• Home
• Video
• Books by Ikram Sehgal
• About

Iraq makes its move: A clear and present danger

“Clear and Present Danger” is the title used by Tom Clancy for his techno-thriller about Colombia and drug trafficking, actually it is a phrase borrowed from an eminent judge of the United States Supreme Court, Oliver Wendell Holmes, Jr. With its unprovoked and swift military takeover of Kuwait, Iraq’s display of military muscle for its economic and hegemonistic ambitions indicates a clear and present danger to regional and world peace. Given that Kuwait had bankrolled Iraq upto US$ 15 billion in grants and easy credits in its war against Iran, this is the stuff of rank ingratitude and outright greed. With the Iraqi track record what it is since the Baath Party first came to power three decades or so ago, the move was not entirely unexpected, only the timing was a surprise, the pretext, stealing of oil by Kuwait was as believable as the “attack” on Germany by Poland, providing for the “reason” for swift German retaliation, net result World War II.

While oil money built up Iran in the 60s and 70s, the presence of a strong Iran frustrated Iraq (including an earlier aborted threat to Kuwait in the early 60s). Iraq has never been able to hide its covetous greed for the oil-rich adjacent regions, calculating that the oil wealth would give it the economic latitude to press forward its Pan-Arabism a la Iraqana, the fundamental premise of the Iraqi Baathists, no matter that the “Brothers” in Syria under Hafez Al Assad were estranged. Forced to come to terms with Iran over the Shatt Al Arab dispute, the Iraqis took advantage of the Shah’s exit to repudiate the treaty. With Iran in turmoil and the Iranian Armed Forces in disarray, Iraq treacherously tried to annex the oil-rich Iranian Khuzestan Province in a swift military offensive that initially made a spectacular headway. Despite grievous losses in men and material magnified by the almost utter decimation of the Iranian Officer Corps during the Iranian Revolution, Iran finally consolidated and with deep Islamic fervour and growing nationalism managed to beat the Iraqis back till they had them under their mercy having captured the strategic Fao Peninsula and reached the outskirts of Iraq’s only port city, Basra. With Iraq on the verge of outright defeat, the rich Arab nations (Kuwait among them) pitched in with billions of petro-dollars in outright grants and easy credits to shore up Iraq. With the western nations apprehensive about Iran’s Islamic fundamentalism under Ayatollah Khomeini, Iran was isolated diplomatically and quarantined economically, starving it of weapons and badly needed spares whereas Iraq was the recipient of all possible help from all possible quarter.  Iran was then subjected to horrifying attacks by Iraq using chemical weapons, the western nations made a proforma protest but looked the other side. Virtually defenceless against chemical warfare, impoverished economically, with grievous losses in manpower and left with scarce weaponry and equipment, Iran finally agreed to a ceasefire, it still persists. One incident is starkly indicative of Iraqi ruthlessness, the aerial attack on USS STARK in the Persian Gulf resulting in the deaths of many US sailors, surprisingly in its total pre-occupation with its “inveterate enemy” Ayatollah Khomeini, the US turned the other cheek, this was a dangerous precedent to give to a regime which only respects force. With Iran neutralized for the time being it was only a matter of time before Iraq turned to the beckoning oil-fields in the rich adjacent regions. With Iraqi attempts at creating a nuclear arsenal and delivery weapons thereof as well as the threat of a chemical attack on Israel, the world did wake up to the portents of a new threat but lulled themselves into thinking that at most it would be directed against Israel who were quite capable in defending themselves.

With the invasion of Kuwait, Iraq has with one stroke and in the space of a few hours, emerged as the greatest threat to peace in the region and the world for some time. With Kuwait’s oil filling its coffers, it has greater oil (and thus economic) power than the rest of OPEC combined. There may not be as great affinity in Pakistan for the Kuwaiti royal family as for the Saudi and UAE royal houses but the subsequent potential Iraqi targets, Saudi Arabian and UAE are very much crucial to Pakistan’s own integrity and sovereignty. Iraq’s offer to deplore the fact if India (a friend) ever invaded Pakistan (a brother) in the face of known Indian ruthlessness in Kashmir is indicative of Iraqi identification more with Indian secular interests than with Muslim aspirations. Iraq’s move into the Persian Gulf will be welcomed by India which sees the rulers of Saudi Arabia, Iran and UAE inimical to Indian interests. In fact had it not been for Pakistan as a stumbling block, Indians would have made their move against the Persian Gulf sometime ago, their influence among the population is already tremendous, just read “Khaleej Times” and “Gulf News” for a few days! Knowing that Iraq is far from becoming a maritime power, India would be quite content at this time to let Iraq hold sway over the region to the exclusion of Iran, one of Pakistan’s strong backers. As a situation this should not be acceptable to Pakistan.

The World Powers (USSR included) will have to sort out Iraq if they do not want to have the fallout of Munich-like appeasement repeated. This will probably take the form of an economic boycott followed by some interdiction to remove Saddam Hussein. To contain the Iraqis in this region from further adventures the US must come to an immediate understanding with Iran, Pakistan must play a salutary mediating role, didn’t we do so between US and China? Pakistan’s own position as a moderating force in this region has now to be emphasized. While we may be threatened by India at this time, we must not be averse to sending troops immediately to Saudi Arabia and the UAE to protect their independence and integrity, their continued existence as sovereign nations is vital to us, there is also the matter of gratitude for their unstinting support, whenever it was needed by us. We must also mediate to resolve the outstanding issues between Saudi Arabia and Iran. There is a dangerous situation created in the region due to the uncalled for Iraqi adventure, the factual expression of our swift and total support to Saudi Arabia, Iran and UAE is most necessary immediately, both to shore up their confidence and to indicate our resolve to Iraq. When Saddam Hussein remained within his own borders, his excesses may not have been acceptable but they were bearable, his foray outside his frontiers becomes a threat to peace in the short run, to our own existence in the long run. Hitler became headier with each annexation in Europe, directly leading to the fail-safe point in Poland which resulted in World War II. India has already been flexing its muscles, despite its Sri Lanka adventure being ill-fated, India’s maritime ambitions are well-known. Putting of Iraq it in its place should have a sobering effect on other adventurers in the South Asian Region. Failure to stand up now and be counted will create trouble, what finally happens in Kuwait may be in the future, to those familiar with history the anti-dote action that the world takes will be the precedent for the future. To those who keep on harping about reduced defence spending, Kuwait should serve as an object lesson.

Did you enjoy this post? Why not leave a comment below and continue the conversation, or subscribe to my feed and get articles like this delivered automatically to your feed reader.