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The China Factor

In its enthusiasm to justify reasons for exploding the nuclear bomb, India has been openly accusing China of undermining its security by “passing on nuclear secrets and material” to Pakistan. The pattern of China-baiting was earlier established by the Indian Defence Minister George Fernandes who declared China as India’s “enemy number one” soon after he assumed office, he repeated this ad nauseam during the first-ever visit of a senior Chinese defence official, the Chief of General Staff, thereby (not so diplomatically) embarrassing not only a guest but his Indian military hosts. China immediately rebuked Fernandes in no uncertain terms and then took the Indians to task for using China as a whipping-boy to try and divert attention from its nuclear explosion. The Indians went on further, they trotted out the Dalai Lama, supposedly an apostle of peace, to justify Indian’s exploding of the nuclear device. This got an immediate reaction from China, they called the Dalai Lama a “hypocrite” for supporting an Indian bomb even while preaching peace and non-violence. Rhetoric aside, one is astounded by the BJP’s stupidity in annoying a sensitive and self-respecting nation like China thus. For a people that prides itself in “face”, the Chinese have received quite a lot of unnecessary “egg” from the Indians. It has been a long haul since 1962 when immersed in the arrogance of power after “conquering” Portuguese Goa, Indian PM Jawaharlal Nehru, urged on by his Defence Minister, Krishna Menon, tasked his favourite armchair strategist and tactician rolled into one Lt Gen TN Kaul, to “expel” the Chinese. “Jawans swing into action” screamed Indian newspapers as the Indian Army went on the offensive in North East Frontier Agency (NEFA) and Ladakh. Emboldened by the withdrawals made by the Chinese patrols in the face of Indian forays, the Indian Army further penetrated Chinese territory, only to be routed within days by the Chinese who virtually threw them out of all of the territories in question. In a typical practice of duplicity and falsehood, the Indians claim that it was the Chinese who “attacked” them. Anxious to separate India from its links with the Soviet Bloc, US airlifted (and later shipped) thousands and thousands of tons of arms and equipment. To no avail, India sided with the Soviet Union on issues 99% of the time, at least till the Soviet empire crumbled. China had recently to rebut another Indian Minister who aired the outright lie that Chinese were the aggressors. In 1962, the Chinese had declared a unilateral ceasefire and then proceeded to give back all the territories they had occupied as well as the vast defence material that had fallen in their hands, both in good condition.

During the 1965 and 1971 wars China supported Pakistan without question or restraint, though Chinese leaders like then PM Chou En Lai did quietly advise the then rulers to settle the matter politically in East Pakistan in 1971. For Pakistan China has remained a steadfast ally through the years till the early 90s. For three reasons thereafter it seemed that the Chinese were not as warm as once they were. The first was the ill-considered interference by religious parties across the Khunjerab Pass in Sinkiang Province. Being sensitive to its sovereignty China did not take kindly to activism by Pakistani religious zealots, though the Chinese government recognised that this was far from being the official policy of the Government of Pakistan (GoP). The second reason centred around the greed of Asif Zardari and the purchase of deep-water submarines. China had offered its submarines at almost half the price and felt humiliated by the apparent total disregard to its offer by the PPP Government in not taking it in serious consideration even. The third reason has to do with China’s emergence as an economic power and its perceived responsibilities as a mature world player. With its relations firming up in the region and beyond, Pakistan’s pre-eminent position as “first friend” was eclipsed, more so because of the mutual necessity of rapprochement in the region between China and India. In an article entitled CHINA IN A BULL RUN after a recent visit to China, I had made an elaborate observation of this rather adverse (for Pakistan) development.

However, destiny plays strange hands. With one stroke the Indians have managed to square up our fading relationship with China. There is no doubt that China has been stung badly and will not easily turn the other cheek. Being lumped together with Pakistan, without any real reason and despite its protestations, has been a shocking diplomatic experience for China with respect to India’s penchant for blatant distortions, the lies about 1962 war being only a case in point. With India now being openly belligerent and claiming China is still occupying 16,000 sq miles of Indian territory, it has given China food for thought about its own security, particularly in Tibet. The most damning reason for Chinese irritation is India’s outright support for Dalai Lama in seeking Tibetan independence. Can China afford such an outright threat to its sovereignty? Today India is threatening Pakistan with war over Kashmir, tomorrow it might seek to threaten China over Aksai Chin and Tibet. For better or for worse, Pakistan and China are cast in the same security mould vis-a-vis India. In both cases, India is being belligerent, in case of Pakistan vehemently and in case of China more studiedly.

We must remember that when China gave us unstinted support in 1965 and 1971, it was a Third World country like Pakistan, it made quite a sacrifice to shore us up economically and militarily. To provide us with aircraft, it disbanded squadrons of its own airforce, to provide us with armour, they marched two divisions down to the port and put all the weapons, equipment and transport on board. In recent years it is no secret that it has given us short-term loans to tide us over IMF debt repayment problems. In the present circumstances China becomes the bulwark for our continued existence as a country, the volume and depth of their support will indicate whether we can face upto world sanctions or not. Today China is far better placed to help us than it was in 1965 or 1971. Moreover as an emerging world power that was crucial to the collapse of the Soviet Empire in Europe as orchestrated by US it has a strategic balancing position that it can use with the US to tilt towards Pakistan.

Our leaders must be reconciled to the fact that while we cannot expect China to enter into any military fray on our behalf, a little bit of psychological warfare by sophisticated sabre-rattling will keep a few Indian mountain divisions or so in NEFA and Ladakh occupied and away from Pakistan’s borders. As everyone knows, in war every little counts as the enemy has to take into account whether a favourable attack ratio exists or not. Economically, if China takes up the slack in respect of our cotton-based exports in case western sanctions are imposed, it will be enough to tide us over. Militarily, the material aid given to us will be invaluable given our present shortages and deficiencies. Above all, the knowledge that we have at least one firm ally ready to back up its words with deeds makes the China Factor of vital importance to Pakistan. In this country we have always remained grateful for China’s support, today more than ever it is imperative that we keep the China Factor favourably tilted towards Pakistan.

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