Pakistan as a terrorist state
The US State Department has sent the names of Pakistan and Sudan to US Congress for debate and consideration for being declared as terrorist States. Pakistan has been living for some time on a fine-line from such a distinction that would put us alongside Iran, Libya, Iraq, North Korea, etc, notwithstanding the morality of an erstwhile ally, the US, in turning 180 degrees around from its own stance during the Afghan war with respect to the commitment to support freedom movements. One should not be under any illusion that Pakistan’s inclusion in terrorist State status will not cause great hardships to the population of the country economically and politically. One must also not be under any illusion that the US does not know what is going on inside Kashmir, that would be insulting one’s intelligence (and that is not intended as a pun). We are back therefore to Square One where we started back in 1976 when US Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger, promised to make an “horrible example” out of us if we did not desist from our nuclear pretensions, US economic and military aid was then terminated forthwith. That brings us to the final loss of illusion that having been the frontline State in the successful prosecution of the “hot” war in Afghanistan (and by proxy the cold war against the Soviet Union) which led to the destruction of the “evil empire” (sic former President Reagan), the nation that opposed the US tooth and nail in every forum and at every conceivable opportunity over four decades, India, should now reap the rewards of the various sacrifices that Pakistan gave, especially during the 80s decade.
Instead of debating the implications for Pakistan, which are horrendous to contemplate by any description, one should debate the implications for US policy in the region in the short, medium and long term. Shortly after Pakistan is declared as a terrorist State, Iran’s association with Pakistan will deepen significantly. Out of the necessity of geo-political home truths rather than any deep-rooted desire an economic, political and military union will take place almost immediately. As much as Pakistanis continue to look askance at Iran’s perceived fanaticism a la the Hezbollah movements we cannot afford to live in complete isolation particularly when an implacable foe like India continues to remain hostile on our eastern borders. This would be a confederation that may thrill the hearts of some who are vociferous in the propagation of Islamic unity of the Ummah and their beliefs but the great silent majority of Pakistanis would be more than happy to maintain their separate identity.
Once Iran is allied with Pakistan, the bloc of Central Asia has nowhere to go but become an integral political part of the association that is called the Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO). One accepts that Turkey would opt out of this Union for everything but economic purposes but given Turkey’s deep historical friendship with Pakistan, Turkey will remain of great support to Pakistan in spite of being part of NATO. It is not wishful thinking to surmise that it will certainly not support any economic blockade of Pakistan. As the world knows, Turkey does very much what it feels like, standing firm on its principles much more than other comparable nations. Turkey’s friendship with Pakistan is a fact of life that has seen reciprocation over the years. Similarly Saudi Arabia and UAE have similar deep-rooted relationship with Pakistan as do the other Gulf countries. The western countries may try to impose a blockade on Pakistan but not through Turkey or the Arabs.
A few days or weeks after the Iran-Pakistan nexus becomes a reality and a boycott of sorts is in force, the pariah on the block, Saddam Hussein will land up on the doorstep, hat in hand, to ask forgiveness for any transgressions done or perceived and request that Iraq be allowed to join the band, based on the theory that all those in isolation need to be unified against the source of their isolation. This proposal will certainly run against the grain in both countries, Iran more than Pakistan but adversity has created worse and stranger bedfellows in the past and one daresays, will in the future. Iraq’s joining of the union will put the whole ball game into a new perspective. Three great but desperate military, political and economic machines would have come together, making the Middle Eastern countries (and their oil) seemingly vulnerable even without any offensive intent or posture. This apprehension would be despite the fact that Pakistan would never do anything detrimental to Saudi Arabia or the Gulf countries. In the circumstances, Jordan and Syria, despite their various reservations would also be hard put to keep out of some sort of a collaboration with the growing union. But above all, it would put into great jeopardy the cornerstone of US Arab policy, the Egyptian Armed Forces, Islamic pressures making that entity much more vulnerable to fundamentalism than anyone can imagine.
The Arab monarchies in such circumstances would hardly like to be isolated in the Muslim comity of nations and to protect the western interests in Middle East oil an “Operation Desert Shield 2” would have to be implemented in the face of Arab opposition, a massive and permanent US air, ground and naval presence to protect the oilfields from perceived external invasion from the rapidly emerging new bloc. Whether the other western nations would be willing participants in such a permanent force is open to question. The odds-on favourite as the US proxy in the region is India as a replacement for the Shah of Iran’s policemen role envisaged in the 70s. As Islam and Hinduism are on a direct collision course it would be futile to suggest that anyone in the Middle East would under any circumstances accept the patronage and presence of the Indian military on their soil, notwithstanding the far out possibility that India would be able to spare any ground and air forces while Pakistan is alive and kicking.
The aforementioned is very much a hypothetical situation which may well become a reality. As much as it would be a living nightmare for Pakistanis to be associated with Saddam Hussein in any manner, pragmatism will dictate reluctant acceptance of such an eventuality. While India may try surgical air strikes against our suspected nuclear facilities, which if existent should have been well dispersed anyhow, the net result would be for general proliferation of nuclear know how throughout the Islamic world, more as a defence mechanism rather than an articulated offensive policy towards the west. The US has been a friend of Pakistan, to paraphrase a Chinese proverb “why is the US using a hatchet to kill a fly on Pakistan’s forehead?” While Pakistan should take all measures to defuse the situation, it is imperative that the US be made to appreciate Pakistan’s logical and legal position about Kashmir and the inability of any individual in Pakistan, let alone those comprising the government to seal off moral and material support completely to Kashmiris in Indian Occupied Kashmir. As it is successive governments have been vilified by the Pakistani masses for not giving material support to the Kashmiris when the Indians are perpetrating atrocities of the most inhuman kind. Is it possible for Pakistanis to stand by and see the Indian version of “ethnic cleansing” in Kashmir, the ridding of Kashmir of Kashmiris by torture, rape, killing, arson, etc?
If the letter of US law is to be followed to its logical conclusions, let the US declare Pakistan a terrorist State but before that, in the great tradition of American fairplay, let the US Congress send a full fledged delegation inside Indian-Occupied Kashmir to see the situation for themselves. India’s State sponsored terrorism is too well documented to be ignored but we will accept that also be ignored, however unfair. If what they see inside Kashmir conforms to the cherished American beliefs about life, liberty and freedom as enjoined by their own forefathers and for which thousands of American young men have given their lives in distant lands in distant wars for other people’s freedom over the years, we will accept our status as a terrorist State.
Before we are pushed into a scenario that may not be so far out as it may seem, let us examine the full implication thereof. We will also accept the consequences that come with the label of a terrorist State as much as the US will have to bear the consequences of discarding a friend it used to call the cornerstone of US policy in the region. This is what the voice of the great silent majority in Pakistan says, the voice of those who believe that we must not turn our backs on the US but that the US must also understand we cannot turn our backs on Kashmir and its people.
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