1996 – The year ahead – Challenges before the Nation
The past year has been exceedingly tough for Pakistan. Some notable indicators did surface about the end of 1995 that point to a better 1996 if the trend continues. Perhaps the best news for the country is that the President has become the Head of State of all Pakistanis, not the rubberstamp of a single political party. The knowledge that their actions may be subject to check and verification will certainly make the elected government perform better. There remain certain questions of vital national importance in supersession to many others in which the President must intercede on behalf of the nation, among them (1) the basic anomaly of corruption that is wrecking the economy (2) the Sindh Urban problem and (3) the regional geo-political situation.
To the common man, whether the economy is good or bad is measured by the continued rise in prices i.e. rate of inflation, whereas for economic managers inflation is the end result of policies and initiatives taken by the government as adjusted to the world economic environment. At the moment, prices across the board for all products and produce have risen with such ferocity that many in the middle class cannot afford more than 1 meal a day, that too on a scale considerable below their average ration of meat, vegetables and fruit. One should not go by the availability of imported goods in the market and the small privileged elite who retain the buying power to clean out such shelves. There is an ever-widening gap between the rich and the poor, the middle class has been virtually wiped out in-between. Murphy’s Law has ensured that except for Dr Mohammad Yacoob, Governor State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the PM has the worst economic team that this country has ever seen. Mr. V.A. Jafarey is an honourable, venerable old gentleman but given the individuals and policies he has to contend with in a bad economic environment, even the most brilliant economic manager would have run away rather than face the financial decay of the nation.
The economy requires drastic short-term and long-term measures. The short-term measures include self-explanatory measures like (1) curbing expenditure drastically (2) increasing revenue generation (3) prioritising expenditures including development (4) eradicating inefficiency and corruption (5) forcing Provinces to increase their revenue generation by reducing Federal allocations and (6) a positive management of available cash flow. The only one aspect that needs extra elucidation is corruption, a feature that needs immediate Presidential focus as it is the prime reason for the bad economic woes of our country.
We must tackle corruption head-on, particularly money being shifted to foreign banks outside the country. After sifting through rumours and compensating for exaggeration, a sum of 25-30 crores seems to be still being sent out of the country daily on a well organised basis i.e. about US$ 7-8 million daily or about US$ 200 million monthly. Conservative estimates point to almost US$ 5 billion taken out of the economy in the past 2 years, at least US$ 1.5 – 2.00 billion in one single hand alone. No economy in the world except the world’s mega-economic powers can stand such a haemorrhaging of liquidity on this scale for long. What is degrading (and also astonishing) is that our educated elite are witness to this highway robbery taking place but shamelessly fall over themselves to ingratiate themselves socially with such persons. If we believe such people to be corrupt, our honour must dictate socially boycotting those who are involved in looting the country’s treasury and destroying its future and that of our children. Worst of all the flight of money has jeopardised our national security. To those who choose to remain deaf, dumb and blind to this brazen thievery, one can only feel contempt at their naivety, their silence makes them as culpable as those looting this country. The price of inaction today will be paid in blood by the youth of this country. Look at the shenanigans of “political” appointees in the country’s financial institutions, their only claim to fame is to serve the individual good of the “master” at the cost of the nation. Does one expect anything from such people than the assuaging of their greed? When the only real threat to them choose to be inactive due to “social and constitutional motives”, the greed of the Un-Godly force-multiplies without the fear of retribution. This open season on Pakistan’s national interests can only be checked if the President establishes a Special Task Force for checking and eradication corruption, constituted of persons of integrity and repute. With Presidential authority to go after high and low alike without fear or favour, the flight of ill-gotten wealth will come to a stop.
The second major focus of national crisis are the major urban areas of Sindh, particularly Karachi. Over the past six months Gen Babar and the Rangers (helped by the Police) have done a magnificent job of eradicating terrorists of one particular political leaning but there is a time and place for everything, the dual-track political initiatives are missing. Now we must follow an even-handed approach, to paraphrase (with apologies) Deng Xiaoping “it does not matter whether the cat is white or black, it is dangerous as long as it can eat mice”. We must even the balance to ensure that one set of criminals is not replaced by another. One of the fallouts of positive action by the LEAs is that Karachi Police have come out of their subdued shell and started to wantonly harass the common citizens, this despite credible professionalism in their senior hierarchy. While the Rangers carry the burden of public approbation as the leading edge of the LEAs, the behaviour of the Police is getting to be atrocious, mainly in extorting money. One form of terrorism should not be replaced by another more dangerous form, unauthorised State terrorism for individual gain thereby washing out whatever good has been done in wiping out terrorism. The President must take immediate remedial measures for the urban citizens of Sindh, in particular Karachi. He cannot let the situation slide into anarchy. Gen Babar’s task was restricted to restoring the peace, to sustain the peace requires political initiatives that are either not in Gen Babar’s mandate or can be settled without going outside the parameters of the LEAs. The President must first appoint a Governor equal to the task of peace sustenance, regretfully Governor Kamal Azfar’s credibility or personality is not equal to this challenge. Once the Governor is appointed, the President should put both the major cities of Karachi and Hyderabad under Governor’s rule, appointing full-time Administrators for each city with all the civic agencies and LEAs under his (or her) authority. The government must then announce a general amnesty for all politically related crime, provided those asking for amnesty specify his (or her) criminal action. A period of one month must be given for people to avail this offer. Simultaneously delimitation of constituencies based roughly on last population estimates must take place with 9 districts (one for every million of population) in Karachi and 3 in Hyderabad. Within 3 months of Governor’s rule elections must take place for all Local Bodies slots at the basic unit level, with elections to the next 2 stages at three month intervals. Within 9 months the District Mayors must take office after being directly elected and assume responsibility followed by direct election to the post of Mayor who then replaces the Administrator. It is most important to remove the vacuum of leadership at the grassroots level followed by a gradual return to power to the directly elected representatives of the people. There is no need for elongated dialogues on the issue, unless the people of this city are re-enfranchised soon so that they ultimately form a voice at the Provincial and National level, the Mohajirs will be permanently alienated from the national mainstream. The MQM represents that voice and must have a place under the Pakistani sun. It is the responsibility of the President to take direct charge of the situation before permanent physical division of geographical parameters takes place as has happened in this country’s history before, the fear is that mentally the division has already taken place.
The President must take cognisance of our foreign policy debacles, the only bereft sport being Dr Maleeha Lodhi’s lonely but effective crusade in the US, a brilliant almost solo effort in extenuating circumstances. The regional geo-political situation has deteriorated drastically to Pakistan’s detriment. Before Ms Bhutto Second Coming as PM, both the Afghan and Kashmir policies were in the hands of the ISI and to the credit of Lt Gen (now Retd) Asad Durrani, he had handled both quite adroitly despite adverse circumstances in both areas. However, the first change to (now Retd) Lt Gen Javed Nasir set us back as he resorted to his individual religious leanings rather than be guided by pragmatic policies in the interests of the nation. While his was a confused tenure, his successor was an unmitigated disaster. While some may have reservations about the ISI, the fact remains that by the end of the Afghan war it had developed a tremendous potential fighting one Superpower with the support of another. Money cannot buy such experience, it can only be obtained by the spilling of blood of operatives in the field. All this went in vain as the new incumbent anxious to please his western counterparts, dismantled ISI’s mechanism to carry out silent war on the pattern they were confronting at the hands of Indian RAW. The new ISI chief put emphasis (and money) on such things as the songs of Adnan Sami Khan, etc to motivate the Kashmiris instead of focussing on material help that was desperately needed. Such frustration gave an opening to extremist religious groups and other militant factions, also an opportunity for RAW to infiltrate their cells. Similarly our Afghan policy has been counter-productive. We should have handled President Rabbani with greater tact and diplomacy in the same manner that we have handled Dostum. Circumstances have now been created which obligate the shunning of communists and their adherents who keep the minority Tajik leaders Rabbani and Masood in the seat of power in Kabul, the same measure should have been applied to the mercenary Rashid Dostum. However, in sending most of Pakistan Army’s Afghan veterans home, the new ISI Chief (in 1993) decimated our field contacts and set us on a disastrous course in Afghanistan. The tragedy is that the Indians (courtesy of Masood’s intelligence Chief Indian-trained Gen Fahim) are established in the Kabul seat of power and our policy is in total disarray, existence only by the timely emergence of the Taliban. In the process we have annoyed Iran which has sent out feelers of friendship with India to a level more than can ever be imagined. For different reasons, China is also estranged from us, a continuing catastrophe in diplomatic polity for us. Since this government seems to have no time for Bangladesh and has lost the affinity we had with Sri Lanka, our diplomatic cup in the region is bitter indeed.
Having had a taste of the President’s penchant for fair play as exercised in his choice of Gen Jahangir Karamat as COAS based on pure merit and merit alone, we look to him for more, this is our right. While he cannot take on all the responsibilities of the elected government, the public expects him to establish Presidential writ to stop the rot in our elected government and take steps commensurate under the circumstances in the supreme national interest. Short of setting aside an elected government one can only hope for redemption on the basis of the indications one saw in the President as a welcome silver lining in the dark clouds dimming almost the whole of last year.
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