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Option and Kashmir

A moment comes in the life of a nation when logic fails at the altar of emotions, who was it who once said, to be logical is not to be always right. Logic is the precursor of statesmanship, normally an excellent attribute, statesmanship can degenerate into hypocrisy if it fails to take note of (or deliberately ignores) the evolving feelings of the masses. At this time, the brutal bloodletting by Indian Occupation Forces in Held Kashmir should have more than tested the patience and frustration of even the most cold-blooded of leaders, that the masses have had their sensitivities universally injured has been more than aptly displayed in the streets. Our political leaders have extremely sensitive barometers to the aspirations of the people, Ms Benazir has shown that by moving forcefully on a broad political front that there is no deliberate attempt at filibustering and that if there is such an impression it is false. It takes time but the people have become sophisticated enough to discern reality from make-believe. However the PM should let down her seemingly icy control, by not giving free rein to her emotions the danger lies in losing credibility with the masses, an act of omission in an emotional country, provoking an internal dissent that can be exceedingly fatal for her ascendant political graph.

The valley of Kashmir is aflame, brutality horribly described by the endless casualty figures routinely being inflicted with sadistic glee (almost 250 dead, 650 injured in the past 6 weeks), no one can ever believe that our reply is going to be confined to glib rhetoric? Such a ploy would be unforgivable falsehood, sheer hypocrisy, the stretching of credibility beyond skeptical parameters. The period for liberal debate is past, lip-service is for the birds, it is time now to openly discuss one’s options and get on with taking some sort of action. Being the Head of a political Government Ms Benazir has to give broad policy decisions and directives, to act positively and become the Mistress of the game. No leader can afford to sit back and react to the evolving situation, entrapped in a vortex of Indian creation of a one-sided destructive scenario. That is not the Benazir-way, come to think of it, that was not the Zulfikar Ali Bhutto-way either.

The people of Kashmir have risen en masse for the first time after 42 long years, the Indians had become so complacent in suppressing them they were not prepared for the uprising and thus failed to recognize that the Kashmiris have the right as much as any other people to aspire to freedom. Paradoxically it seems that the essence of so-called democracy in the world’s largest example is to have different definitions of democracy in different regions, suited to the genius of the people in the area. As the protests multiply the statistics of dead and injured increases directly proportionate to the Indian violence, the Kashmiris are fighting back inflicting 65 dead and 75 injured on the Indians who are flying in more and more troops daily, Kashmir which was an armed camp in the best of circumstances, is now one vast POW cage. The existing Indian 15 and 16 Corps have been reinforced by two infantry divisions, elements of the Para Brigade from Agra, 8 BSF Battalions, etc and the reinforcements are continuing. Despite severe provocations, the people of Azad Kashmir and Pakistan have not yet tested the Line of Actual Control (or the UN Ceasefire Line as it is better known). As the crackdown intensifies, the level of violence will escalate and as hundreds die, the cycle of blood will have taken a life (and death) of its own. The level of brutality may be able to suppress the revolt in a welter of blood, the Indians cannot eradicate the uprising unless Pakistan abandons the Kashmiris to their fate.

The first option, call it OPTION A, is to go down the route of a negotiated approach, in the face of continuing Indian obduracy turning the other cheek will be a class high wire act. This option suits the “Peace at any Cost” Brigade, at the moment they seem to be succeeding quite well. Basically this involves bilateral negotiations or one through mutually acceptable international intermediaries. This argument pre-supposes that India agrees that Kashmir is a dispute requiring settlement between Pakistan and India, amicably through dialogue, it pre-supposes that India will enter into discussions, ready for some compromise to their basic position in the interest of peace and harmony for their peoples and the region, indeed for the world. This is a futile posture in the face of the known Indian stance, that Kashmir is not a subject of dispute between Pakistan and India. The Kashmiri people have an on-going dispute with India for the last 42 years, they simply do not want to be ruled over or occupied by them, therefore the grievance leading to the massive uprising. There is of course the little matter of a UN monitored Plebiscite that India agreed to but has now consigned to history as a non-issue. The dispute may be directly between the Indian Occupation Forces and the Kashmir resistance to that repressive rule there is also the small fact of millions of Kashmiri refugees living in Pakistan and using Pakistani passports for international travel. What cannot be disputed is that Kashmir is not a part of India and never was. Option A is basically appeasement of many sorts, mostly as a sop to international opinion, as Munich has shown appeasement has never satisfied international predator nations. In South Asia, India accurately fits this description, in fact in the whole of the world there is no country except India that, except for certain frontier adjustment aspirations in some stray cases, covets the territories of their neighbours or seeks to dominate them by force. While Indian propaganda belies this notion, every country of South Asia has felt the Indian teeth, the Indian image of a democracy devoted to regional and international peace and harmony is a fairy tale, light years away from the actual fact of attempting regional hegemony. As regards the negotiating table is concerned, late Field Marshal Ayub Khan opted for the gentleman’s route in 1962 (negotiations at the behest of western powers), trying not to take advantage of India’s weakness during the Sino-Indian conflict, as soon as the Indians felt secure they just walked out leaving Pakistan high and dry so that 28 years later we are still biting our nails back at Square ONE. Our elected government should avoid getting into a sucker trap. For the sake of international norms, negotiations may be an excellent idea but dealing with the Indians across the negotiating table is a non-starter in any sense of the word because of known Indian obduracy. One should plan to do it anyway, one should not expect much from it.

OPTION B is to support the Kashmir freedom fighters inside Kashmir (1) directly and/or (2) indirectly, (a) covertly and/or (b) openly, i.e. a number of possibilities enshrined within ONE broad-based option. This may lead to war as any of the permutations or combinations of the aforesaid will not be taken kindly by Indians who are already shouting themselves hoarse even before we have begun to think about it. That is an eventuality with which we have to live (and maybe die) with. At this time there must be a low-level covert support of no consequence for the Kashmiris inside Held Territory, going on for the last 40 years, but this type of support is neither here nor there as it does not take into account the present emerging realities, brute military force being applied at will on a civilian population with meagre means available to the Kashmiris to defend themselves against this cruel repression. One has a number of credible alternative choices, the most potent being a combination of a covert direct and an open direct support. The covert direct support could be in the form of a constant inflow of money, arms and other related supplies while the open direct support would entail training of volunteers (from Pakistan, Iran, Afghanistan and other Muslim countries) to go across the line of Actual Control and sustain this movement by conducting guerilla warfare in both the urban and rural areas. In this we must recognize the immediate support of the Iranians in word and deed, while hoping to God and high heaven that the visit of a Defence Ministry delegation to Iraq has not upset them. We badly need Iranian moral and material support, after their open hearted material and moral support they must be astonished at this ill-advised visit. The Iranian support to us is not surprising. Can anyone with the slightest iota of feeling really sit back and callously see 50 or a 100 people being butchered every alternate day in Srinagar? What about the Indian machinations through their paid recalcitrants all over South Asia? The one-time paradise of Sri Lanka has been turned into a virtual hell-hole by the brutalizing grace of the Indian Research and Analytical Wing. RAW established over a 100 training camps in Tamil Nadu for Tamil militants before sending them into Sri Lanka to spread terror and destruction. RAW symbolises Indian callousness, they must be paid back in kind, that is the only language the Indians understand.

The last option or OPTION C is to prepare for war. One has to compare the enemy’s capability to wage war against ours in terms of men and material and the willingness/motivation to fight. India has an overall 3 to 1 men and material decided advantage over us, a favourable attack ratio. Our strength lies in the fact that we do not have to initiate offensive action, in the event of escalating circumstances we may have to defend ourselves against an all-out Indian attack across the international borders to relieve the internal pressure on Kashmir and Khalistan. India will have for offensive operations at best the services of 15 or so odd divisions held in reserve. After analysing the various Indian options the likely Indian scenario would probably be to emulate Brass Tacks i.e earmark 8-9 divisions in the Rajasthan Sector against Bahawalpur, Sadiqabad, Rahimyar Khan areas while earmarking 3-4 such formations on the Barmer — Chor axis and 1-2 divisions in the Rann of Kutch — Badin area. This pre-supposes that the Indians will have to maintain reserves in all areas north of Jaisalmer right upto Kashmir to meet any thrust from our side. The Zarb-i-Momin picture denotes that we will have 9-10 divisions capable of taking effective offensive action on a single or even multiple fronts on the ground of our choosing. The initiative is with us and not with the Indians, they have limited choices to play around with. Except to make the first move, our Riposte-alternatives should make them apprehensive. The whole point is that the war clock has started ticking, as the situation in Kashmir worsens (with or without our help), India will perforce have to force war on us, both to ride out its domestic compulsions and international pressure, the aim being to muddy the real issues. Because we have to give support to our Kashmiri brethren both by covert and open direct and indirect means, we are locked into a situation and whatever way one looks at it we are well on our way to a Summer-Autumn war this year, the issues rapidly developing a life of its own. The nation must be readied for war psychologically, morally and materially. Our economy must be put on a war footing in the shortest possible time, our defence forces should get out of the peacetime syndrome and gear up for war, the time has come to put all the years of training to the acid test. Many uniformed personnel have shown great ability in various disciplines during peacetime, their willingness to approach war with determination and purpose will evoke their true worth, action speaks much better than promises, the sound of a bullet fired in anger is a great equalizer.

Our political government will probably go for a combination of all three options, recoursing to any one option in the absence of consecutive or simultaneous actions on the other choices will spell disaster for Pakistan, Ms Benazir is too avid a student of history not to adhere to its lessons. While the best solution is always to have a negotiated peace, Indian intransigence on this issue is too well-known to hope otherwise. As regards helping the Kashmiris, given our inherent duty to our brethren, anyone having qualms should be given short shrift. War will be forced upon us whether we like it or not, those who think otherwise are either dangerously gullible or should have their heads examined, there is no way that when push comes to shove the Indians will not gamble on war as a means to settle the issues, already their propaganda machine is laying the groundwork by blaming us for all sorts of imagined machinations in Kashmir. Our leaders across the broad political system need to get over their private ego trips so that a determined government can get on with the business of exercising the options aforestated. The ball is in the court of our politicians, while it is the elected government that has to carry the ball, the opposition has to show mature responsibility in not pushing the government into a corner publicly and vice versa, party politics at this stage is counter-productive to the national aims and objectives. In the end what matters is that the good of Pakistan lies in a Kashmir free of Indian tutelage.

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