJP a tremendous boost in the ensuing State elections in Gujerat, the “Modi” model routing the Sonia Gandhi-led Congress in most States and reversing the anti-BJP trend in subsequent elections. Why they abandoned this winning formula for one eulogizing their economic resurgence is now being questioned by BJP hardliners. This spectacular failure will be blamed on Vajpayee, far more secular than BJP’s ideological credentials, he probably swayed his colleagues to gamble on it. BJP continued to target the Italian background of the Congress President as being “unfit” to rule over India. On other hand, Sonia Gandhi successfully persevered with her personal “selection and maintenance of aim” of keeping aloft the Nehru dynasty flag in Indian politics till “Bumiputras” Rahul and Priyanka came of age, their launch into the electoral fray was carefully orchestrated and delivered to maximum electoral effect. Congress also successfully targeted the apprehension of the minorities for BJP’s “Hindutva” culture.
While region-oriented politics is not palatable to nationalistic-minded purists, they are more inwardly looking and pander to the voters’ inclinations about food on the table, education, the prices of essentials, medical facilities, availability of water, electricity and gas, etc. Accountability of leaders and good governance thereof at the grassroots level brings the fruits of democracy to the people. One may tend to dismiss Laloo Prasad Yadav as a clown, the fact of the matter is that he delivers to the Bihar electorate that votes him (and his) into power, the champion of both to the minorities and the poor, he vociferously articulates (and addresses) their grievances and aspirations. There may yet be a compromise PM from one of the smaller parties, Mulayam Singh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party is a strong contender on the strength of his strong secular credentials.
With exit polls came the first sign of trouble for BJP and a change in analysts’ projections, a drop in the BJP-led Coalition’s previous Parliamentary count of 302 and a hung parliament. The fact that BJP and its allies would drop down to 187 seats and Congress and its allies would get 215 sets was totally unexpected, for gainers and losers alike. The “Rest” had 135 seats with the Left Front having 72 of these. A prediction close to reality about the national elections (640 million voters, about 350 million cast their votes) was only possible wherever there was concurrent State elections. This litmus test came with Andhra Pradesh on May 10 where national and State elections took place concurrently was a shocker! Given the Chandrababu Naidu’s track record of good governance based on an IT-managed State, his Telegu Desam Party (TDP) was expected to easily get an overwhelming mandate again. Contrary to pre-polls prediction, Chandrababu Naidu was routed, the resurgent Congress (alongwith its regional ally) getting almost 226 seats of the 294 being voted for. This contra-wave sent a shudder throughout India as to the eventual results, Mumbai Stock Market crashing more than 4.5% on May 11, wiping out over Rs 13 billion.
Despite the early results on May 13 showing the trend to be positive for Congress and only the scale of the BJP defeat needing to be tabulated, Congress wanted till midday before finally finding its voice and claiming victory. While by no means it was a rout, nine ministers including Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha lost their seats, by mid-afternoon BJP had conceded defeat and PM Vajpayee did the democratic thing by handing in his resignation to President Kalam. An initial assessment showed that BJP was on the revulsion end of a major backlash among the voters who saw the “India Shining” slogan benefitting only a small fraction of the population. The Mumbai Stock Market stuttered before firming up with the possibility of a stable Congress government rather than a hung Parliament. This major electoral upset will see the new Indian Government tailor its economic policies to address the issues that the electorate has grievance about, like a CPI (M) leader of the Left Front claimed, “why should we privatize profits and nationalise losses?” A Left of Center Congress-led Government may not go socialist overnight, after all it was Congress stalwart Sardar Manmohan Singh (and a candidate for PM if Sonia Gandhi passes), who initiated the present reforms in 1992. There will be far more emphasis on public investment in the social infra-structure, as it should be. Market forces need to be supported by the public sector in developing countries, it is the masses we must worry about, not a few fat cats living off public funds. Developing countries cannot afford to hand over the kitchen sink and the mess silver to the entrepreneur lock, stock and barrel, there has to be a genuine and pragmatic private sector – public sector mix.
What does it mean for Pakistan? Necessary apprehension at the loss of a tested negotiating partner and the accompanying staff work at the pre-negotiation state? Sonia Gandhi may or may not become the PM, “as the power that is” she has immediately signalled her desire to do more than BJP for peace with Pakistan. A short hiccup comes with any change of government, but the new Congress-led Indian Government should not take long in sitting down with Pakistan for serious discussions. All said and done, one must look at India with envy, here not only democracy works and the rule of law is generally supreme, the vote is a sacred trust where it is allowed to be cast freely and counted correctly. If not in Pakistan, one can be satisfied that at least the majority in South Asia (have the luxury of and) benefit because of their free vote!
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