The external state of the Federation
Pakistan stands at a particular crossroads of both history and geography. Primarily we belong to the South Asia, being geographically within the boundaries of the Hindu Kush and the Himalayan mountain ranges in the West North-West of the Sub-continent. History’s transient political status has also made us part of both Near Asia and the Middle East, with the fall of the Soviet Empire we went back to our historical connections with Central Asia. We are at the very nexus of four important regions in Asia and as such economically and geo-politically we should occupy a far greater niche on the world stage than is accorded to us. Part of the reason is that we have failed to build up our strengths, on the contrary the greed, incompetence and ambition of our leaders has made us the slave of our weaknesses.
Within South Asia, our historical links with our giant neighbour India has been vitiated by India’s military occupation of Kashmir, negating the concept of Hindu majority and Muslim majority areas which was the touchstone of Partition of the Sub-continent in 1947. The brute force India has used to keep Kashmiris under subjugation has added to the tension. To be fair Kashmir also evokes emotional reaction in India but the religious affinity of the vast majority with Pakistan keeps the independence struggle alive even after half a century. Within the framework of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), it was to be expected that India would offer meaningful concessions on Kashmir that would allow natural commerce between the two countries to flourish, but that has not happened. The Kashmir question remains a live flashpoint, sooner or later economic ground realities will influence India to change its policy. With Bangladesh, Pakistan has historical and economic affinity, both having been part of one nation and with complementary economies. The relationship with Bangladesh, and to a certain extent that with Sri Lanka, keeps us within SAARC. However the new sub-regional grouping proposed by India and Bangladesh, after the induction of the very pro-India Hasina Wajed’s Awami League (AL) government, excludes Pakistan and spells the end of SAARC as a viable entity of equal nations. The best thing for this sub-continent would be to return to the natural trade of the centuries, also for Pakistan to be the access for South Asia’s trade with the Near East and Central Asia. However if India’s intransigence does not change, Pakistan should revert to Most Favoured Nation (MFN) bilateral agreements with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and turn its economic and political fulcrum to the west and north-west. We must resolve our crisis of identity on a pragmatic basis, with India bent on dominating the region, we have to turn to other regions as India’s hegemony can never be acceptable to us.
Pakistan has been a significant part of the Near East as a part of the Regional Cooperation for Development (RCD). The other countries, Iran and Turkey have always been our traditional allies despite changes of governments over the years. While with Turkey we enjoy an unparalleled relationship of mutual love and support, our great neighbour Iran has also remained a close friend. With the inclusion of the Central Asian Republics (CARs) in the RCD, the merging of Near East and Central Asia, kept apart because of seven decades of Soviet occupation of the CARs, with whom Pakistan has historical and economic links of long standing is now complete. We are very much an important part of a grouping that is developing fast into a region of great opportunity. Pakistan has the best access to the Indian Ocean to and from Central Asia, with peace now returning to Afghanistan, this is something that needs to be economically exploited. We have to recognize the Taliban-formed government in Kabul is too much an existing reality to ignore. At the same time the world must recognize that we are a greatly moderating influence on both Kabul and Tehran, that Pakistan is the stabilizing force for the region, particularly in the south, as much as Turkey has a similar role to play in the Turkic-speaking CARs. The buzzword for Pakistan is an economic association where informal trade is already a reality, what we have to do is to formalize this and force-multiply the benefits.
With the Middle East, particular with Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait, Pakistan has a relationship of long-standing based on religious affinity and providing of a large number of skilled and unskilled workers. The expatriate remittances to Pakistan averaging US$ 2 billion plus yearly is an important contribution to the economy both viably and visibly, Pakistan’s workers in these countries in return give political stability to the countries which are vulnerable to various pressures both internal and external. Saudi Arabia and UAE have always been of economic assistance to us in our hour of need, a pragmatic and frank presentation of our economic aspirations should get us a greater advantage.
With the advent of the European Union, our historical association within UK has diminished. Europe has always been commercial minded and as such have established stronger links with fast developing East Asia than with South Asia, as such they have set different human rights standards for them and for us, it is to be expected that their two-track policy will continue. The EU countries are also worried about trade to the CARs flowing through to the Indian Ocean rather than through Europe. As it is Europe has a long standing animosity with Islam and equates countries like Pakistan to Iran and Afghanistan. With Islamists leading a coalition government in Turkey, Europe is again sensitive to the issue. While we have to have constructive engagement with them, we have to recognize that unless we strike oil in a big way, EU countries will not treat us the way they treat Saudi Arabia, UAE, Malaysia, Indonesia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, etc. France’s relationship with us is confined to economic ones, mainly selling arms to us, while with UK our bilateral relationship remains only because of the large number of Pakistanis in UK and the heavy British investment in Pakistan.
It is indeed a sad commentary on our successive governments that we have failed to maintain a good balance with the two main countries in our life as a nation, China and the US. We served as the bridge that broke the ice between the US and China, late Chou en Lai even admonished US National Security Adviser Henry Kissinger during his July 1991 visit with words to the effect that “Pakistan has been the bridge you have used to come to us. Do not forget this bridge for you may have to use it again”, unquote. China is essential to our survival as a viable and independent national entity as it is in close proximity of our geo-political location in the comity of nations. On the other hand, US vital interests coincide with ours in maintaining a stable balance in the region for countries less able to defend themselves but we have failed to cash in this geo-political advantage in the same manner we failed to cash in our Afghanistan chips when (and as) we should have. We let our country be used as a front line State to counter Soviet aggression in Afghanistan but the economic and political returns have been dismal. For a few F-16s we sold away our soul as regards our national interest and policies thereof. Subsequently the worst thing that Benazir did was to downgrade our relationship with China from the level it should be, the result is that sensitive China has adopted a more pragmatic real-politik stance vis-a-vis India and the US does not consider us the vital bridge in the region (cornerstone of US policy) that we once were. No wonder China greeted Mian Nawaz Sharif’s sweeping victory with unusual warmth, a clear indicator of their preference of leaders in Pakistan. With China getting the most important role on the Pakistani pedestal and its known history of principled support for friends, the relationship with the US has to be based on mutual recognition of realities. Pakistan’s stabilizing influence in the region is of vital interest to the US and it is in their interest to maintain our military parity with India to deter Indian adventurism.
Mian Nawaz Sharif has to put together an effective foreign policy team, remembering that in this technological age we may be left far behind if we cannot put our foreign trade in order. “Has been” people without vision should be replaced by dynamic futuristic thinking persons. Emphasis has to be placed on pragmatic foreign trade initiatives, to search for non-traditional markets in Central Asia, Africa, South America and Latin America. With an entrepreneurial background, the future PM has the necessary potential to break the present economic logjam and force-multiply our initiatives into material benefit. PPP’s foreign policy was confined to interest in Asif Zardari’s personal acquisitions and with Benazir only interested in Asif Zardari, the sum total was minus of zero. That is now in the past and we cannot do much about it except trying to get our money back. For the future, we have hope, that hope can be translated into reality by a group of sincere workers dedicated to the common cause of prosperity for Pakistan.
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