Bangladesh, Democracy In Crisis

Completing their 5-year term in late Oct 2006, Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) duly handed over power to a Caretaker Regime. In a strategic mistake, the Awami League (AL)-led opposition did not agree to Retired Chief Justice K M Hassan, the man who (according to the Constitution) was to be the Head of the Caretaker Regime, as being “partial” to BNP. A man of great integrity and known impartiality, Justice Hassan himself refused the office, leaving the doors open for the President Iajuddin Ahmed (who is very partial to BNP) to double as Chief Advisor. With the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Zakaria clearly BNP-partisan, there was no way that the AL-led 14 party alliance was going to accept this “double whammy”. The resultant 60 days of street unrest, resolved only when the President agreed to send Zakaria on leave beyond the election date and announcement of results thereof.  Four of the Advisors resigned rather than not being able to fulfill their responsibilities to the citizens of Bangladesh under the Constitution.  Subsequently another three resigned, refusing to be rubber stamps of the President, dozens of honourable men and women also denied to be Advisor-posts on the same grounds.  With both sides taking up intractable positions, foreign governments and international institutions applied enormous pressure on both sides to compromise before events spun out of control.

A day or so before Christmas, both sides let go just enough for the deadlock to break. On Tuesday Dec 26, 2006, the last day for filing nominations, the AL-led 14 party coalition filed their nominations, with a number of party stalwarts crossing the divide to other parties when denied their own party tickets. Gen Ershad’s Jatiyo Party (JP) finally went with the AL-led coalition, briefly they had been with Khaleda Zia’s BNP. AL gave Ershad a quota   53   or  so   seats  (against a demand of 60)  to   fight   the elections, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), composed mainly of BNP-Dissidents, got about 23 seats (out of 30 demanded).

The incumbency factor is firmly against the BNP in the major cities, the residual effects of bad governance and corruption compounded by strikes and demonstrations. On the other hand, the BNP’s record of restoring law and order has gone down extremely well in the rural areas. Despite the careful machinations of two years of planning for the general elections by staffing the election machinery (at least 180 Returning Officers (ROs) are clearly BNP-partisan), the contest will be fairly even, with neither side capable of winning a majority. While the AL has always been popular, its last minute electoral adjustment to accommodate the Islamic alliance “Khelafat Majlis” has shocked some of the AL-faithful and clouded their secular leanings. With neither major party likely to get a clear majority, the post-election loyalties of their coalition allies would be severely tested. With Gen Ershad’s JP, Khaleda Zia would have got a clear majority, without that support her position becomes a bit more shaky. It is to be seen if Ershad will be allowed to contest, his appeal against conviction for corruption has been turned down on Dec 26, 2006, even than he has filed nomination papers for 5 seats, including one from Dhaka.

The public is extremely forgiving of the benign dictator, only last week the possible “Queen Maker” stole the show from Hasina Wajed at a coalition public meeting by tearfully pleading with the crowd to forgive him for his many “mistakes”, his virtuoso performance reducing quite a segment of the mainly AL crowd to tears. Today he is in the AL camp, what happens after the elections?    My bet is that he will go with whoever makes him President.  Given the choice of being in power or out in the cold, both the parties will willingly bite the “Ershad” bullet.   Corruption is not a main concern in the elections, it is a fact of life with nearly all the political parties (no different from Pakistan).

The Bangladesh Army has been under extreme pressure to step in. In an exclusive dinner a few days ago with the present Chief of Army Staff Lt Gen Moeen Ahmad, one got a unique chance to understand his situation. With his permission to quote him (almost) verbatim, “even though I have had sleepless nights with both serving and retired persons as well as many in the political and business community, etc urging the Army to fill the “void”, I am determined that the Army will not violate its oath. This young democracy only 16 years old and we do not want to go back to square one. We will continue to give mature advice to all in the electoral process to fulfill the responsibilities of a democracy. The Army will stay in a subservient role to civilian authority as is mandated to us constitutionally.  The Army has no business running the government, we will support any civilian authority on the basis of a fair, equitable vote”, unquote.  For someone who strongly believes that the Army has no role whatsoever in politics and governance thereof, this was beautiful music. A graduate of the first batch of the Bangladesh Military Academy (BMA) in Chittagong, Moeen was commissioned in 1975 (four years after the creation of Bangladesh) in a battalion that was raised (as a Major) in 1949 by my late father Col A M Sehgal, and to which I was myself commissioned in 1965.  The Bangladesh Army’s COAS has run the gamut of a full professional soldier’s career in both command and staff ( he also served as Defence Attache in Pakistan), becoming the Chief of General Staff (CGS) before his elevation to COAS.  Gen Moeen symbolizes the professionalism of the Bangladesh Army and the maturity of its hierarchy, one is extremely period of him.

Notwithstanding the frank and courageous stance of Gen Moeen   in  the   circumstances  availing,   the political scenario in Bangladesh is (in army parlance), in Phase 1.  Phase 2 will be the electoral process itself, the rigging and manipulations inherently planted in the system making it fraught with danger.  One does not expect the losing side, being send out into the political cold for the next five years, to accept the results. One will be very surprised if Phase 3, the post-election scenario, does not descent into chaos and anarchy, the portents of a long cold political impasse.  That is when the professionalism of the Bangladesh Army will be really tested. While the easy route will be to step in and become the “saviours” of the State, one believes that other than a full-blown catastrophe, they will follow the more difficult choice of being subservient to civilian authority and staying out of the governance of the country.  What the form of the “civilian authority” will be if the situation breaks down completely, I will not take any bets on.

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