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National consensus

Modern technology ensures that the ravages of war are seen in real-time on the TV screens, the media bringing the carnage and devastation into our homes on a daily basis. The wholesale destruction of urban areas, interspersed with the gory sight of the dead and wounded, defies adequate description but symbolizes the utter bankruptcy of internecine conflict on religious and/or ethnic grounds, exposing the narrow-mindedness of mankind at its petty and callous worst. Whenever reason fails, mindless slaughter is a natural end result, the origin of conflict deep-rooted in the greed and ambition of a few selfish individuals rather than in the psyche of the mass population which would like nothing better than to be allowed to live in peace and harmony. It does not matter whether it is Los Angeles, Sarajevo, Dushanbe, Kabul or Hyderabad, the facade of civilization in the form of structures can be rebuilt from the ashes but when civilized human beings behave like animals, will the soul of civilization be able to survive the onslaught? The entire responsibility for avoiding apocalypse thus devolves on the intelligentsia, in particular the political leadership.

The Afghan conflict seems to be in its last throes, having reached a crossroads of sorts. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the charmed luck of Najibullah ran out and he tried an end run of sorts out of Kabul, only to find the way to the airport blocked by Uzbek mercenaries of Rashid Dostum, bankrolled by him till his treasury emptied a couple of months ago, the mercenaries having switched sides as they are apt to do in such circumstances. Having played an important moderator’s role in the last stages of the Afghan conflict, as would be the wont of any incumbent Pakistani PM in similar circumstances, Nawaz Sharif has to learn and apply at home in actual practice the national consensus he has been preaching to the Afghan Mujahideen. The lessons from the conflicting demands of various factions in Afghanistan should not be lost on us, acute polarisation can reach such a stage where the only dialogue will be that of the deaf, conducted through assorted sophisticated weapons which are the spill-over of the Afghan war. Before hardened stances make the issues a matter of life and death in our urban areas and countryside, our leaders must engage in discussions to narrow down differences and cool passions, at least among a broad mass of the people. To that end, the Prime Minister’s invitation to Ms Benazir to exchange views is indeed welcome, Ms Benazir is right to ask for the agenda of the discussions lest it begin and end only with mundane pleasantries. The two leaders represent the majority view of the population of this country, by engaging in meaningful dialogue they should not only spell out a national consensus of what they agree about but also mark out the parameters for further discussions on those issues that are contentious.

Over the past 15 months, Nawaz Sharif has put into place spectacular economic reforms while managing to stumble from one political crisis to another. Keeping his coalition intact has been a problem, smaller parties have tended to blackmail the establishment. Fortunately for him, his political shortcomings have not been fatal. Conversely and unfortunately for him, his economic policies have not had time to take hold, resulting in a severe economic crisis during the transition period. Nawaz Sharif is served well by some of his ministers, the most outstanding being Ch Nisar Ali Khan and Sartaj Aziz, followed by Malik Naeem, Raja Nadir Pervaiz, Fakhr Imam, Hamid Nasir Chattha, etc. On the other hand a great many of the Federal ministers lack credibility, both in their official and personal capacities. As much as Nawaz Sharif is the handpicked creation of the circumstances of Martial Law, his regime has now become a prisoner of a democratic set of circumstances. As much as his rhetoric is flamboyant about ameliorating the miseries of the masses and his economic policies are long-term, the time lag in his economic reforms to take hold could lead to social explosion. Nawaz Sharif’s politics has necessarily been one of expediency, very much the reactions of a businessman exploiting opportunity. The Sindh situation is much worse than it was during Ms Benazir’s reign, the interior of Sindh is in open rebellion (or the next thing to such a state). The late Jam Sadiq Ali at least came across his own master for better or for worse, unfortunately the urbane, engaging and articulate Muzzafar Ali Shah is virtually the captive of a small coterie (that is not the real representatives of interior Sindh). As much as the capable Muzzafar Ali Shah comes across as an honest intellectual, he must be decidedly uncomfortable in the embrace of a power game which is self-seeking and self-serving at best, at the expense of the fragile unity of the country. In Sindh today, the debate of using or not using the Army to go after the dacoits (and nouveau separatists) is not a moot point anymore, the question rather is of when (indeed if it is not too late) and with what speed and despatch. In Balochistan, the Province is split clearly along ethnic lines, without a permanent solution of the problem a permanent divide may be the result in this resource rich, strategically important province. With Coop and land scandals in his home base of Punjab rampant, Nawaz Sharif has emulated Reagan’s Teflon-hide performance, surviving mainly because of the inept performance of the Opposition in trying to bring him down as well as the continuing support of the President Ghulam Ishaq Khan who is under siege for a perceived vested personal interest in sustaining the status quo vis-a-vis the Administration in Sindh. Relatively speaking, Sarhad has been a bastion of stability despite the Afghan fracas even though the PM’s own partymen (at least those not holding office) had a go at ANP recently, resulting in a round of apologies to the ANP hierarchy by the red-faced among the PM’s cabinet. While politics may not bring the government to its knees, the economy in the form of the coming Federal Budget is likely to do so, the Budget deficit being closer to a phenomenal Rs 90 billion than the creative-accounting figure of (a staggering) Rs. 72 billion.

While failing miserably to topple the government by street power, the Opposition has now become more subtle in its moves, even fostering a measure of unity within their ranks. Over the past year, we have seen the political maturing of Ms Benazir, portents of which are very visible now, one would have found impossible to hope for this even a few months ago. One of the most pragmatic moves made by the PPP has been to send adequate signals that they did not intend to continue treating the Army as a favourite whipping-boy but as a potent force that is of political significance in Pakistan, even if the Army has no direct or indirect inclination of interfering or even seeming to interfere with any aspect of politics in Pakistan. Ms Benazir became PM because she had the maximum number of parliamentarians backing her, as should be in a democracy. The Army did not oppose her assuming the post of PM because unlike the late Gen Ziaul Haq, the military hierarchy generally (with honourable exceptions, no pun intended) had no blood feud with the PPP. The Army simply wants to be left alone, it is only  interference that invites reaction. The problem in Ms Benazir’s reign started with the placing of her father’s trusted aides in slots for which they were not suited as well as the corruption scandals surrounding her husband. Maj Gen (Retd) Nasirullah Khan Babar was more inclined to a command appointment rather than a staff job, instead of being made de facto Chief of Staff to the PM, he should have been given his old job as Governor NWFP. On the other hand, Maj Gen (Retd) Imtiaz Ali would have made an excellent Chief of Staff of the PM’s Secretariat, having wielded similar power in her father’s incumbency as his Military Secretary, putting him as Advisor for Defence was counter-productive for many reasons. Easily the worst decision was to put Gen (Retd) Tikka Khan to head the confrontation against the IJI Government of Nawaz Sharif in the Punjab as Governor of the Province.  Tikka Khan ensured that Nawaz Sharif was thrust, inspite of himself, into greatness as the symbol of opposition to the PPP. Ms Bhutto’s moves in recent weeks, including not opposing the election of the Sindh Chief Minister, has gained for her a lot of political credit. No doubt she remains a firebrand, in a sense she has come of political age. This is good news for Pakistan because she is the unchallenged head of a political party with natural roots in all the Provinces. She has her own bevy of political superstars in people like Aftab Sherpao, Farooq Leghari, etc, it matters not whether Nawaz Sharif or Ms Benazir are in the Opposition or the ruler’s chair, in a nascent democracy maturity is a priceless asset for the nation.

With the country beset by internal strife and economic apocalypse, with the geo-political situation undergoing rapid changes, it is extremely necessary for our political leaders to open and continue a serious dialogue, the only forum for it is the formation of a national government. The country’s two main political groups have barely a few percentage points difference in their vote-getting potential, it is time that together they tackle the national issues on an emergent and cohesive basis. Personal ambition has to be subordinated to the national interest and only those party functionaries known for their personal integrity and honesty should be part of the Federal and Provincial Cabinets. Indeed the first priority of the national government should be a bipartisan effort to prosecute the corrupt irrespective of their party affiliation or status, this can only be done by a national government. The alternative to a democratic solution to the present crisis, before it spins out of control causing serious internal strife, is to have a tough, no-nonsense all-cleansing martial law. This is a solution that will not be palatable to any politician, as such it behoves them to begin the dialogue to come to grips in a hurry with the burgeoning problems of this country.

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