Fail-safe limits of dynamic restraint
For two weeks now, Pakistan has been patiently evaluating the response of the world to the series of nuclear blasts by the Indians, it is now a confirmed fact that it has been mostly an exercise in futility. Except for economic sanctions by USA, Japan and a handful of other concerned nations, lip-service condemnations with negligible physical economic effect has been the order of the day. Countries like UK and France, whom one would expect would have been more activist, have been almost apologetic in their admonitions. Russia, as should be expected, has been almost laudatory, even offering to sell to India a nuclear arsenal. In the United States long time Indian friends like Daniel Patrick Moynihan and Stephen Solarz have come out openly advocating India’s stance. Only China has been steadfast, the OIC has issued a very belated and weak, toned down statement of solidarity. As expected our hereditary friends Saudi Arabia and UAE have responded with moral support as have some other countries in the region. Meantime, everyone and sundry among the western powers and Japan have been sending carrot and stick messages, damned if you explode, maybe a basketful of goodies if you don’t. World pressure on Pakistan to exercise restraint is enormous, on the domestic scene enormous pressure to detonate is mounting.
In the meantime, the raison d’etre for the present crisis, India, continues to wallow in self-satisfaction and outright conceit. Satisfaction first that not only that world reaction has been contained but that some countries have actually accorded grudging respect, satisfaction that there seems to be a tacit acceptance of India’s new position as a credible nuclear power. And India has used this world ambivalence to good effect. They are the only country in the world to directly threaten another with nuclear consequences in case of war and then have gone on to escalating the crisis even further, directly threatening Pakistan with war over Kashmir. Given the BJP penchant of carrying out their manifesto agenda/threats this is not something to be dismissed as mere rhetoric. India is presently riding high on its new pedestal as an emerging nuclear power, with scant regard for world opinion and even less for world economic sanctions. In this she seems to be emulating the stance of Israel, another nation based on religious ideology, with whom it has had defence arrangements dating back two/three decades. As the only country in the world practicing a nationalistic policy based on fundamentalist religion, India brings back the dangers Nazi Germany posed to the world manifold, the mix between fundamentalism and nationalism being very volatile. Like Nazi Germany, India is relishing world appeasement, this approximates the universal responses to each Nazi occupation/annexation pre-World War II leading to the infamous “peace” of our time when Chamberlain signed away Czech freedom in 1938 at Munich in a bid to appease Hitler. Will the world similarly allow the extinction of Pakistan to appease India? Appeasement always fails as it serves only to whet the appetite of the likes of Hitler and India’s responses vis-a-vis Pakistan are now not a matter of concern anymore, they are a grave threat.
In the meantime, there has been an unsuccessful attempt by western powers to move a resolution in the UN Security Council (UNSC) for automatic sanctions against countries exploding the bomb, only derailed when China seeing the danger of its being Pakistan-specific threatened to veto it. Instead of isolating India, the world powers seemed to be poised to punish Pakistan in anticipation of Pakistan crossing the fail-safe limits of the nuclear threshold India had already crossed. While it is true that the USA has literally called Indian leaders as “liars”, towards Pakistan this is no less than an ambiguous stance, one that is a symbol of what the future holds for Pakistan. While Saudi Arabia and UAE have sent envoys to express their solidarity with Pakistan, take a trip to Dubai where our Arab friends seemed to eat with relish the sweets the Indians distributed. One was shocked to hear an influential person who is a genuine friend of Pakistan, speak of India as a genuine “emerging nuclear power because they have dared to explode the bomb and yours is still a bluff”, at least in Arab eyes.
At home the voices of insanity are increasingly being joined by the voices of reason. If it had only been the bomb explosion, conceivably logic did exist to exercise dynamic restraint, while we examined the gamut of all available options and reaction thereof. However, desperate to have us exposed to the same sanctions it faces, India is openly provoking Pakistan for manifold purposes, not only to make us react but also to dampen Pakistan civilian and military morale. Unfortunately their bloody-minded ploy for “casus belli” seems to be working, at least partly. The Pakistani population now wants definite proof of nuclear capability in the face of Indian threats, since public opinion has not been mobilised at the grassroots level, opposition leaders like Ms Benazir have taken the opportunity to press their domestic agenda at the cost of the national interest. With the right wing and religious parties all holding forth to blow the bomb, an unholy alliance of those with genuine reason is forming with those with a vested interest in chaos and confusion leading to the fall of the Mian Nawaz Sharif regime. Doubt is being sowed in the mass mind not only to defame Mian Nawaz Sharif politically but to effect a loss of confidence in Pakistan’s defence credibility.
What Pakistan needs are tangible moves to shore up Pakistan’s security and effective initiatives by western powers to impair India’s economy. While sanctions are effective, what is needed is a trade embargo, preferably a united front but if not at least USA, Japan and Germany, so as to drastically contain textile and software exports to these countries. Advising restraint in exploding the bomb while keeping active a viable nuclear option is not fashionable in intellectual circles, I have even been accused of “toeing the American line”. While I am not going to apologise about liking Americans like some double-faced hypocrites I have the misfortune of having the acquaintance of, why do people expect the US to go against its national interest when we in Pakistan have a duty to go with our national interest? We want to be recognised in the world as an equal nuclear power (to India), is it not a fact that by asking Pakistan not to explode the bomb such tacit recognition has already been given? However the issue is not the bomb anymore, a direct threat to Pakistan’s security has been made by so-called responsible Indian leaders, a major escalation that Pakistan cannot avoid, not without the risk of “Balkanisation” on the pattern of the other South Asian countries. The options are whether to explode the bomb and “eat grass” or not test the nuclear device and “eat humble pie”.
There is always a price for restraint as well as tangible reasons thereof. We are on the threshold of crossing the fail-safe limits but because of the warnings served on us, sanctions will be muted within the parameters of being bearable. Everyone recognises a self-defence option. China will never abandon us, particularly when its own security interests have also now come under indirect threat. Similarly Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, etc have long-lasting affinity with Pakistan, even Malaysia will help, at least as long as Mahathir is in control. If our domestic situations holds and all political portents are that it will, exploding the bomb will only shore up Mian Nawaz Sharif politically whatever the long-term economic consequences. We will be in for a rough time but the adjustments economically will more than even the balance, there is benefit to ultimate self-reliance. As much as I personally feel that other alternatives must be explored, Mian Nawaz Sharif’s options have been reduced to do or die, that is, die a lingering death vilified by his countrymen. Even for a populist leader economic consequences are important, the same people exhorting him to explode the bomb will be the first to turn against him in misery-time. Such war-gaming he must have done, left now with no other option, he may opt for “Gotterdamerung”, for Pakistan to die with sword in hand rather than face the thousand cuts of a coward.
Is the world really serious in restraining Pakistan from the show of its nuclear option? If so, why does not the world take tangible steps that will unambiguously show their resolve to stay with Pakistan in this hour of crisis? Why does not the US President call for an emergency one-day meeting in Islamabad of those western powers who mean what they say in their pledges to Pakistan? An “Islamabad Declaration” pledging to sustain India in not only rhetoric but material economic sanctions including a complete trade embargo, particularly in textiles and software, would go a long way in a symbolic concrete gesture of solidarity. Anything less would make any pledge a matter of conjecture and nonsense in the face of Indian obduracy and known adventurism. A seriousness of purpose to contain these new Nazis must be visibly apparent, otherwise we will have no choice but to defend ourselves. And in that the first step is to explode the bomb and damn the consequences! In such circumstances, let’s get used to the taste of grass, it is always better than that of humble pie.
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