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The PM’s US visit – Perception versus reality

The media portrayed the PM’s visit a disaster, reality in fact was quite different. Perception was acquired from the two ceremonial swords presented to him by US Defence Secretary Senator Cohen during his visit to the Pentagon in contrast to the flood of war material in the 80s at the height of the Afghan war. The message seemed to be that the swords were all the military aid we were going to get. But the fact is that because of the PM’s visit the contentious saga of the F-16s will come to an end on Dec 31, 1998, moreover the US seems to recognise our legitimate conventional defence needs in more or less the same manner as they once did. With respect to economic aid, there is now good reason to believe that the world is not keen on seeing us as a basket-case because Pakistan in turmoil would destabilize the region. There was evidence that the White House was arm-twisting the IMF to come through with a bail-out but the media seemed to suggest that this enthusiasm seemed to become soft when the IMF Board Meeting became scheduled for January 1999. However the reality is that this was just a procedural matter, not a signal delay. To underscore our media-predicament, because of default on US export credit under PL-480, credit meant for wheat was temporarily suspended but then immediately restored on removal of default. But then wheat exports under easy credit are more important to farmers in the US heartland than to Pakistan and as everyone knows the US mid-west has a very influential lobby in the US Congress. Despite dire predictions on the diplomatic front, the PM seemed to hold his ground, compromised to an extent by bad media vibes, unleashed by forces that care two hoots about the national interest when compared to their own crass personal motivations.

The PM walked into the White House straitjacketed by handicaps. Pakistan is presently not in any position to credibly address three major US concerns viz. (1) nuclear non-proliferation (2) drugs smuggling and (3) terrorism, complicated by the lack of a sophisticated media and PR campaign in the corridors of US power centres in Washington. That the PM was able to address these to receptive US understanding is good progress. After the May 28 blast which to a great extent was condoned by US and Western Powers as avoidable but an understandable gut reaction to the Indian nuclear blasts earlier that month, Pakistan had a unique chance of immediately going the high road by making known its intention about CTBT. At that time the powers-that-be accepted the fact that Pakistan was justified in reacting to Indian nuclear initiative in order to counter the security advantage. The CTBT signing when it comes will put India under pressure. However, this is presently only a bargaining chip, in the meantime the economic situation worsened and we came under severe foreign exchange pressure. The scales tilted against Pakistan as we lurched from crisis to crisis, not the least being inter-Province imbalance and the introduction of Shariah Bill (CA-15) in the National Assembly. In the circumstances our only hope for a favourable US posture seemed to be if we would compromise on various issues, especially on nuclear non-proliferation.

 It is quite apparent that over the space of several telephone calls a personal chemistry had developed between the PM and the US President. Bill Clinton is shackled by various US laws in helping out countries having suspicion of nuclear intention capabilities. In our case US Congress ostracism is more focused (and unfair), there being the country-specific Pressler Amendment which has been used against Pakistan for the last 8 to 9 years. Furthermore there are other US laws which do not confine themselves only to nuclear non-proliferation (like the Glenn Amendment) but extend to areas of drug smuggling and terrorism. Though there is no doubt about Clinton’s genuine enthusiasm to help Pakistan, it will take considerable effort in the US Congress both by the US Government and the Pakistan lobby to ease the laws to allow Pakistan some leeway. The good news is that there is now an objective move in this direction. The US knows that any government in Pakistan has to contend with a powerful military and conservative lobby in Pakistan and Mian Nawaz Sharif (or anyone else for that matter) could not survive a compromise on security issues.

As far as Pakistan’s expectations are concerned we had a whole list of problems, in some of which we expected some succour from the only Superpower left in the world. To begin with were the severe pressures on our Foreign Exchange Reserves and looming default thereof. Externally we face an isolation in the region and the approbation of the western powers because of the Taliban. Internally we have moved to solve the deteriorating law and order situation in Karachi but three of the Provinces are being gradually estranged from Punjab and that is a very serious long-term problem. The country is split on the issue of the Shariah Bill (CA-15) and more and more ad hoc solutions are being applied where treatment other than merely applying band aid and hoping for the best is necessary. On the military front, a lack of funds means that the constant modernisation required to upkeep a modern defence force is now lacking, particularly for the Air Force where we are outnumbered by the Indian Air Force, even if our Air Force pilots managed to equal the balance somewhat by their superior training and motivation. As such the very fact that after many years we are going to get our money back, US$ 350 million in cash out of US contingency funds for out of court settlement called “Judgement Funds” and possibly US$ 151 million in form of wheat, the balance US$ 157 million (of the US$ 658 million) already having been paid in instalments. Mian Nawaz Sharif walked in (and out) of the Oval Office exuding the confidence of an incurable optimist despite being served in Washington by pompous self-serving egocentric Ambassador Riaz Khokhar, absorbed in his own importance, having no feel for the real-politik of Washington.

 The media gave out that the US and Pakistan remained at cross purposes, this is blatant disinformation. As articulated by Information Minister Mushahid Hussain, the US set of security concerns differs much from ours, as such our approach to issues may be different. The results of this visit may not be on display in the next few weeks or months either but there was enough tilt in it towards Pakistan for the Indians to yell blue murder. They were not happy about the initiatives taken by the US President to lift some economic restraints. Diplomatically one can count it as a success, because of controversy over the size of the delegation and bad media management it became a PR disaster. Foreign Policy seems to have finally come out of the 50-60s closet, we are not straitjacketed anymore by the gnomes of yesteryears inhabiting the Foreign Office.

 Back at home a long list of problems awaited the Prime Minister. As much as he may wish that these problems should have gone away during his visit abroad, reality awaited him. The Opposition is up in arms and become more coherent and credible by the day. With our money situation bleak, friend and foe alike are asking, where’s the moolah? The sheen of the PM’s US visit may not last through Ramzan if the prices of essentials go up as they are threatening to do. During the month of fasting tempers become frayed easily. One should learn from one’s mistakes and try not to repeat the mistakes if another chance is given. The country is living on a thin edge and the loss of expectations can easily turn this peaceful land into a cauldron. Perception then may well become a reality!

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