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A question of identity

Fifty five years ago to the day after the historic Pakistan Resolution was passed at Lahore and nearly a quarter century after the finest experiment in nationhood in history came to an end, the remaining part of Pakistan is still having an identity crisis of sorts, albeit a positive one. The equation now is whether we belong in the South Asian Sub-continent as a part of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) or are we a part of greater Central Asia represented by an expanded Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO)? Both economic and political factors are pulling Pakistan away from its historic affiliation in South Asia to what most Pakistanis now believe to be a more fulfilling destiny to the West by North West.

From March 13 to 16th, ECO met in Islamabad, the participating Heads of State and Government adopting 10 accords in a remarkable display of amity despite visible differences in strategic perceptions. Pakistan, Turkey and Iran had been associated with CENTO, the military alliance successor of Baghdad Pact opposing the southern access of Warsaw Pact countries. CENTO gave birth to a twin economic entity called the Regional Cooperation for Development (RCD). Since any surrogate mechanism of the US was anathema to post-Shah Iran, CENTO did not last long after the Shah’s ouster, the minimum requirement to keep RCD going was a name change to ECO to keep regional cooperation going. The Soviet collapse obviated the raison d’etre for the cold war giving an economic impetus for association to the surrogates of the former antagonistic Superpowers. The newly emerging resource-rich former Soviet-vassal Republics of Central Asia had been stifled economically by Soviet centralisation and lack of entrepreneurial initiatives. Their historic trade routes to the South and South west had been replaced by the rather artificially imposed West and North West routes oriented to the Soviet requirement to exploit the Asian region’s resources for its European republics.

Most of the Central Asian Republics speak Russian and Turkic language, a smaller number speaks Persian. The Turkish Connection can be seen in the rapid establishment of more than 6,000 Turkish businesses, big and small. Some areas contiguous to Iran have some Persian influence in their culture but not as dominant as Turkey’s historic affiliation and Russia’s more recent one. In fact Turkey could well have replaced Russia as the “mother” nation but for its marked propensity after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire to shy away from Asian leadership roles while making a historic turn to Europe. However, land access to and from Turkey is rather limited. While the Pakistani population has an affinity with Central Asian culture, what is of paramount importance is that Pakistan sits at an extremely important crossroads having excellent land access to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean. Iran’s land access has both road and rail connections but had political tones. All lasting relationships between nations need economic linkage to hold the fabric together, in many cases economic considerations are almost the only reason for association, ASEAN being a perfect example with mainly Buddhist Thailand, Christian Philippines, Muslim Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei, and multi-racial multi-religious Singapore. Though some of ECO’s participating nations do not have Islam as a State religion, Islam does give added measure for cooperation. Soviet Communist domination for more than half a century could not diminish the underlying Islamic commonality in the Central Asian Republics (CARs).

At a historical and geographical crossroads, (other than ECO and SAARC, the Middle East is to the South West and China to the North East in close proximity) Pakistan has a unique choice in destinies. A moderate Islamic nation as compared to the western perception of Iran and/or a future Afghanistan, despite being exasperated by Pakistan’s nuclear capability, the west has a vested economic and strategic interest in a strong, stable Pakistan. It is not surprising that their choice would be a western-educated western-oriented leader like Ms Benazir Bhutto rather than an Islamic-oriented, albeit a moderate one, independent-minded person like Mian Nawaz Sharif. However in one respect, both leaders seem to concur, they see Pakistan in the comity of Central Asian nations rather than South Asian ones. In the economic sense they are right because when the traditional North-South routes (1) Quetta-Kandahar-Herat-Turgkundhi (2) Peshawar-Kabul-Mazar Sharif-Tarmiz (3) Islamabad-Gilgit-Khunjerab Pass-Kashgar start eventually functioning, Karachi (as well as Port Qasim) and the proposed ports at Gwadar, Ormara and Pasni will become the equivalent of California’s Gold Coast in the late 19th century/early 20th century. The farthest of the CARs could be reached within 3 days by truck after the ships berth at Karachi (or other developing Pakistani ports) and a vice-versa natural outlet for the commodities and products of the former Soviet States.

On the other hand, other than the obduracy of India, SAARC happens to be a natural economic and strategic entity. In South Asia, every nation without exception has a grievance of sorts with India. It is no coincidence that the two smallest nations, Bhutan and Maldives, which do not seem to protest, have been bullied into silence. Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal have major problems with India with no hope of solution in the face of Indian aspirations for regional hegemony. While Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have become militarily much stronger in the last decade, Pakistan’s Armed Forces, though numerically on a ratio of 1:3 and even 1:4 with India, are more than a match in all three dimensions of warfare, land, air and sea. With the recent Indian Peace-Keeping Force (IPKF) experience in mind, India would be reluctant to again risk its soldiers on Sri Lankan soil. As far as Bangladesh is concerned, interior lines of defence permit limited offensives against vulnerable Indian Lines of Communication and cities within stone’s throw of Bangladesh borders (Calcutta, Darjeeling, Shillong, Agartala, etc) on almost all the country’s periphery. Just the mass panic created would tie down Indian logistics for weeks. If India’s semi-rapprochement with China had not permitted India to re-locate some of its mountain divisions, India would be hard put to contain the various insurgencies in its eastern theatre, viz Nagas, Mizos, Assamese, Bodos, Manipuri, etc. He may have made the initial proposal for SAARC but Late Gen Ziaur Rahman’s actual dream seemed to encompass an “Association of Eastern States of South Asia” (the AESSA concept), a natural cohesion comprising Bangladesh as the pivot country acting as an economic, political, social and geographical crossroads to newly emerging republics of Bengal (West Bengal), Gorkhaland, Bodoland, Assam, Mizoram, Nagaland, Tripura, etc. Though it may be State policy to state otherwise, indigenous guerilla movements in these areas could never be sustained without some Bangladeshi help. It is certain that Gen Ershad, always a great organizer, continued “Zia’s Lebensraum” policy with some fervour during the 80s decade. If ever formed, AESSA would be an extremely viable entity. In any case historical and cultural ties deter Pakistan from down-grading its relationship with South Asian countries. The natural affinity with Bangladesh is based on complementary economies, despite the best effort of Pakistani bureaucracy, trade on reciprocal basis has never really ceased. Throughout the 80s Bangladesh had Special Trading Arrangements (STAs) with Pakistan, this functioned in fits and starts. Mr. Nurul Hasan Khan, then Bangladesh Consul General in Karachi (1982-84), was the leading proponent of such a concept to rationalize trade which was increasingly in Pakistan’s favour. A modicum of parity lasted till an over-enthusiastic more “loyal than the king” bureaucrat called Riazul Hossain himself became the “chief trader”, his amateurish effort destroying the trade equilibrium. By the time he left, Bangladeshi exports to Pakistan, mainly jute goods and tea had collapsed, to date this man’s blunders have cost the Government of Bangladesh US$ 300 million in trade-related foreign exchange earnings. An economic alliance between the two countries with no tariffs on the goods of each of the two countries, allowing jute, jute goods, tea, newsprint and paper to freely enter Pakistan while opening the Bangladesh market for cheaper raw cotton, rice, cotton textiles, etc at competitive prices is a must. A return to pre-1971 economic position will usher in commercial and industrial benefits to both countries. An expanded version of this economic entity could take in Sri Lanka as another natural trading partner with access to and from CARs for the affiliated countries as an added benefit.

Mian Nawaz Sharif’s Ost-Politik includes a natural antipathy for India as well as a strong belief in a continuation of a well developed Pakistan-Bangladesh amity, to a lesser extent with Sri Lanka. In contrast, Ms Benazir Bhutto’s inclination is to have a bi-lateral dialogue with India with no commensurate importance given to either Bangladesh or Sri Lanka (or any other SAARC country except India) on a relative basis. For Mian Nawaz Sharif, Bangladesh is important for both emotional and logical reasons whereas Ms Benazir’s penchant is to go the logical route only but with no real commitment. Only domestic policy considerations dictate her present anti-Indian stance.

As trade and commerce between the ECO countries develop, Pakistan will be naturally drawn to a Central Asian identity rather than a South Asian one. During the days of united Pakistan, the defence of the East was naively considered to be based in an offensive capability in the West. In a strange twist of fate. Pakistani strategists may analyse that Pakistan’s defence may get a boost if India is compelled to maintain substantial forces to contain Bangladesh within its international (but not natural) frontiers. As many Indian troops Bangladesh is able to keep tied down (short of an outright war) gives Pakistan that many less Indians to face and thus a game chance at more than evening the odds with a numerically superior enemy. While Pakistan looks for a new relationship to the West and North-West as its new economic and strategic identity, we cannot afford to pass up on our special mutually beneficial relationship with Bangladesh, this must be fostered and expanded in the years to come so that history will look back on these sovereign nations as two independent entities having one single belief in their respective destinies.

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