Compromise, not confrontation
South Asia has been a political and military battleground for over four decades, with India we have fought three wars and numerous battles to correct geo-political anomalies. If history be the judge of current events, we are well on course to a “Fourth Round”. While the conduct of the war may or may not follow Ravi Rikhye’s script, the result is most likely to be a bloody stalemate. As is usual during all conflicts, military casualties will be considerable but the recent examples of total warfare are witness to the fact that civilian dead and injured may outnumber the men in uniform. While casualties in any form are unacceptable, the economic damage inflicted will set the two countries back many decades. Millions of people live below the poverty line in South Asia, this would add injury to their existing misery. In any case, the only war we should be engaging is an all out assault to effect amelioration of the economic condition of the poverty-stricken masses.
India is a vast military power with a large standing army, the third largest blue-water navy in the world and overwhelming numbers in an Air Force having the latest aircraft and equipment from both sides of the cold war fence. Given a chastening experience at the hands of China during a short-lived war with them in 1962, it has well-equipped mountain divisions. The Russian T-72s in its tank inventory gives its armoured divisions extra teeth. Over the last decade, three important events have offset the great numerical and material preponderance of the Indian Armed Forces vis-a-vis Pakistan. The Khalistan movement has deprived India of its solid dependence on the Sikh backbone for its military, the gunboat diplomacy misadventure in Sri Lanka resulting in the mauling at the hands of the LTTE has had its debilitating effect on morale and material, while the insurgency in Kashmir and Khalistan (Indian Punjab) has tied down large numbers of troops in keeping the Lines of Communication (L of Cs) open. On the other hand, the Pakistan Armed Forces have been qualitatively reequipped during the 80s decade, managing to shed off, in the last three years, the adverse public image created by the elongation of Martial Law. With normal transition in the upper-military hierarchy according to a set time period restored, a determined, self-confident and well motivated Pakistan Armed Forces should be able to inflict much more damage than it receives. This is not stated out of misplaced bravado or out of the bluster of yesteryear but through the knowledge that the professionalism and dedication of our soldiers, sailors and airmen has been enhanced and fortified during the last three years by the bulwark of democratic rule.
Given this no-win scenario, will the Indian military planners also conclude that future wars with Pakistan are unwinnable or are they likely to gamble? Any level-headed professional would come to the obvious conclusion that war would be futile but then again one must take into account the incessant goading because of the fanaticism of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). BJP has an unabashed penchant for proclaiming the domination of the Hindu religion not only within South Asia but beyond, reinforced by the induction of quite a number of ex-servicemen in its ranks in-built with an age-old obsession with Indian hegemony. It is no surprise that the Pakistan Armed Forces are perceived as a major stumbling block to their vision of a return to their “historical boundaries”. These men of influence are bound to prejudice the thinking of even the most progressive of the Indian military elite. The deteriorating internal security situation on the western borders with Pakistan can only add to their fears and suspicions, with commensurate hardening of positions. One need not be clairvoyant to predict that they may conclude that war is the only option to divert international opinion and reduce internal pressure. This may be reinforced by a perception that Pakistan is now bereft of its traditional allies, the US because of the changing geo-political circumstances and China because of its internal pre-occupations. A strong government in India could have withstood such temptation, a weak government like the present one is susceptible to varying pressures. As time goes along, VP Singh’s Janata Dal (mostly old Congress-ites turned off by the Nehru/Gandhi family all-pervasive monopoly) is showing a growing inclination of returning to the Congress fold, if nothing else it will support Congress in Parliament so as to minimise the BJP potential for blackmailing the Indian nation on sensitive issues.
The sorry state of nationalism running amok in Eastern Europe should ring alarm bells in South Asia. The disintegration of the USSR is now a legal formality and is proceeding according to a measured pace, luckily for the whole world the lurking maelstrom, which would have resulted in bloody chaos and confusion, has been stemmed. Tito’s once proud nation of Yugoslavia is haemorrhaging badly in a bloody internecine conflict between the nationalities, the age old enmity between Serbs and Croats coming to the surface. Europe’s proud boast of civilized behaviour among its inhabitants has been badly mauled by the savagery witnessed in the civil war, the Czechs and Slovaks are next in line to separate themselves, one hopes that the parting in Czechoslovakia will not also brutalize description. Europe’s borders tend to change every fifty years or so, more changes are expected in the coming years. If this can happen in Europe where literacy rate is much higher than in South Asia, what can one expect in an area with the force-multiple effect of endemic ethnic and religious differences that we inherently have? We already live on a thin line where sensitivity is extremely high.
Millions and millions of people in the South Asian sub-continent live below the poverty line, those in this category in India exceed the combined population of the other South Asian Sub-Continent. Our first needs are social and economic, we must strive together to ensure that the basic needs of the masses, food, potable water, shelter, clothing, education, transportation, employment, etc are met. This cannot be done if we are faced with constant tension within the sub-continent and diversion of badly needed funds for armaments. We need to reduce animosity by falling back on compromise leading to lasting solutions, agreements which do not spell out victory or defeat for either side, in which all factions go away from the negotiating table feeling that they have got as much as they have given away. Those who have not seen the horrific slaughter and damage of war make excellent drawing-room hawks, in the end those who can conquer fear to ensure peace have the greater courage.
The immediate (and lasting) point of contention is Kashmir. Pakistan has historical and logical rights to Kashmir, the Indians feel the same way. At this time, the Kashmiri people have risen in revolt after four decades of subjugation, as the continuing violence has shown, no quarter is being given by either side. Most important of all, the Indians have not been able to suppress this revolt. While there must be a logical desire in AK and Pakistan to give succour to the militants across the border, the indigenous nature of the revolt has ensured that it has its own dynamics, leaving no room for remote control of the insurrection. The proliferation of Pakistan flags in Srinagar on Pakistan’s Independence Day has shown that there is a continuing determination among the people to accede to Pakistan despite violent Indian repression. However, there are some militant factions who want total independence without the tutelage of either India or Pakistan. With the Afghan war dying down, it is quite possible that the Mujahideen may be drawn into this conflict to free the Kashmiris from Indian Occupation. Any child can predict that this will ultimately escalate into a full fledged war between Pakistan and India, the only outcome being severe economic devastation and dislocation thereafter.
The time has come to face reality and realise that confrontation must be replaced by compromise. Nothing symbolises the stupidity of conflict presently than the deadly daily battles in forgotten Siachen, the weather and conditions extracting a greater human and psychological toll than the carnage of war on the roof of the world. Some formula must be evoked out where the highest priority must be given to the will of the people of Kashmir, in preference to the rights of Pakistan or India, but not in exclusion of either. The peoples of South Asia need pragmatic visionaries, leaders who recognize that the enormity of the fact that disintegration brought by nationalism can wreck havoc in South Asia. Pakistan may have sporadic separatist tendencies, the Indians have a whole pack of nationalities straining away at the leash through the length and breadth of the vast country. A war with Pakistan would act as a catalyst to bring the whole pack of cards tumbling down.
Sometimes extremely complex problems can be solved by very simple adjudication. The problem is that extremists tend to hack away at the flanks of any negotiated solutions, labelling it as appeasement and surrender. Leaders of vision and courage who have the interests of their people and country at heart will always take the rocky road to compromise and peace, even to the peril of their lives.
Did you enjoy this post? Why not leave a comment below and continue the conversation, or subscribe to my feed and get articles like this delivered automatically to your feed reader.
Comments
No comments yet.
Leave a comment