A region of economic opportunities
With the loosening of the iron grip of communism in the Soviet Union, the former Soviet Republics have started asserting their rights, some have even resorted to a unilateral declaration of independence (UDI). Gorbachev has played a masterly role after his comeback in slowing the process of total disintegration of the USSR, a chaotic collapse would have led (Yugoslavia-like) to internecine conflict and anarchy. The way the nuclear weapons are dispersed, we could have had Apocalypse now! All inter-state relations are normally bound together by an economic fabric, the new States Treaty annunciated by Gorbachev and Yeltsin stresses economic union among the Republics as the cardinal principle of association with each other, leaving open the possibility of the right of secession. The Baltic Republics, already recognized as independent entities by the Soviet Union, have been assured of some form of economic association with the EEC countries. The Republics of Russia and the Ukraine are economically viable to a great extent, having established industrial development to go with their reserves of raw material and food resources. Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan may be in a weaker economic position but the worst affected are the 50 million people inhabiting the 1.55 million square miles of Kazakhastan and the four Central Asian Republics of Turkmenia, Uzbekistan, Tadzhikistan and Kirghizia.
Neglected economically during the period of communist rule, these Asian entities will find themselves on the tail-end of any food and/or economic assistance to the Soviet Union. One may go so far as to suggest that only token allocations will find its way to these economically ravaged but resource-rich areas. At the short end of the economic stick, the affected Republics will look south to their historical kinships and traditional trade routes for economic succour. To countries such as Iran, Pakistan, Turkey of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO), this would mean a great economic boom, as these Republics draw on our raw material, food resources, consumer products, manufacturing base, services industry and skilled/unskilled manpower. Afghanistan stands to benefit as the staging area/transit point to Kazakhastan and Central Asia. At this time Turkey is at a particular crossroads because of its request for membership of the EEC, in effect looking for a European rather than an Asian future while Afghanistan can only benefit when the civil war is settled, certainly not while Najibullah remains in power. If Turkey takes a positive decision to turn back to Asia, it stands to benefit because of its great economic infrastructure while the rehabilitation of devastated Afghanistan can be swiftly possible with the restoration of its historical crossroads location.
The first real inter-action between Central Asia, Iran and the area now comprising Pakistan came with the 20 or so raids conducted by Mahmud of Ghazni against North India in the 11th Century, mainly for plunder rather than for conquest. With the decline of the Ghaznavis at the hands of the Ghauris and a power play between the Ghauris, Karakitai Turks, the Seljug Turks and the Khorazm-Shahs for control of Central Asia, the presence and relationships in the region became more lasting. This was further accentuated by the Mongol invasions during the reign of Allaudin Khilji into Northern India, in 1303 the Mongols actually invested Delhi before being ultimately repulsed by Allaudin. In 1398 the ruler of Transoxania (now in Uzbekistan), Taimur invaded India, but again to plunder, without ambition to conquer and rule. The fifth descendant of Taimur (through his father) and the fourteenth descendant of Changez Khan (through his mother), Babur became the Boy-King of Transoxania on the death of his father in 1494 at the age of 11 but lost his kingdom soon after. Babur passed through 20 years of adversity before ultimately giving up the struggle for recovering his ancestral domain. Invited by the Afghan rebels of the Lodhi Empire, Daulat Khan and Alam Khan, Babur turned his attention to India, starting a long period of Moghul rule after defeating Ibrahim Lodhi at Panipat in 1526. The historical trade route between East and West, North and South of the then known world passed through the triangle comprising the confluence of the modern boundaries of Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Czar Peter the Great’s reign was filled with military initiatives to open up sea outlets for Russia, towards the Baltic Sea to the West, the Sea of Azov and Caspian Sea to the South West and the ultimate dream of reaching the warm waters of the Arabian Sea to the South. Three centuries later, the Russians came close to fulfilling that dream in their invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, Gwadar and Pasni remained only a few hundred miles away. While today we recognize that the disintegration of the Soviet Union came about because Glasnost (openness) raised the aspirations of the Soviet people and Perestroika (economic reforms) could not keep pace, the Mujahideen stand against Soviet forces in Afghanistan needs mention as communism was checked at its psychological high-point and found to have feet of clay. The bigger they are, the harder they fall! With unstinting support from Pakistan as a front line State, aided by infusion of arms and money from USA, Saudi Arabia and other friendly countries, the vaunted Soviet military machine was fought to a standstill by the Mujahideen. Five years into the war, the Afghan rebel had replaced his Lee Enfield with the shoulder-fired Stinger, with devastating results against Soviet Air power, particularly helicopter gunships. Without that fourth-dimensional advantage, with the body count rising, civilian morale back home proportionately plummeting, Afghanistan became another unwinable Vietnam-like Asian mainland war. With the Soviet Union military found vulnerable, the dreams of a bloc of Muslim Central Asia suddenly started filling the landscape. Frankly, at that time this was sheer fantasy, no one could ever predict the self-destruction Gorbachev would inflict upon the Soviet Union by putting Glasnost (openness) ahead of Perestroika (economic reforms). The rest is history, culminating in the force-multiplying of the process of disintegration as a reaction to the blundering conservative coup attempt in August 1991, the swing of the pendulum being greater than anyone could ever imagine.
Our historical affinities with Kazakhastan and Central Asian Republics, coupled with meagre economic assistance expected, may lead to solidifying of the dreams of yesterday into the reality of an economic union. One hopes that we may not be so stupid as to attempt for trying to impose a Federal or Confederal status, it would be fatal for any proposed arrangement if any of the Republics feel their sovereignty being threatened. The Republics must feel that their individual nationalities and identities will remain independent. Before thinking about expanding the Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO) to include Afghanistan, the prime requisite is that peace must be restored to that country.
The largest Republic in the region area-wise is Kazakhastan, having a population of 16.7 million with about 6.680 million Kazakhs, 6.346 million Russians, about a million Germans and almost an equal amount of Ukrainians. The largest Central Asian Republic population-wise is Uzbekistan with about 20.30 million people with more than 14.5 million Uzbeks among them, about 1.62 million Russians and a million each of Tadzhiks and Kazakhs. Tadzikhistan has a population of 5.3 million, 3.29 million Tadzhiks among them, 50,000 each of Tartars, Kazakhs and Ukrainians. 2.30 million Kirghiz reside in Kirghizia out of a population of 4.40 million with about one million Russians, about half a million Uzbeks and about 100,000-120,000 each of Ukrainians and Germans. In Turkmenia, there are 2.50 million Turkmen out of a population of 3.60 million with about 360,000 Russians, about 300,000 Uzbeks, 100,000 Kazakhs and 36,000 Ukrainians. Out of a population of 50.3 million in this region, there are about 8.74 million Kazakhs, 15.3 million Uzbeks, 10.16 million Russians, 4.29 million Tadzhiks, 2.30 million Kirghiz, 2.50 Turkmen, 1.20 million Ukrainians and 1.12 million Germans. A major part of the population is Muslim.
In such a diverse human melting point, it would be singularly counter-productive to think of anything but economic affiliation based on the historical land trade routes North and South through Iran to Iranian and Pakistan ports and through Afghanistan, routing through Kandahar through to Quetta and through Jalalabad to Peshawar and onto the ports of Pakistan, both for exports and imports. The coastline of Pakistan will become the warm water staging post for the whole region serving at least seven of the nine independent countries in the envisaged economic arrangement. The East-West routes need also to be used for inter-trade between the affiliated countries. It may be possible to have a favourable two-way trade with Mongolia and China’s Sinkiang Province, expanding on the present Border trade with Pakistan. The Bazaars of Peshawar, full of Russian and Central Asian products, are witness to the fact that natural inter-regional trade went on in spite of the brutal Afghan conflict.
The visions of leaders in Pakistan in the 80s was taken to be coloured because of their track record within the country vis-a-vis democracy, we tended in reaction to belittle their aspirations about eventual association with Central Asia. In seeking more than economic integration, their perception may have been seriously flawed, the fact remains that an association for economic interests is very feasible and now a distinct possibility. Much work is necessary before we begin to reap the benefits of such an envisaged arrangement, knowing that it will contribute tremendously to the economic emancipation of the masses of this region. Pakistan needs to do a lot of homework in this regard, including the improvement of an infrastructure facilities like roads, railways and the building of new ports to cater for transit trade. We must remember that economic emancipation is the best anti-dote for conflict brought about by ethnic and religious diversity. To the poverty-stricken millions of people of this region, economic cooperation should replace the possibility of conflict. The time is ripe and the opportunity is there, do we have the courage to go for the right course?
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