Geo-political analysis – Pakistan’s emerging role
Given our domestic pre-occupations since Independence, it is not surprising that we lack a clear annunciation of our strategic role in this region and the world. Our foreign policy has never really been independent, though at times we may have been cast as a maverick to the ensuing world order (notably our early deep friendship with the People’s Republic of China). We are not a poor country, we have been turned into one. As a nation we were blessed with rich resources, in material and skilled manpower. We wasted the first decade in internecine quarrels that led us to the first Martial Law which in turn laid the seeds for the Second Martial Law resulting in disintegration in 1971 into two sovereign independent nations of Pakistan and Bangladesh. While pre-1971 we identified ourselves with South East Asia, belatedly we turned to the Middle East, by then the chance of leadership in the region had been taken over by Iran on the strength of its oil revenues. Oil riches has also transformed the other countries of the Middle East to the extent that our skilled and unskilled manpower have just become another cog in the vast number of expatriates from other countries.
The Afghan crisis was thrust upon us, it was not of our making. Gen Ziaul Haq, who had become an international pariah, suddenly found himself as the frontline leader of the anti-communist world in its confrontation to Soviet forces in Afghanistan. For the first few years no great strategic benefit was derived out of the situation, except for the modernization of the Armed Forces, notably the Pakistan Air Force’s acquisition of the Fighting Falcon, the F-16 aircraft. Till very late in the Afghan war it did not occur to us that we could perhaps help change the destinies of the many millions of oppressed Muslims of the Soviet Union bordering Afghanistan, most of whom were not allowed to read the Koran, let alone worship God. This realisation emerged only when the fresh crop of younger, better educated, strongly motivated generals moved into senior staff positions in the Army, a consensus emerged that other benefits could be derived from the situation beyond the expulsion of Soviet troops from Afghanistan (and thus our international borders).
The changes in the Soviet Union are a direct result of the Soviet Army’s humiliation in Afghanistan at the hands of the Afghan Mujahideen. In the ensuing loss of credibility, the Soviet military hierarchy lost its political influence. The Soviet economy was not geared to sustain the long Afghanistan campaign, the economic inadequacies showed up with devastating effect. The Soviets looked to a fresh approach resulting in the rise of Gorbachev, the rest is continuing history, the march of events is going from strength to strength on democratic ideals, a change so vast that German Unification, unthinkable less than a year ago, is now taken as a matter of course.
We are a country blessed with more than adequate resources, our greatest assets are self-autarky in food, skilled manpower and a strong, motivated Armed Forces. While we may be beset by many domestic problems, we are on the way to settling these in a politically satisfactory manner, our problems with India will take some more doing, it has a life of its own which involves the solving of the Kashmir problem since India has not learnt any lessons from history.
Pakistan must now look towards a positive exploitation of its geo-political position in the Islamic World. For years, the west has been apprehensive, without any real evidence, about an Islamic Bloc that will contain the three Muslim republics of the USSR, Iran, Afghanistan, Turkey and Pakistan. Whereas very late in the Afghan conflict, our ISI may have developed such ambitions along this line in keeping with the feelings of our emerging military hierarchy. The installation of the PPP Government in Islamabad put paid to all such thinking, in fact it destroyed the morale and effectiveness of the ISI even in other spheres.
We should not have hesitated about sending troops to Saudi Arabia and UAE immediately, thereby losing a unique and golden chance of solidly aligning behind our two brotherly countries and aligning them behind us for all times to come. Instead of principled stand based on our Islamic feelings, by our belated decision we now seem to be part of a greater US plan to control the Arab oil wealth, this may be a travesty of fact but this is what a few days of caution gets us. However, what is done is done, we must now get on with establishing ourselves as the moderate force that the world will accept as a regional power. This is most important, God forbid that they should turn to India, we will be Balkanized. India must be contained in its desire to become the policeman of this region as it can only do so at the cost of Pakistan’s interests.
The Pakistan Armed Forces are one of the most disciplined forces in the world. With excellent man material to make up the rank and file, Islamic values and national motivation have made it into a sophisticated instrument for war and peace. Speaking in the strategic sense, we represent the forces of moderation in the region. Having not been blessed with oil reserves is no disadvantage if we can capitalize on our human resources. Pakistan has no territorial ambitions, our visions are that of peaceful association with other like-minded states in the region where we can have free inter-commerce and cultural exchange. As the present trend in the USSR has shown, the Muslim republics may well break away, thereby making for the Islamic Bloc by default that everyone seemed to be so apprehensive about without any real reason.
Geo-political ambitions coupled with strong Armed Forces can lead to aggression (as Saddam Hussain’s Iraq has shown) or it can serve the cause of peace. The economic deprivation faced by the vast Muslim masses in the region other than the Gulf countries is so acute that this Bloc’s prime objective can only be the economic amelioration of its own population. At the same time, instead of being susceptible to outside forces as seen in the present Gulf Crisis, we represent the forces of moderation that will police the peace in this region. It is important that our strategic planners give immediate attention to making this dream into a reality, the idea not being to forge unnatural alliances but of associations of mutual respect and friendship. Given Pakistan’s skilled populace and vast agricultural resources, we should move with speed to establish ourselves as one of the dominant forces in the region. In the geo-political sense, destiny beckons us, are we bold enough to reach for it?
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