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Damage control

Even for a country used to rapid changes in its destiny, the months of May and June 1998 have at least equalled if not surpassed our past history of ups and downs. From the limits of despair on May 11 to the high point of euphoria on May 28 was a substantial change by any measure. We now begin July back in the throes of impending disaster, economic and political. Far from capitalising on their golden moments, the Mian Nawaz Sharif regime’s performance has been disappointing in not being able to exploit the opportunities it had at the beginning of June. The result has been sustained confusion and ambiguity that has made even the future of this country uncertain. As a confirmed admirer of Mian Nawaz Sharif for some time, it is sad to note that Mian Sahib has lost opportunity after opportunity to institutionalise a crisis management process, simply because he cannot seem to grow out of the flattery dished out by his inner circle.

What Pakistan needs is damage control, urgently and relentlessly, the economy occupying pride of place. Whereas the imposition of emergency in the wake of the blast was necessary for a few days to exercise control over the foreign currency accounts in the first few days, the uncertain course followed thereafter, with directive after directive having contradictory instructions has panicked the currency market. Even when the government finally moved to stabilise the Rupee by a 4.4% official devaluation, a virtual run continues and from a kerb market of Rs. 46.00 to the US dollar on June 1, the Rupee fell to Rs. 54.25 on July 1, 1998, an effective devaluation of almost 20%. At the moment, at least US$ 3.5 billion in the foreign currency accounts is being used as collateral, mostly by resident Pakistanis. While off-setting that amount, the accounts of the non-resident foreign currency account holders could have been unfrozen immediately so that a measure of confidence in Pakistan’s economic viability is restored among overseas Pakistanis. This rule must also apply to resident Pakistanis who receive pensions from abroad. The PM has announced revival of Foreign Currency Accounts as they existed on May 28, there is ambiguity still. Unless positive action is taken, no Pakistani abroad is going to open foreign currency accounts again in Pakistan.

The second area for urgent attention is the Foreign Office. Even when going through the worst crisis this country has faced since 1971, there is no urgency in the corridors where foreign policy is to be formulated. And what foreign policy? A hackneyed version of cold war era initiatives having no relevance to reality in the present age! And now we learn that Mian Nawaz Sharif seeks advice from former Indian PM IK Gujral, a person who is 100 times (or more) dangerous than the BJP Brahman trio of Thakre, Advani and Vajpayee who rule India presently put together. It was Gujral’s doctrine of regional sub-groupings during the short time he was PM that isolated Pakistani within SAARC. Now a BJP insider has confessed that Gujral had cleared it with BJP before inviting Pakistan for the series of talks that led to nowhere. The Foreign Office failed the PM and the country by not warning the PM against the knife cloaked in Gujral’s honey and sugar approach. Their responses throughout this present crisis has similarly been hidebound. We needed to soften the effect of sanctions by convincing the west that it was in their interest to pedal a soft approach to Pakistan, instead we got stuck in the pre-May 28 stance when even US President Clinton pleaded with Pakistan not to detonate (and we excitedly counted how many times he had rung up the PM). How many times after May 28 has he rung up the PM? Unless we completely revamp our Foreign Office machinery and bring their rationale at par with reality, instilling a modicum of pragmatism among their initiatives, we will flounder as we are doing now. George Clemenceau said that “war is too important to be left to generals”, peace is too important to be left to diplomats, particularly of the Pakistan Foreign Office-kind.

The Sharifs have made a lot of promises they cannot keep even if they want to, the intention by itself a matter of conjecture. For me, the high point was the Mian Nawaz Sharif promise on prime time TV to pay off all the family debts to the banks by asking the banks to sell off the assets. It requires courage to liquidate assets built up by hard work, obviously loans by itself do not create industries, ingenuity and hard work do. Now many weeks have elapsed and we still do not have an accurate rendering of (1) how much are the debts? (2) how are they offset? and (3) what is the transparent modus operandi for their squaring off? For the personal credibility of the PM it is vitally necessary that the process he announced with the national agenda be expedited. Mr. Ardeshir Cowasjee, my respected friend, has kept a bet with me that this liquidation process will be still-born, the bedrock of the reason for my bet is trust in Mian Nawaz Sharif’s word. A lot of people say that the Sharifs only keep their promises to their inner circle and the rest is simply a ploy for time and consumption by a gullible public. For the sake of the Sharifs one hopes that this is false. And by the way I went to the so-called “palace” at Raiwind. Besides a well-kept good-sized farm, there was a most modern hospital built on state-of-the-art parameters and including within the premises boys and girls schools as well as Nurses Institute. The 80-year-old patriarch of the Sharif family has a known history of charitable initiatives and this complex coming up within a short span of 14 months is a reminder that the wealthy have a duty towards the not so affluent that must be practically expressed, not given lip-service as most of us are apt to do. If I were Mian Nawaz Sharif I would be proud of what his old man has done and continues to do during his lifetime. The hospital is an excellent symbol of philanthropy, let us at least be objective in our criticism and not get carried away with criticism for the sake of it. What the younger Sharifs can do for Pakistan in exercise of the mandate given by the people of Pakistan in 1997 is to trust people from out of their inner circle. In fact time (and goodwill) is running out for the Sharifs in this respect, if they continue to rely on bad advice and do not have anyone in their inner circle capable of exercising restraint on their urges, it may see them out of power — and that would indeed be a tragedy, particularly in the face of lack of credible alternatives for Pakistan.

Which brings us to the process of decision-making. Leaders often tend to rely on instincts but in this modern world one has to rely on credible information and options available. If both are not forthcoming in quantities required then even instinct fails. Moreover one cannot keep on changing decisions to suit the time of the day, it is better to play safe by delaying a decision rather than be sorry and waste valuable time in subsequent damage control. While one cannot rely on the advice of technocrats and experts alone as their advice is usually void of human considerations, an institutionalised process for advice from a broad spectrum is necessary. There is evidence that in many of the controversial decisions that have rebounded on Mian Nawaz Sharif there was a singular lack of consultation except from a small coterie of flatterers. This is dangerous for the country and very damaging to the Sharifs, to have a public perception that they listen only to what they want to hear and act accordingly on their own premises and assumptions based on a foundation of public adulation rather than any well-thought out strategy. Public adulation is fickle, words are no substitute for bread. As the Rupee declines rapidly against the US dollar and the government is forced to print notes to keep up with deficits, the eroding of buying power may bring the masses on the streets, anarchy may well result, we are close to it. Decisive leadership invariably decentralises authority and acts on concerted intelligent opinion rather than react to the slogan of the day. The ultimate damage control that the Mian Nawaz Sharif regime must exercise is on their own urges lest the powers-that-be decide enough is enough and their continued governance is too expensive for the continued existence of the country. That fail-safe line may not be far away and the present government may well become part of the ultimate in damage control.

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