Investing In Reality
Writing in TIME magazine issue of March 13, 2006, noted analyst Alex Perry says that three days before US President Bush arrived in Hyderabad “to praise everything that is right about India”, Naxalites (Marxists who take their name from the 1967 villagers’ revolt in Naxalbari) killed 30 government followers in a landmine attack a short distance away. An estimated 10000 Naxalite guerillas control hundreds of square miles in the central hinterland. Taking over an entire town in November 2005 for a few hours, Naxalites freed 400 prisoners from the district jail. The Naxal movement claimed 892 lives in 2005, up from the 653 killed in 2004.
Armed insurgencies cause daily casualties in Mizoram, Nagaland, Manipur, Assam, etc, not counting Kashmir a total of 17 or 18 full-fledged insurgencies. Most of Bihar is in a state of anarchy, motorists are advised to head for safety if they have a flat tire. Last Monday two trains were attacked, one with 200 passengers. With Maoist guerillas increasingly active throughout rural Nepal, anarchy is likely to also spill over into a wide swath of Uttar Pradesh (UP). Economically resurgent and very visibly so, India has its share of militancy-creating and sustaining problems. In the face of all this India’s international image of “Incredible India” is really incredible, and praiseworthy. To its great credit India is not only coping with the disparate militancies but effectively keeping them under wraps from international cynosure.
Conscious of rural deprivation (thousands of farmers have committed suicide in the past year because of failed crops and crushing debt load), the Manmohan Singh government is giving priority to rural poverty alleviation schemes to curb rural resentment. In this fine balancing act, without the rich becoming richer the poor could not be made less poor. The boom in the Indian economy is very real and very positive, proliferating prosperity acting as the engine of change for the whole nation, give and take a few hundred million. Militancy and lawlessness in varying degrees is present all over South Asia. Instead of gloating over each other’s misfortunes and problems, South Asians would be better off helping each other wherever they can, however they can and whenever they can. One way of helping each other is to find solutions to bi-lateral disputes, or alternately or coming to feasible compromise arrangements. India is the economic locomotive for whole of South Asia.
The two existing militancies in Pakistan each need different approach in different degrees, needing economic input, both also need political handling. The rule of law must be established by the civilian forces of law and order, the military only called in to ensure internal security when paramilitary forces fail. The military’s aid-to-civil power must depend upon two primary factors, viz (1) the level of militancy existing and (2) the level required to be curbed to, keeping in mind, viz (1) the militants are Pakistani until proven otherwise and (2) collateral damage among non-combatants has to be avoided. The prime mission must be “image damage-control”.
Late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto enforced Governor’s rule with Akbar Bugti as Governor by sacking Governor Ghaus Bux Bizenjo and the elected political government of Chief Minister Sardar Ataullah Khan Mengal. The political government decided in 1973 to use the military for political purposes, the reaction was full-scale insurrection in the Marri and Mengal areas. Forced into insurgency by their Sardars the tribals lived (and still live) in extreme poverty in primitive conditions for the most part, having nothing except a mudroof over their heads, no electricity, no water, no sanitation, no education, no medicine, no nothing, period! The permissive cruelty of the hereditary rulers is illustrated graphically by the despair written on the faces of the rural Baloch. Almost anyone who came into contact with the military units begged them to stay and not leave them to the mercy of the tribal Sardars. A small core of tribals (blindly loyal to the Sardars) continued to fight us, and fight very well, for no reason except because the Sardar said so. While they had the stomach to fight one got the distinct impression that their heart was not in it. Why did only a small number of Marris and Mengals bear arms? Except for a hard core, the feudals never trust their own flock. Their autocracy being enforced through fear, they fear that some among their own tribe may turn their guns on them. Instead of consolidating the gains made on the ground through the military’s blood and sweat we abandoned the tribals to their vicious rulers. A policy of appeasement by the Federal and Provincial Governments since 1977 has seen the Sardars again raise militias, this time with sophisticated weapons available in the wake of the Afghan War, and help from our so-called “friends” with a vested interest in keeping Balochistan aflame. No civilized society can afford that the rule of law is flouted by violent means, it is an invitation to anarchy. Anyone outside the pale of law and using violent means to subvert it thereof is a criminal and must be dealt with as such.
Hamstrung by political initiatives, the Frontier Corps (FC) in Balochistan has done an excellent job. Without adequate manpower and proper equipment they have the two districts (out of 26) affected within reasonable control. While recruiting, training and getting better equipped to levels that can adequately cope with the ongoing tribal militancy, FC have presently reacted to attacks with restraint and without going on the offensive themselves. This “containment” has been good enough to keep the Army from getting involved in Internal Security (IS) Duties. Once FC Balochistan is ready, operations to root out the militants must go hand-in-hand with development activity to ameliorate the lot of the poor Baloch, who have only suffered (and are suffering) at the hands of their cruel and greedy Sardars. While economic initiatives must go apace with political initiatives across the whole spectrum, we cannot allow criminals to go free. At this moment Akbar Bugti’s bluff has been called by the forces of law and order, he is on the run and desperately hoping that his friends in the media will get him relief on the negotiating table.
During the Afghan War the Federal Administered Territorial Areas (FATA) served not only as a fertile recruiting ground for Mujhahideen, it also served us launch pads for operations across the border and logistics in support of Mujhahideen operations. With agriculture sparse and almost nothing else to fuel the local economy, the male population work as hired guns, smugglers, etc to eke out a living. We must phase out the Afghan Transit Trade and declare FATA as a Special Economic Zone, without duties on goods and commodities the FATA economy will be energized, our smugglers will become businessmen, and hopefully even industrialists. And what’s new? To start with Afghanistan, and later all Central Asian States, will order goods and commodities from this giant logistics base for the region. Incentives are already being proposed for industries manufacturing goods in FATA, the US accepting in principle importing goods without duties from such Zones without duties.
The Army has already broken the back of the militancy but it may require to do an extensive mopping-up, force-multiplying political and economic initiatives. Foreigners having families must not be disturbed provided they give due parole that they will not participate in any militant activity. When the people of the area perceive the benefits to be accrued from the economic initiatives they will convince the misguided to come in from the cold for the general public good. They will provide the inherent security needed for investment.
India is a shining example where even in the presence of widespread militant activity proliferating throughout the land, economic uplift is very much possible. We have a great opportunity before us to turn adversity into economic boom.
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