Hashing the Brown Amendment
A report appeared in “the Washington Post” on Feb 15, 1996 that “a planned shipment of US military aircraft, missiles and other high-tech armaments under the Brown Amendment would be delayed because of Pakistan’s suspected acquisition of sensitive nuclear equipment from China late last year”, unquote. On Friday 23, 1996, CIA Director John Deutsch confirmed an intelligence finding that transfer of nuclear equipment had been made. The “Brown Amendment”, a one-time exemption to US Laws that bar military cooperation with Pakistan because of our alleged nuclear development programme, would have allowed US$ 368 million worth of arms, already paid for, to be transferred to Pakistan. Even though the F-16s were not on the list, the opening up of the logjam was seen in Pakistan by the intelligentsia and public alike as a giant step towards “normalising” the US-Pakistan relationship that had gone out of equilibrium to Pakistan’s detriment since 1990 when the US President had failed to certify that Pakistan had nuclear ambitions. In the 80s during the height of the Afghan War that contributed to the demise of the Soviet Union, Pakistan had been a major beneficiary of US Aid. Coinciding with the winding down of the Afghan War, the ban was not well received by the Pakistan public. This was further exacerbated by US “rewards” in 1991 at the end of the Gulf War for the allied countries that took part on the US side (e.g. Egypt’s entire debt of US$12 billion was waived) while Pakistan which contributed considerable troops, was almost put on the “terrorist nation” watch list.
The alleged shipment of 500 ring magnets from China to Pakistan initially seemed to reflect the growing anti-China mood in the US Congress and public in an election year. Given the conservative penchant of using all means to rescind the “Most Favoured Nation” (MFN) trade status given to China, many analysts believed that Pakistan was unlucky to get caught in the crossfire. In the well-orchestrated campaign at least 36 reports have appeared in the US print media in a ten day period from Feb 6 to Feb 16. Given that the US Administration had not yet given any official briefing on the subject till Feb 23, 1996, this was certainly the work of a coalition of disparate forces, among them some administration officials and non-proliferation NGOs that tried late last year to prevent the Brown Amendment from going through. Downgrading Pakistan’s aspirations from the high of F-16s to the low of whatever equipment was remaining was in the pipeline, the same lobby now wants to use the Brown Amendment as bait, either by halting the equipment package altogether or at the very least by delaying its implementation to force a unilateral nuclear quid pro quo from Pakistan, specifically to “cap” its suspected nuclear programme.
The entire legislative process that led to the adoption of the Brown Amendment took several months, during this period there was no mention of an intelligence finding of transfer of 500 ring magnets. Is this a selective leak to embarrass President Clinton and thus force his hand to stop the sale? Is Pakistan to be adjudged guilty until proven innocent? India may not be the driving force behind these allegations but it will derive advantage as it fits in neatly with Indian-sponsored propaganda that asks for a non-nuclear Pakistan in the same breath as it gives scant attention to control the blatant Indian nuclear ambitions.
This strong anti-Pakistan lobby in the US is being countered by a united Pakistan community in the US who are supported by the traditional friends of Pakistan in the US Congress and the Administration who take into account the strong Pakistani support to the US in times of crisis during the period of the cold war, culminating in Afghanistan. The anti-lobby has written three letter to the US President on successive days since Feb 7, 1996, viz. (1) on Feb 7, 1996 by our old friend US Senator Larry Pressler of Indiana that speaks at length about Chinese violations of US non-proliferation laws “according to unnamed US intelligence officials” quoted by “The Washington Post” and then asks the US President to freeze all civilian and military assistance to Pakistan, (2) US Senator Arlen Specter of the “Senate Committee on Intelligence” of the US Senate writing to the US President on Feb 8, 1996, again on the basis of Press reports, to implement tough sanctions against China and Pakistan and (3) on Feb 9, 1996, US Representative Benjamin A Gilman, Chairman of the House Committee on International Relations, writing to the US President to examine Pakistan’s role in the alleged transfers, requesting hold on all equipment in the pipeline till hearings (presumably fresh) are complete. While we orientals are great ones for “conspiracy theories”, the almost similar message on successive days seems to be too well coordinated, their contents too well synchronized given the simultaneous coverage in the print media, to be far removed from being a conspiracy. It seems a well-conscienced filibuster to deny us the equipment is on.
The raison d’etre given by the four generals (the remaining three are due to retire successively on 01 Apr, 15 Apr and 17 Apr 1996) who manipulated the political scene after Gen Asif Nawaz’s death and pushed the new COAS Gen Waheed, who trusted them blindly, into a no-win position leading to the 1993 election that heralded the return of Ms Benazir, was that Ms Benazir’s return would see the immediate release of F-16s and a resumption of direly needed economic and military aid. The F-16s parked in the US Mojave Desert were vital to our national security. When the F-16s swap against a non-proliferation promise was found unacceptable to Pakistan, our ambitions were successively lowered by Feb 1994 from a height of aspiring for F-16s to only accepting the US$ 368 million hardware already paid for. To cater for our lowered expectations, the mechanism of the Brown Amendment was put in place. What to talk about the F-16s, our expectations now have to come to terms that the remaining items in the pipeline will never be delivered. In an election year, the US President may find it easier to renege on promises made to us rather than domestically take on the non-proliferation lobby and powerful elements within the US Administration.
To counter this orchestrated campaign against Pakistan, the Government of Pakistan (GoP) must urgently press upon our friends in the US Congress and Administration that (1) these intelligence reports are false, (2) they emanate from sources inimical to Pakistan (3) anti-China feeling is being used to force-multiply the discrimination against us, (4) this will sow suspicion between the two countries, introducing acrimony if President Clinton’s solemn commitment to Pakistan is negated, (5) this will demonstrate Washington’s nuclear double-standards in South Asia, signalling to the Pakistan people that the US is an untrustworthy friend and (6) give encouragement to India which has just deployed the Prithvi missile and (according to CIA Director Deutsch) is preparing for a nuclear test while blocking negotiations in Geneva for a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). At the same time, GoP must give all support to the Pakistan Ambassador Ms. Maleeha Lodhi, she has done remarkable work for the country and the Ms. Benazir Administration by uniting the Pakistan Community and mobilising our friends in the US Congress and Administration. Her yeo-woman’s work may well go up in smoke if our Foreign Office Mandarins persist in keeping their own narrow interests in supersession to that of the country.
For those in Pakistan who cherish a continuing relationship with the US the present episode is getting to be critical for future inter-action between the two nations. Knowing that we cannot get the F-16s and/or other equipment, that economic aid is at best tenuous to us, our own conservative faction has started to question why we should continue the level of relationship that allows the US to have major say in our external and internal policies? We live in a especially dangerous region, one inhabited by implacable US foes such as Iran and Iraq, who do not appreciate Pakistan’s continuation of our US-ally role. In Russia nationalist forces are on the move to revert back to cold war’s confrontation days. If we were to start toeing the Iran-line in the Middle East, what effect will it have in the Middle East and Central Asia? The US can rant and rave as much as they want to about China, are they really willing to forsake their US$ 10 billion trade and to risk another period of cold war and/or regional conflict? While we are certainly not in the same happy position as China in thumbing our noses at the US at will, we have to re-examine the increasingly one-sided relationship with the US. It may be uncomfortable economically and diplomatically to be on a US-ostracization list but it may be far better to follow an independent policy rather than toeing the US line on almost every issue. Certainly there is a global risk in adopting this line but in the absence of any movement from the US, we may well fall into the camp of those (some among them on the lunatic fringe) who feel we should have no truck with the US and must go ahead openly with our nuclear programme, field-testing a nuclear device if India does so. A regional bloc of unlikely allies such as Iran, Iraq and Pakistan would prove to be a major problem for this area, particularly in the Gulf Region and Central Asia. In addition to the conservative isolationists in the US we have our own share of extremists who may well lead us into a confrontation stance despite the feelings of our “great silent majority”. It behoves both the countries to honour their mutual obligations to each other, not to be boxed into a corner by the machinations of vested interest.
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