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Achilles four

Recent articles in the domestic and international print media analysing the PML’s first year in office sing a common refrain, of governance, economy, credibility and Sindh. Friends, neutral observers and foes alike, harp on the same weaknesses viz (1) failure of governance (2) a sluggish economy (3) loss of credibility and (4) lack of government in Sindh. Supporters and sympathisers of the ruling regime suggest remedial measures, neutral observers analyse dispassionately the reasons for falling short in performance while foes, as foes are apt to do, trumpet what they hold to be truths with a mixture of half-truths and outright lies, asking for the termination of the Sharif government’s mandate as soon as possible. The alternative possibilities, given the various permutations and combinations, are either (1) without a proven track record and still not credible and/or (2) are too horrible to contemplate. While the style and mode of governance can be changed, it would be wrong to lay the blame for the lousy state of the economy on the present government. This was an inherited disaster area and credit must be given to the regime’s economic team for slowing the headlong slide downwards to manageable levels. However the factor of impaired credibility is alarming since  this factor is crucial to any leader and is very much within his/her control to correct. Also within the PM’s control is the relationship with PML’s regional allies, ANP in NWFP and MQM(A), etc, particularly concerning governance in Sindh.

Incumbents in office have many times more vocal flatterers than real friends. Real friends can be divided into (1) those who want Mian Sahib to succeed but dare not risk his annoyance by bringing to focus the weaknesses in his governance and (2) those who want Mian Sahib to succeed but are alarmed enough at the possibilities of his exit from office to risk Mian Sahib’s annoyance (and anger) by bringing to his notice the regime’s shortcomings. Obviously the second category of people are vastly outnumbered by the first and in fact are an endangered species with respect to the PM’s genuine good nature, the first category making it a point to bring their alleged “disloyalty” to the attention of the PM. Mian Nawaz Sharif is more resilient against the whispered facts than before but still vulnerable in his second stint as PM, during the years in the cold he picked up an inner coterie high on loyalty but of mixed assessment as regards capability and performance. The biggest failure in his governance mode has been the undue influence of this inner coterie in the decision-making process. For all intents and purposes Mian Sahib has been cocooned by this group and made to look like an absolute dictator without the benefit of unrestricted advice that is critical for any democratic leader in evolving any decisions. Decisions once made are subject to change depending upon the whims and caprices of his inner circle. This makes for a very unreal situation, the PM’s saving grace is the general public perception that he is a sincere person and a patriot. For the institutionalised process of decision-making, however, such saving graces cut no ice and at the level of national governance, an uneducated, ill-experienced circle of “friends” motivated out of self-interest and out to prove themselves at the expense of their leader can do more harm and damage, particularly if they cannot reconcile themselves to the glory reflected from the leader but want to be Super-PMs emanating their own sun rays. The Federal Cabinet can help Mian Sahib by gently restraining him from riding roughshod in his decision-making, exposing those in his inner circle lacking substance. Advisors are certainly necessary for leaders, what one calls a kitchen cabinet, but it is the final responsibility of the leader to choose his counsellors with care, not relying on the touchstone of loyalty alone as the major predominant factor.

Ask a common man in the street and he will tell you what is wrong with the economy, a fair representation would probably also tell you remedial measures. It is useless to parrot what is already general knowledge, what we want to know is what is the PM going to do about implementing the very apparent remedial measures? Without corrections, the economy will not show any improvement. There are success stories, of course, among them Habib Bank, United Bank and National Bank, etc where the haemorrhaging has been contained and most of the indicators are good for the revival of these financial institutions (FIs). However even here scoundrels who could not get a job in any other bank have slipped into the management teams. The financial viability of these banks, development FIs, etc form the bedrock for the future emancipation and development of the economy. We have now an infrastructure which is more or less free from the evils of yesteryear and ready to fuel the economy. However, the revenue shortages are alarming and corrective measures have been inordinately delayed. Otherwise the government will have to resort to commercial bank borrowing to reduce the deficit. While we are lucky that the abyss does not loom imminently anymore it is still there and the economy is responding extremely slowly. The problem arises with some ambitious financial witch-doctors in close proximity to the PM who are recommending quick-fixes. “Short-cuts” advised by those who are fair weather friends to Zardari and Mian Nawaz Sharif alike, will be fatal for the economy, what is necessary is a pragmatic realpolitik approach that shuns high profile individual solutions. Investment is waiting in the wings but won’t come to Pakistan unless the PM can convince potential entrepreneurs that their money will be safe in worthwhile business transactions.

Mian Nawaz Sharif got his historic mandate in February 1997 because the people believed in him. He threw many an enormous opportunity by not asking the people immediately to share the pain because at that time people were ready to accept whatever he had to do to revive the country. The nation put their entire hopes at his beck and call, it was his to will as he chose! A year down the road asking for sacrifices will be much more difficult because his credibility has been impaired, but the economy seriously warrants drastic measures. He still has an enormous reservoir of goodwill among the people of Pakistan and he must take courageous measures by involving them in the transparent process of reform. If the people believe that his actions will have some effect in the future they will willingly bear the pain and hardships but this must go along with personal sacrifices and a visible cutting down of government expenditures. Furthermore, Mian Sahib is widely respected in the Middle East not only by our Pakistani expatriates but also by the Arabs. Middle Eastern governments may not have the money they once had but individuals have enough money to invest. What is happening in Pakistan has not restored the credibility of the government, that failure has affected Mian Sahib’s credibility. That needs to be restored to its normal pedestal if the inward cash flow stream is to be revitalised. The damage done to the PM’s credibility by the antics of some of his principal aides can be corrected. He knows very well who is the major defaulter in the Middle East that has brought the UBL to its knees! Mian Sahib is lucky to have loyal colleagues to whom he can turn, not those who simply flatter him for attention and divert him from his real objective, the economic amelioration of the poor masses of his impoverished country.

Maxim said it all in a cartoon in which he had Ms Benazir tongue-in-cheek congratulating Mian Nawaz Sharif for his “allies”. While ANP does not resort to daily blackmail but means what it says, it is a wonder how the PML has kept its government in Sindh going. ANP have their own agenda and it was wrong politically to give them so much leeway in the Peshawar valley, MQM (A) has a chequered history of changing allies, unfortunately remaining mostly in the Opposition. The other allies in Sindh, PML (F), Independents, etc have a history of being with every government in power. All in all the PML is wrong if it thinks it has a government in Sindh. Liaquat Jatoi has been an unmitigated disaster and MQM (A) seems to be taking advantage of his known weaknesses, especially corruption as boldly practiced by Brothers Nazirov (with apologies to Dostovesky’s “Brothers Karamazov”). This is not a PML government and the sooner Governor’s Rule comes to Sindh the better. Lt Gen (Retd) Moinuddin Haider is a fine, amiable person who has done a creditable balancing act ethnically, he doesn’t need this cabinet to run Sindh effectively. He will do the job much better than the farce being perpetrated presently.

There is a time for everything, if it passes Mian Sahib by without his taking due assessment and action thereof, it will be tragic for his political future. While no man is really indispensable, if Mian Sahib fails it will also be a tragic setback for Pakistan. Those who want to save the country must first save Mian Nawaz Sharif from some of his friends, even at the risk of losing his friendship!

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