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Nuclear rollback and Gorazde

Two important visitors have come from Washington this month, US Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott and former Pakistan Caretaker PM, Moeen Qureshi. The mission of the first visitor was clearly defined, to discuss the verification of “capping” done to our nuclear ambitions, Moeen Qureshi’s purpose seemed to be more subtle but unambiguous nevertheless, to nudge the present government towards a more amenable position (translation, scrapping) with respect to our nuclear deterrent. For the record, the PM Ms Benazir Bhutto stoutly denied that any “rollback” or “verification” would be accepted. All this time, the government’s media spin-masters, both official and unofficial, have been preparing the public for a gradual acceptance of an obvious policy, that Pakistan is ready to accept verification of both “capping” and “rollback”. One learned gentleman even went on TV to theorize quite knowledgeably that since we do not have a “second strike” possibility, why compete with India at all? One would hope that any Air Force in the world would not discuss its air strategy (strike capabilities) in public let alone with such luminaries who have regaled the public with late Gen Asif Nawaz’s “murder” and went on to predict in a sophisticated disinformation campaign a lop-sided election result in PPP’s favour, both in which they have been proven spectacularly wrong.

One quite understands the concern that western countries, US of A in particular, have about nuclear proliferation. A nuclear capability is a dangerous potential, in less-than-responsible hands it could be fatal for the world. Given that for the last two decades Islam and fanaticism are rather synonymous, there is understandably apprehension that nuclear devices could be used for terrorism if it got into the wrong hands. While we have not yet been bracketed with Iraq, Libya and North Korea, the war in Afghanistan served to expose the “fundamentalist links” that almost got us into the “terrorist nations” list. People with weapons of such mass destruction when associated with the concept of revenge are naturally viewed with suspicion in the west. Unable to counter concerted Indian propaganda campaign feeding on such fears, Pakistan is increasingly defensive about its nuclear capabilities.

To those who would give up our nuclear deterrent for “adequate safeguards”, one should patiently invite attention to the present plight of Bosnia, the tragedy of Gorazde is still unfolding. When the city of Gorazde was declared a safe enclave guarded by the UN, did the Serbs listen? Even as they talked to UN Envoy Akashi, their tanks kept raining death at close range. Half hearted aerial attacks by UN were responded by enhanced use of brute force, a British Harrier fighter aircraft was shot down resulting in the suspension of further air sorties. The UN force was removed by helicopters because Lt Gen Michael Rose, the UN Force Commander in Bosnia-Herzegovina, felt that his 14,000-14,500 soldiers were there simply as “Peacekeepers” and he had a responsibility for their lives in supersession to the lives of 60,000 men, women and children in Gorazde, good luck to the Bosnian Muslims facing the Serbs! Having dithered for over two years while Bosnia burnt and Bosnians died the west may now lift the arms embargo. This will at least allow the Bosnians to die with honour.

Pakistan faces an implacable foe in this South Asian sub-continent, one that has seized ten times more of its neighbour’s territories in the past four decades than the Serbs have. India has problems with all its neighbours, browbeating all of them except Pakistan into submission of one kind or another. India has fought three wars with Pakistan and still wages a deadly terrorist campaign through surrogate secessionist movements, funding a proxy war in both urban and rural areas of Pakistan. The deadly hand of RAW is discernible in most bomb attacks even after its unholy partner, communist Afghanistan’s KHAD has disappeared. India’s conventional forces arrayed against Pakistan have a three-to-one numerical and material advantage. Freed of commitments on the Chinese and Bangladesh borders, this can go upto as much as 6 to 1. It has a developed ballistic missile potential and exploded its A-Bomb for “peaceful purposes” as far back as 1974. It is facing an indigenous uprising in Kashmir terrain ideal for guerilla warfare. What if India is put under deeper pressure by the Kashmiri Mujahideen and decides to ease it by internationalizing the conflict. Having laid the media groundwork by labelling Pakistan as a State sponsoring terrorism at every forum in the world, what deterrent would we have to their nuclear and ballistic blackmail? As the other countries in South Asia have found out, India’s “good neighbour” pretensions are suspect. For Pakistan, there can be no greater indicator about our solitude than the Human Rights fiasco at Geneva. In the face of mountains of evidence about murder, torture, maiming of Kashmiris, even our closest friends abandoned us. Does anyone in his/her right mind hold out any hope that any country would be willing to risk fighting for us when they are not prepared to give us support even on clear moral issues?

Possession of a nuclear capability can never be a source of joy for any country. The holocaust that can be visited on a population is very visible in history’s photographic memories of Nagasaki and Hiroshima. However, in the face of India’s overwhelming numbers a nuclear deterrent is the only defence we have. The science of deterrence is based on a “mutually assured destruction” (MAD) capability, you take out two cities, we have the means to reciprocate (and for the record it can be any number of strikes depending upon air strategy). That nuclear deterrence is our surest bet to get the world’s attention about our problems. “Rollback”, “capping” and “verification” are all possible if India reciprocates in the solution of our mutual problems, more particularly, Kashmir. A nuclear capability is the only trump card remaining with us and we should not become susceptible to any subtle propaganda from within Pakistan meant to lull us into disarming our capability. For the past 40 years, the US of A has been our ally in the fight against the Soviet brand of communism while India has always been a Soviet ally, we have to impress upon the United States that the same logic that made them give us the means to defend ourselves in the mid-50s hold good even today, that we have always been a reliable ally when they needed allies. With all its good intentions, the US cannot send its air power or manpower to defend us as much as they cannot defend Bosnia today. In the end, Pakistan has to defend itself, the Armed Forces are the surest guarantor of this freedom. For peace-niks who have never heard of Munich in their concerted policy of appeasement, a trip to the unfolding tragedy in Bosnia is necessary. For those who would voluntarily give away our God-given right to defend ourselves, we do not have to say “Remember Gorazde”, that is an abomination on the world’s conscience available for us to see on prime time TV everyday. To the Armed Forces one has only one piece of advice, to an extent you have been taken in by glib words that are meant to dull your senses while the country is being looted in broad daylight. Since you have chosen to close your eyes to such chicanery, so be it, but for the sake of this country, close your ears to that rhetoric that is meant to substantially weaken our defences.

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