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Electoral Process In Bangladesh

It is very difficult in the third world to hold free and fair elections, the result is always contested by the loser. This has both political and economic repercussions for the State. Every regime in power uses its incumbency to tilt the elections in its favour, the normal modus operandi pre-elections is to put its own supporters to run the Local Administration and the Election Commission, making it that much easier to try any number of manipulations in rigging the elections.  For influencing the outcome of the vote there is nothing more potent in third world countries than using police functionaries at the street level. An honest election is only possible if supervised by a genuinely neutral administration looking after governance and affairs of the State for the period leading to elections as well as transition of authority to whoever is the winner.  One of the better innovations to the Bangladesh Constitution was the institution of the Caretaker Cabinet (called Advisors to the President) to oversee General Elections.  The formula agreed by all parties was that the last retired Chief Justice of the Supreme Court would be the Chief Advisor.

With Bangladesh polarized equally between Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Hasina Wajed’s Awami League (AL), and both having ruled the country alternately, the institution of a Caretaker entity gives credibility to an election process, not only in the eyes of the world but more importantly within Bangladesh. Bangladesh was lucky in the first two elections to have as Chief Election Commissioner MA Syed, a first rate civil servant of utmost integrity.  Even though AL launched country-wide street protest in the last successfully held elections that swept Khaleda Zia to power in a landslide, the elections were generally taken to be free and fair. Despite the agitation, the BNP government completed its term of office. Leaving nothing to chance this time around, the BNP picked a Chief Election Commissioner whose leaning was well known to be partisan towards BNP.  To add to that, the man meant to head the Caretaker Cabinet, the last Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Justice Hassan, was also perceived by the Opposition to have deep-rooted sympathies for BNP.  The refusal of AL-led opposition to accept him as the Head of the Caretaker Cabinet was hardly surprising.  With the worst rioting in the streets for some years, causing more than a dozen dead and numerous injured, and with considerable loss of property, Justice Hasan refused the job and the President  ended  the  impasse  by  taking over also as Head of Government and appointing a Cabinet of Advisors.  Faced with the possibility of the Army moving into the vacuum, the Opposition protests subsided for the moment.

The Chief Advisor-to-be, Chief Justice (Retired) Hasan, may have been a BNP supporter in his early years, as a judge he was known to be honest and upright.  In fact the BNP Government was reconciled to compromising on the more potent appointment, the Chief Election Commissioner M A Aziz, tacitly agreeing to replace him with a more neutral person.  The Opposition has those lost out on both counts and obviously they are reacting badly in this situation, the threat of military intervention notwithstanding.  To avoid trouble, and given the fact that the Head of the Caretaker Administration is a BNP-elected President, the BNP would do well to replace the Chief Election Commissioner, this gesture will go a long way in restoring the credibility and sanctity of the electoral process.  Such initiatives require political maturity, it is to be seen what route the BNP chooses, one of national compromise or the more obvious one of prolonged confrontation

At this time the BNP may be sitting pretty, this situation may detiorate to BNP’s disadvantage. Despite the other parties ganging up with the AL, BNP’s alliance with the religious parties should give it about enough votes between to hold off any challenge. Even though the electorate has some genuine grievances against the Khaleda Zia government, the alternative available may not be good enough to vote for a change. Ershad, unpredictable as ever, is using his Jatiyo Party (JP) card as blackmail, his joining the BNP-led Alliance would have been comprehensive insurance for another stint far Khaleda Zia as PM.  Ershad’s demands are steep, it is believed that other than asking for 40 constituencies allocation for his party, he is asking for quite a handsome packet of money.  Some things never change!  The elections will be a close run thing, that is if India does not give Hasina Wajed the kiss of political death by supporting her openly, as they would prefer to. On the other hand, Pakistan could do the same disfavour to Khaleda Zia by supporting her candidacy. While AL has deep roots in the body politic of Bangladesh and will have far more seats than in the last Parliament, it may not be enough. While a strong Opposition is a wonderful tonic for genuine democracy, one hopes that if either side wins it will be enough to avoid, viz (1) a hung Parliament or (2) the result close enough to give the smaller partner in a coalition a Sword of Damocles for political blackmail.

While Bangladesh has politically come of age, the polarization   has  manifested  itself  in  street  strife,  stunting the national aspiration for economic emancipation of the predominately poor in the population.  The campaign of tit-for-tat strikes has been negative politics at its worst. Whatever economic progress Bangladesh has made, and that has not been insignificant, has not been able to keep up with the population increases.  A period of political peace and respite from flood and cyclone disasters, and given that the country is floating on oil and gas, and capable of feeding and clothing itself, Bangladesh has the potential of becoming a very viable economic entity. As a regional powerhouse it could well be the economic center of the whole of eastern South Asia, with the eastern States of India surrounding three-fifths of the country, one-fifth bounded by Burma and the balance washed by the waters of the Bay of Bengal.  People seem to believe that huge populations are an economic hinderance, one believes otherwise.  The greater the number of consumers, more the economic opportunity.  Bangladesh has a great human potential, give them buying power and it will become what it was three centuries ago before the British arrived, Sonar Bangla, Golden Bangladesh.

A word of caution for the military in Bangladesh, there will always be a temptation “to set things right”, it could well go all wrong.  Numerous failures in governance have its origins in Martial Laws, Pakistan and Bangladesh are bad examples of people coming in for short time, than staying forever till Destiny decrease otherwise, limitless uninhibited ambition destroying the very fabric of society.  The military-rule route should only be used, and that too for the shortest possible time, if absolute anarchy is imminent. The caretaker model, should be adopted by Pakistan, crafting it to local circumstances, the country’s electoral system must become a credible process. Given an excellent model one hopes that sensible leaders in Bangladesh will give the electoral process the credibility it badly needs, not only for third world countries but as one has seen in the US in the year 2000, in the countries of the first world also.

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