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Senator Pressler and his Amendment

US Senator Larry Pressler is to fly to Pakistan today from New Delhi on the second stage of an 11-day South Asia tour. Senator Pressler is the author of the Pressler Amendment in US Congress, under which all US Aid to Pakistan has been cut off because of US concerns that Pakistan’s development of nuclear potential may have crossed a fail-safe military threshold. His stopover in India was meant to gauge Indian reaction at the highest level to the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which the Indians, having already exploded a bomb as far back as 1974, are refusing to sign.

Senator Pressler’s itinerary is well chosen. At present India is the only confirmed nuclear power in the South Asian sub-continent, Pakistan’s intentions are suspect to the US because evidence collected by western intelligence agencies precludes the US President from issuing certification that will give Pakistan a clean bill of health. Senator Pressler’s visit to Sri Lanka, a once-upon-a-time paradise turned into hell-on-Earth by the machinations of Indian Research and Intelligence Wing (RAW) and subsequent partial occupation by the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF), should be an eye-opener as to why the smaller nations on India’s periphery are ready to “eat grass” to provide for means of self-defence.

More is suspected than is known about Pakistan’s nuclear programme, in the presence of the known Indian capacity to develop nuclear weapons and their advanced medium/long-range missile programme, the nation’s motivation for self-defence is justified and has broad support of the masses inspite of the knowledge of disastrous consequences ensuing the stoppage of US economic and military aid. The American psyche is programmed towards fair play and a natural affiliation with the underdog. Pakistan’s oft repeated willingness to sign the NPT, if India also agrees to do so the same, shows good faith while India’s refusal to do so on grounds of false principles and flimsy excuses shows bad faith. In the collapse of communism, the US priority concern for 50 years has drastically changed to other concerns but a responsible presentation to the US Senator will certainly show that India had consistently pursued Anti-American policies for over four decades in support of the defunct Soviet Union. Though the Indians backed a loser, US foreign policy has to take into account India’s size and geo-political position. Pakistan backed the US over four decades inspite of adverse diplomatic consequences in the Third World. The future US relationship with India should not discriminate against a tested friend who stood side by side in the free world’s last (and successful) stand against the ambition of Communism (in Afghanistan).

From a multi-polar world, we have progressed to a bipolar scenario and ultimately to a unipolar situation. As much as USA found that its isolationist policies after World War I did not serve it well, Pakistan being a Third World country cannot afford to turn its back on the only remaining Superpower in the world. The Gulf War has shown that advanced state-of-the-art weapons have a lethal tendency to turn the tide of battle in favour of smaller, better armed forces. The US has repeatedly shown considerable interest in providing Pakistan with the equivalent military parity in terms of sophisticated arms and equipment to overcome India’s conventional military superiority and offset the nuclear advantage, why not call this bluff? If the US can guarantee a nuclear umbrella as well as and the wherewithal to stem any Indian adventure, maybe the time has come to have a pragmatic approach to the nuclear option.

Above all, the media factor of India’s refusal to sign the NPT must be turned to our benefit. Let the Pressler Amendment be applied to India while we go down the route of nuclear non-proliferation. We can turn the situation to our advantage provided we roll with the punch and do not get ourselves boxed into a corner on emotional grounds alone. Critical military spares vital to our defence needs are currently held up while we muddle through a confused debate on available policy options. We cannot afford to lose out on conventional military parity with India, if we delay in our decision we will find ourselves out in the cold and up the creek without a paddle.

To the extent of explaining our viewpoint, Senator Pressler’s visit will be more than welcome, let us force-multiply the effect by making pragmatic choices that will put the ball firmly in the US court. After all, nuclear potential has two aspects, knowledge and material. Material has been unsuccessfully denied to us in the past and nobody can take our knowledge away. We can always return to the nuclear option if promises made to us are found to be false.

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