The doomsday scenario – Wattoo and Rwanda
Punjab Chief Minister, Manzoor Ahmad Wattoo, has proved himself to be a wily politician and a capable administrator. Where Ghulam Ishaq Khan and late Jam Sadiq Ali, the last two great exponents of the Machiavellian brand of politics in the country, had the benefit of sweeping bureaucratic powers and ruthless force respectively, Punjab’s Sphinx (nobody ever remembers him smiling or showing any other emotion) rules over the roost with a small base of only 16 members of the PML (J) along with an equal number of independents and minority members who joined Wattoo post his accession to power. An increasingly frustrated 100 odd legislators of his nominal PPP allies are kept in the dark and the cold alternately, not to count the 100 odd legislators of his old ally, the PML (N), that he has kept at bay. A vociferous Opposition would love to have him for breakfast but take comfort in the fact that Wattoo has put the PPP in greater discomfort (and as a result, disarray). Hostage to Wattoo’s vacillations, the Punjab PPP rank and file are dissuaded from outright revolt because of the vital PML (J) support (7 NA seats) that props up the Centre.
Losing his own traditional seat in the last elections, Wattoo could only scrape through by the barest of margins in a constituency gifted to him by the PPP. Without casting aspersion on the personality of this able but devious man, one must recognize that this is essentially a reign of the minority over the majority, not the stuff of democracy. Wattoo safely remains in power through a combination of bluff, spreading of political largesse and the “Wattoo shuffle” (a constant movement of the political feet denying anyone a fixed target). On the other hand, the President of PML (J), Mr (holier-than-thou) Hamid Nasir Chattha, symbolically denies any lust for power by refusing cabinet posts but remains blissfully comfortable in blatantly imposing his minority faction over the PPP’s real right to rule in the Punjab.
Democracy is supposed to be a manifestation of the mandate of the people, on this basic premise have the people of Punjab given a mandate to Wattoo to rule? Or better expressed perhaps, is the present government of the Punjab representative of the will of the people? According to the democratic practices given in the Constitution, with PPP’s 100 odd seats Wattoo has a majority of the legislators in Punjab backing him and has thus a legal right to rule. Is the fact of 32 legislators holding sway over the balance 200 a logically correct situation? Since certainly it is not, there must be something wrong in the Constitution that permits such a scenario. Extremely unhappy with its “rule”, a vast majority of PPP’s Punjab legislators are forced to abide by party discipline, frankly not the embodiment of democracy where everyone has a right to express his or her own conscience without any restraint.
While both Ms Benazir and Mian Nawaz Sharif would like to blame each other for everything conceivable under the sun, it is time they focussed on the real dangers to the system, that we are living a democratic farce that tends to sharpen rather than assuage our ethnic and sectarian differences. Unless we take immediate, practical steps to remedy the situation, democracy will again become a part of history in this country, at least for some time. If we were to criticise Ms Benazir for playing politics in not using the grassroots political approach to solving Karachi’s problem, can we honestly absolve Mian Nawaz Sharif of accepting the odious presence of Syed Ghous Ali Shah as the President of the PML (N) in Sindh ? Since both the Parties are not prepared to cleanse themselves, how can they honestly find solutions for the many problems facing this nation?
Rwanda is essentially a simple straightforward racial conflict between the Hutus and the Tutsis, bedevilled somewhat by the successful rebellion by the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF). It is an example of how bad things can become when a spark sets off a conflagration and the simplest of conflicts get out of hand. Unlike Rwanda, Pakistan is a federation of many races, held together first by the common bond of religion and the compulsions of geography. While ethnic division is bad enough for any State founded on ideology, further division into various sects has the inherent potential of complicating the situation. Cross sub-division along religious fault lines, castes, etc further compounds the mess. This is further aggravated when the economic pie doesn’t grow as fast as the population and the socio-economic infrastructure starts to collapse. Most problems about nationality have their genesis in adverse economic circumstances. Despite the billions stolen and salted away in numbered accounts in Swiss and other banks, we remain economically vibrant because there is an inherent resilience in the economy mainly due to our geographical location in the region and the fact that we are one of the few Third World countries self-sufficient in food and clothing. However there is a very visible and increasing gap between the rich and the poor, with the middle class badly affected. As an illustration of the depth of the economy, the quantum of aid received during the Afghan crisis was a mere pittance when compared with the 3 million refugees on our soil, yet Pakistan survived and remained economically secure.
The only way that we can break away from the stranglehold of sect and castes, etc is to make the democratic process meaningful. For democracy to work, the concept of adult franchise must be taken to its natural conclusion, that is, leadership from the lowest tier to the highest echelons must vest in those who represent the real majority of the people. This can only be achieved if there is a run-off round to succeed the first round in an election when any candidate fails to muster a simple majority. The positive way of looking at this would be that to obtain that simple majority, the candidates would cut across ethnic and sectarian lines with the electorate joining together to vote a person into office. In the negative sense, the majority in a constituency would have to join together to keep a person who they find unacceptable out of office. Either way, this method would ensure that out of the necessity of circumstances the population would be forced to merge in spite of ethnic or sectarian differences. Thus we would have democracy functioning in the real sense and we could then give actual power back to the people. It is incongruous that today we accept that elected representatives are capable of running Federal and Provincial Governments but are not capable of running District, Sub-Division and Precinct Local Governments. Power must flow from grassroots upwards, not the other way around. Unless the Local Bodies function, higher levels of governments do not have a moral right to exist.
The breakdown of law and order destroys the economic environment for both domestic and foreign investment. Though Ms Benazir’s energy policy is a resounding success because of the massive foreign interest it has attracted, one of the few rays of light in the general gloom, its force-multiplier economic potential can only be tapped if people do not shy away because of the insecure environment. Without economic input, any dreams of progress are doomed to turn into nightmares. For a safe and secure environment, it is necessary to create employment, a regular Catch-22 whose cycle can only be broken by a concerted effort by the major political parties. In such a scenario, whatever may be his individual merits as a leader, Wattoo remains an example of the handicaps we must jettison in our journey to economic emancipation.
A comprehensive solution could envisage a package whereby the PML(N) would allow the PPP to rule the Punjab sans Wattoo in return for early General Elections to usher in the new system. By declaring a mutual armistice in support of an integrated, grassroots democratic modus operandi, the two major political parties would be doing enormous service to the nation. Without such initiatives on the part of the leading politicos, the Armed Forces would be put in an untenable position. The forces of law and order are always undecided about the invisible fail-safe line beyond which breakdown of order deteriorates into anarchy and as such almost always fail to intervene at the most opportune moment. Progressively the cost of maintaining peace goes up till the threat of force does not remain a bogey anymore and street disorder turns into insurrection leading to a full fledged revolution. For decades the Shah of Iran ruled by the use of ruthless force, yet because he was indecisive in the end game about the quantum of force to be used and when, the streets degenerated into absolute anarchy. Despite the belated use of tremendous brute force, the Army could not contain the mobs. In the face of this rapid escalation of violence and reaction thereof, the disciplined Praetorian Guard created by the Shah disintegrated in his face. If Ayatollah Khomeini had not harnessed the erupting volcano in Iran, the bloodshed would have been much more massive. If the situation goes out of control in Pakistan and turns into anarchy, where will we find someone like the Ayatollah to keep Pakistan from turning into another Rwanda?
Interference sometimes becomes a necessary evil (The Doctrine of Necessity) to ward off Rwanda-like disaster but Martial Laws are essentially a thing of the past. The MQ experience has taught us new sophistication where the uniform seldom requires to display its visible power or the cult of personality of its leaders which tend to turn individual ambitions into catastrophes for the nation. Given that it is now only a matter of time before ethnic and sectarian conflict engulfs all the institutions in its deadly embrace, the present imbalanced social equilibrium must be corrected. The powers-that-be may start the process with quiet suggestion perhaps, but they must take the initiative soon lest they be left with no country to defend. Maligned and tainted preachers we journalists may be but we must still try to bring the conscience of the nation to bear, the country needs to be warned of the dangers of inaction. In the midst of a vast mass of population, one gets the feeling of being almost alone in the dark, of wailing a soundless cry echoed only by a few. It may be a plaintive question but it must be asked, is somebody listening, anyone, anywhere?
Did you enjoy this post? Why not leave a comment below and continue the conversation, or subscribe to my feed and get articles like this delivered automatically to your feed reader.
Comments
No comments yet.
Leave a comment