Bangladesh elections
Elections in Bangladesh may not have produced a clear majority among the 298 seats at stake for Parliament, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) with 140 seats of the 294 so far declared is in the driver’s seat as far as making the next Government goes. In an election touted as the most fair in its history of two decades, the BNP trounced its main rival, Awami League (AL) which, despite open-ended Indian support, morally and materially, got a relatively modest 83 seats. Gen Ershad’s Jatiyo Party (JP) was a distant third with 37 seats while Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) surprised no one with its relatively good (for JI) showing of 17 seats, the rest being with Independents or one or two seat parties.
Of the 140 seats gained by BNP, almost 50 were in the area comprising the old Dhaka Division, the AL was routed in its supposed stronghold of urban areas. Hasina Wajed, Sheikh Mujib’s daughter, and head of AL, lost both her bids for seats in Dhaka City, though she won in her own home district of Faridpur. The head of BNP, Begum Khaleda Zia, widow of late Gen Ziaur Rehman, won all five seats that she contested, through the length and breadth of the country from Chittagong to Bogra, thereby bolstering her claims of the BNP’s truly national image (and her possible candidacy for President). Gen Ershad, former President of Bangladesh, now under house arrest, won all five of the seats he contested under the JP ticket in his home district of Rangpur. Almost all the leaders of JP who contested and won are still in jail and could not campaign, in the circumstances a creditable achievement which highlighted the fair nature of the elections. Perhaps the most surprising (and satisfying) defeat was of AL’s so-called “Tiger” Kader Siddiqui, infamous for many cruelties inflicted in 1971 and recently returned from self-imposed exile in India to an orchestrated Indian-inspired welcome in Bangladesh. That he was humiliated in his supposed stronghold, despite the vocal and logistical Indian support for him, is a great setback for India, psychologically he represented the pro-Indian bias of the AL.
BNP’s victory has been possible not because of Begum Zia’s charisma but because the Bangladeshi voter placed a premium on (1) the known honesty that symbolized late Gen Zia and (2) independence from the machinations of India that the AL represents. The Bangladeshi voter has shown great sophistication, relatively unencumbered by the straitjacket of race, caste and Baradari that bedevil Indian and Pakistani politics to a great extent, this has been the true test of the democratic will in the South Asian sub-continent. Since the Hindu vote (about 12% of the voting population) would have gone solidly for the pro-India Awami League and Jamaat-i-Islami got 17 seats, religion has played a part of sorts, particularly in the winning of at least 40 seats for AL, nearly half of the AL’s final tally.
During the last days of the campaign Hasina Wajed of AL belatedly recognized the animosity towards India among the Bangladeshis, who feared that her reign would lead to acceptance of Indian hegemony as was totally pervasive during her late father’s rule. Despite the late change of tone and content of her speeches to a proforma anti-Indian one, one would have been foolish to expect the knowledgeable Bangladeshi voter to vote otherwise, the average Bangladeshi is a very avid nationalist.
As expected Gen Ershad’s JP did not figure among the first two parties, it would be expected that given the handicaps most of its supporters would have crossed over to its ideological twin, BNP, to take BNP over the top in many crucial seats, the surprise is that JP’s hard core rural support did remain to give it a bloc of 37 seats. Despite the corruption image, this vote reflects Gen Ershad’s efforts in the rural areas and emphasizes that the mass movement that brought him down was basically urban-based. It is also a reflection of the fact that his party could have achieved a much better showing if he had opted to step down much earlier before the student-led movement against him hardened and he found himself in his present predicament. As it is, he now has emerged as still remaining a potent force in Bangladeshi politics. It will be no surprise if he comes out a close second in the Presidential election to be, that is if he is allowed to contest, given that the corruption charges against him are more or less open and shut.
BNP’s Khaleda Zia has come to the top after a long and hard struggle, her potential has been constantly underestimated as the final tally of votes have shown. Her husband, the late Gen Ziaur Rahman, was one of the most honest leaders that the world has ever known, that this reputation was achieved as a Third World entity gives him that much more credit. He was no intellectual giant and was hamstrung to an extent by very corrupt senior leaders among his party but his clean image has persevered to help his widow. Khaleda Zia has benefited by the desertion of most of the corrupt few to greener pastures, to that extent she does not come to the government encumbered by excess baggage. Gen Zia’s known personal honesty contrasted with this aberration of a corrupt coterie among the leadership cadre, Khaleda Zia has to ensure that these special bees stay away from power. She may not have a clear majority but given AL’s relatively poor showing, she has a mandate of sorts to give democracy and the BNP’s stated manifesto a solid chance in Bangladesh. Bangladesh’s economic problems put it in a very precarious state financially, unless strong steps are taken to contain this economic erosion, particularly in the present world economic climate, the over-populated country could well fit Kissinger’s so-called international basket-case. With neighbour India aggrieved of sorts, Ms Khaleda Zia is likely to have her hands full with extraneous pressures being applied. Late Gen Zia’s Government had excellent relations with Pakistan, Gen Ershad continued with the same policies, even enhanced the closeness. The anti-Indian vote that she has benefited from may not be exactly pro-Pakistan, it should still be extremely satisfying for Pakistan that it was anti-Indian and the excellent mutual relations will likely to continue.
The last word must be reserved for President Shahabuddin and his Caretaker Council of Ministers, none of whom stood for elections, thereby retaining their neutrality and thus ensuring a fair election. They are to be commended but not more than the eulogies which must be reserved for Lt Gen Nuruddin, the Bangladeshi COAS, who, in a display of solid professionalism and with strong support from the Bangladesh Army’s rank and file, opted to go the General Mirza Aslam Beg-route and keep the Bangladeshi Army out of politics, thus setting a healthy precedent for Bangladesh’s future. If anything, late Gen Zia was exceedingly popular among the Bangladeshi Armed Forces, his honesty made him an icon of sorts, as such the election results (and that the elections were honestly and fairly conducted) must have been doubly satisfying to the Bangladeshi uniformed rank and file, an important consideration in a Third World country.
Khaleda Zia thus comes to power with a broad consensus of civilian and military goodwill, to live upto her late husband’s reputation she will have her hands full. All these who sincerely desire the Islamic nation of Bangladesh to prosper will wish her well.
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