The changing world
The collapse of the Soviet Union has triggered off a series of far-flung changes, the most profound dynamics being in Europe. The map of the world designated by the western powers post-World War I and redefined after World War II is in shambles. East Germany has come in from the cold to become a part of the more natural Federal Republic of Germany, Yugoslavia is haemorrhaging bloodily into many nations and the Czech-Slovak union is coming asunder, albeit peacefully uptil now. There is a re-drawing of more natural boundaries among the States of the old USSR, Russia having retreated from its hegemony in (and of) the Soviet Union to its original parameters. While the whole area is now endemic with conflict, the silver lining is that the emerging nation-states are populated by a more homogeneous ethnic mix less likely to fight over race and religion. The problem is that due to the artificial shifting of populations post-World War I, the Russian Revolution and post-World War II have created pockets of economic and political resistance to the new majority rule. This has led to continuing internecine conflict leading to widespread death and destruction, the image of the peaceful civilization of Europe is in tatters, reminiscent of the 30 year wars of medieval times though across a wider canvas and certainly far more brutal given the advancement in weaponry.
The Khmer Rouge continues to defy humanity in Cambodia though the writing is very much on the wall, more deaths and devastation will be inflicted on the already suffering people of that unfortunate nation. The bloody wars within India manage to escape international media focus. While Kashmir and Khalistan (Indian Punjab) do attract attention, the ruthless Indian suppression of separatist movements through its length and breadth do not surface except intermittently. While the campaign against Naxalites from Bengal and Bihar to Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, etc is well-known, how many of us hear about the Gorkha demand for independence (Gorkhaland) around Darjeeling in the narrow strip of land separating Bangladesh from Nepal? Or of others in the same region in the periphery of Bangladesh, inasfar as Bodo tribals are demanding Bodoland, the Assamese their independence, similarly the Nagas are for Nagaland, the Mizos for Mizoram and the Manipuris their own State. Even smallish Tripura wants to sunder its ties from India. The Afghan situation continues to remain complicated and in Iraqi Kurdistan there only seems to be a time-out in the continuing war-game spilling over into Iran and Turkey. The Palestinians perceive a ray of hope with the victory of Rabin of Labour over Shamir of Likud in the Israeli general elections, whether this will be translated into reality is open to skepticism and doubt. In South Africa, there has been a tremendous setback in the growing black-white detente as the ANC, led by Nelson Mandela, has walked out of the talks because of an horrific recent mass murder, the ensuing confrontation may retard further progress and lead to a return to bloody conflict.
The United States has wisely kept out of becoming the initiator of any of the changes, though it has helped the disintegration process along among its former enemies by a combination of benign neglect and judicious use of its political and economic strength. While the foreign policy objectives of the USA have probably been exceeded beyond anybody’s wildest dreams, it is in the domestic economic field that the US finds itself in doldrums. Though the trade deficit can be illusory as the money earned by consultancies and services are rarely reflected in trade income figures, the US seems to have a continuing negative balance, particularly in relation to Japan, Germany and the four Tigers of Asia, S. Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong. That they have not been able to shake off the long-lasting recession is extremely worrying to the American populace as unemployment has soared to record levels. With other domestic considerations, e.g. race riots, abortion issue, etc making the situation more complex, international successes by the US do not excite the electorate in this Presidential election year. For President Bush, architect (albeit sometimes in a hands-off way) of the most successful achievements in long-term US objectives in recent history, a second-term as US President should have been a shoo-in, instead he finds himself running second in opinion polls in the key States which contain his maximum strength, e.g. Texas and California. That too to a rank outsider, multi-billionaire businessman Ross Perot, rather than to his Democratic opponent, Bill Clinton.
Ross Perot is one of those anachronisms that are not new to US politics, a potential Sir Galahad, Don Quixote and Lancelot-type white knight rolled into one who sets off on a white charger to destroy the ogre represented by an indolent, corrupt government machinery that has caused the American people suffering due to indecisive, anti-national policies that hit at their economic and political present and future! What he tells us amounts to replacing the US Constitution but he does excite the attention of the US populace as much as a Patton or Truman would. The last serious effort of a rank outsider in Presidential politics was made by General MacArthur, true to his words, “old soldiers never die, they simply fade away,” as he did in 1951, failing in his Presidential bid he did not even manage to get on the ballot. This time around, Perot has used his well-known organisational and marketing expertise as founder-owner of Electronic Data Systems, Inc (EDS) to good effect, exploiting his skills in an all out electronic media campaign. The result has been a considerable lead over both the party candidates, Republican Bush and Democrat Clinton, as well as ballot qualifications for a large number of States already. The message is clear, the US voting public is more interested in how much mileage their pay checks bring them, that is if they have a pay check, unemployment figures being unusually high. There is a glimmer of hope in increased housing starts though car sales have not registered any major increase. A Perot candidacy should in theory be beneficial to the US given Perot’s penchant for forthright expression and placing of premium on long-term friendships. He could conceivably set the US on a pragmatic course both in economic and political fields. In practice he would be hamstrung by the combined opposition of both the major parties in both the Houses of US Congress jealously protecting their prerogatives, till he can manage his own coalition that transcends party ideology. But Perot requires much deeper cynosure, in the euphoria we seem to be missing a strong dictatorial streak and a flair for obduracy that belies his very convivial media image. Would the world be a safer place to live in with a shorter version of John Wayne hovering over the nuclear button in the White House?
About this time, in the last run-up to the Elections four years ago, Bush was way behind Michael Dukakis. By Election Day, Dukakis was already history, the only question was how large a majority Bush would manage. This time, Bush is again trailing second best in a horse-race of three candidates, of whom Ross Perot is tapping deeply into his traditional support. Woe betide us if because of this impasse, Clinton who comes across more as a Carter-clone than a Kennedy-imitation, should become President! As it is the Democratic Party is enamoured with India, with Pakistan already bereft of US economic and military aid because of suspected nuclear intentions, and now being accused of drug money laundering and the exporting of terrorism by a Republican Administration, a Clinton Presidency would set the US-Pakistan relationship back a number of years. Conceivably Perot would be less amenable to Indian duplicity and anti-US stance pre-demise of the Soviet Union but in short order we would be an opportunity target for the strong Indian lobby in the US Congress led by Stephen Solarz and in danger of becoming an endangered species.
Ross Perot is only emulating our businessman PM, Nawaz Sharif (and that is not said tongue-in-cheek). Most conflicts have economic overtones, ethnic grouping is only a fortress mentality in the protection of jobs. As the population increases apace and demands increase, the shortages of jobs makes the economic slice available much smaller. Wherever possible, the world is increasingly turning to economic experts to head functioning governments, this penchant is solidified if he (or she) has been a successful practitioner of what he preaches. Nawaz Sharif has laid the foundations of economic emancipation for Pakistan by beating down the walls of bureaucracy to an extent, as his own Ministers will attest, even in extremely logical, obvious cases this is still a maze that cannot be easily overcome.
All around us, the world is in a state of profound change, change may now be imminent in our country also. With due respects to the economic accomplishments of Nawaz Sharif, he has never managed to be similarly convincing politically. One accepts without question that his basic premise is to give Pakistanis a sincere and honest government but he has compromised and/or vacillated in taking decisions on a number of vital issues. The end result is that he may now be riding a tiger which is the creation of his own indecision. Having lost the elected government of Ms Benazir barely 2 years ago, albeit because of the shenanigans of in-laws and outlaws indulging in the commerce of politics, one wants that democracy should succeed, whatsoever may be its shortcomings. The plant of democracy can only survive when it is given the nourishment of time and opportunity. This can only be possible if the major democratic forces in the country combine to make a national government for a limited period of time.
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