Crossroads Pakistan
Over the past two years momentous changes have taken place, the world map is still being continuously reworked as new countries emerge out of the memories of the late nineteenth/early twentieth century and some even earlier than that, e.g. Macedonia (Skopje). With Stalinist communism’s iron grip loosened, the countries of Eastern Europe behind the Iron Curtain quickly acquired their freedom and in some cases proceeded to further split from their artificial nationhoods. Yugoslavia has split asunder bloodily and is still doing so, Czechs and Slovaks have chosen to divide following a more peaceful route, other new nations are waiting in the wings to come onto the international stage. The Soviet Union, having lost control over its servile and subjugated former “allies”, itself split into a dozen or so republics comprising the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). These new Republics are having their own problems keeping intact, exposing the hollow unity that the Soviet brand of communism had wrought throughout the region it held fiat over.
Pakistan began 1992 on a hopeful note, with the disintegration of the Soviet Union in late 1991 the Afghan proxy (Najibullah) could not be kept propped up artificially anymore, we waited for the rotten apple to come down to Earth. That the Afghans kept on fighting among themselves once this had happened in April 1992 was not unexpected, what did come as a surprise was the professional manner we managed a swift and silent wholesale change in our foreign policy orientation because of the emergence of the Central Asian Republics of the former Soviet Union. Historically we have always looked to the north as the origin of potential enemies, suddenly the whole geo-political circumstances have changed to make it a contiguous region of great economic opportunity.
As a South Asian nation belonging to the sub-continent, Pakistan is geographically important because it is adjacent to the oil-rich Persian Gulf and has a coastline that is not constricted by the narrow passage at the mouth of the Gulf. Virtually a barren land presently, the Pakistan coastline is a haven for smugglers who use this route for bringing in gold, electronics and consumer items for Pakistan, Afghanistan and Northern India, while taking out heroin and foodstuffs as well as human beings (Dubai Chalo) and live animals, particularly goats and sheep. With markets of the many republics of Central Asia now open for economic activity from the south, it is a fair bet that smuggler activity will increase manifold. There will be pressure from the other South Asian countries particularly India to send their goods and commodities to Central Asia overland directly or using the sea-route for access to the land-route through Pakistan, legally and illegally. Fed by the five rivers converging on the mighty Indus, the delta lands of agriculture Pakistan have the potential of feeding almost the whole Southern region. We are the bread-basket of the South Asian sub-continent.
The centuries old Tsarist dream of warm waters was centred on the coastline that is the now Pakistan. In effect we also thus become part of Central Asia. While we take trade and commerce to be confined in this respect to the republics of Central Asia, the fact of the matter is that vast areas of Asian Russia have good access throughout the year only through Pakistan and Iran. A cursory glance at the map will show that Pakistan, in preference to Iran, is the linchpin country for unrestricted access to the sea. Similarly all the countries of the world striving for access to the market potential of these new republics will look to a strong, stable Pakistan to provide the economic bridgehead.
Geographically speaking we are a Middle Eastern country without the benefit of oil reserves. Our relationship with the Middle Eastern countries may be strong because of religious affiliations, it is made stronger because of economic reasons. A large number of Pakistani expatriates have made a positive contribution to the development of the region and are working in various countries through the broad spectrum of employment available. A fair amount of trade and commerce also goes on, legally and illegally. Many citizens of the Middle Eastern countries have invested in real estate in Pakistan, some even in industrial ventures. The repatriated funds from our expatriates make an enormous contribution to our foreign account deficit. As the Middle Eastern countries get industrialized, oil will eventually cease to be their primary export to Pakistan and instead of being a conduit for electronics and consumer items they will become the originator of manufactured goods. As it is Saudi Arabia is already sending wheat to Pakistan under IDB financing. Once the RCD Highway becomes a reality and the railway gets connected, South Asia would be connected to the European rail system. As Pakistan gets economically stable more investment will flow from the Middle East throughout the economic spectrum.
From the aforementioned it is quite clear that Pakistan has become an important crossroads country, very much like Singapore economically dominates the sea-lanes of South Asia, South East Asia, East Asia and Oceania and is an oceania crossroads. Unlike Singapore which has no integral land space, no raw materials, water or food, Pakistan is blessed in all of these by divine Providence. We have more than sufficient land space and tremendous reserves of various raw material. Except near the coastline and some hinterland area, we are not short of potable water anywhere. We are one of the few Third World countries self-sufficient in food. Our fruits and vegetables are of top quality, some are exported, most of our produce lands up in adjacent countries illegally anyway. We must take advantage of this by making Pakistan one vast FREE PORT, having a small tariff for in and out movements of goods and commodities.
The Nawaz Sharif Government has embarked on a massive public works programme to rapidly modernize the communications sector. Most of the effort is directed towards high speed motorways travelling down the length of Pakistan as well as interconnecting highways and additional carriage ways. The input is tremendous and the economic face of Pakistan will change as a result. There is talk about a high speed Bullet Train and development of Gwadar Port on a priority basis. The planned coastal road from Karachi to Gwadar will open up the Pakistani Coastline and many more modern port settlements (Pasni, Ormara, etc) with adjacent industrial zones are anticipated in the “New Frontier”, providing for millions of new jobs. Already the economy has been liberalised to cater for massive foreign investment to match the domestic input. With foreign exchange regulations eased and private banks allowed in the financial sector, the wherewithal to support extraordinary development is in place. There has been significant increase in production of oil and gas because of the pragmatic policies of the Petroleum Ministry, in the next two to three years with the same pace we should be able to domestically produce enough crude and have enough refining capacity to be almost self-sufficient for our petroleum needs. If we are able to fulfil the promise of vast reserves of oil, our tremendous manpower potential will turn us into a possible world power.
With all this happening, there are certain areas that urgently need the government’s attention but we need to elucidate two major areas, starting with our foreign policy perceptions. One must confess that when a politician with no known foreign affairs qualifications was put in as Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, we were rather skeptical about the outcome. While one definitely agrees with the concept of politicians rather than bureaucrats or technocrats being in charge of all ministries, it was expected that somebody with experience in formulating and executing foreign policy would be chosen. But surprises of surprises, MNA Mohammad Siddique Khan has turned in an excellent performance overcoming the freeze that foreign service professionals tend to put into foreign policy relying on the adage that “dynamics is bad news and status quo is the name of the game”. He has managed to put across Pakistan’s viewpoint without sounding over-anxious during a time when there has been complete reorientation of our foreign policy perceptions. He has followed a deliberate purpose in pursuing national objectives, by all accounts this has been an excellent achievement during a remarkable period in our history and Kanju must be commended for taking the service professionals of the Foreign office along with him without causing ripples. Our foreign policy must not seem to overwhelm the Central Asian Republics, our geographical location gives us the advantage inasfar as they need us more than we need them. We can thus chart a steady, deliberate course without leaning too heavily on religious affiliations. Given the present leadership one expects the same pragmatic business-like approach that we have displayed vis-a-vis Afghanistan to continue with respect to the other States in the region.
Among many other initiatives necessary, the most important is the development of our Navy’s potential including having a long-range air arm capable of keeping a possible enemy fleet far from our shores. The aim would be to protect Pakistan’s coastline and keep our sea lanes to the west open during the period of hostilities i.e to the Gulf and the Suez. For this we need fewer surface ships but a combination of more deep sea submarines, fast missile boats and minesweepers. We need to have at least three more naval bases, other than the ones already in use or in advanced stage of construction, to operate from. Unless we have naval credibility our economic potential will be stifled by being vulnerable to interference. While developing the potential of our Armed Forces all-around, the greatest priority must be given to the Navy.
Pakistan is on the verge of economic emancipation because of its geo-political location and favourable changes in the adjacent regions. Democracy can only be sustained by continuous economic emancipation of the masses. Pakistan is the crossroads of Asia and the masses will certainly benefit by what has happened in the world over the past two years, provided we pursue our national objectives in a methodical and emotion-free manner without being subjected to domestic crisis.
Did you enjoy this post? Why not leave a comment below and continue the conversation, or subscribe to my feed and get articles like this delivered automatically to your feed reader.
Comments
No comments yet.
Leave a comment