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Promises, commitment

As the Cold War dissipated in the 80s and the Soviet Union became another footnote in history, Pakistan found itself in the cross-hairs of a substantial shift in US policy. From being one of the cornerstones of US interests in being a frontline state in the fight against communism, Pakistan became overnight one of America’s major concerns. As the emphasis shifted from nuclear missile confrontation between the Superpowers to the awesome responsibilities on the US of being the only strongman on the block, its major worries became, in order of priority, viz (1) nuclear non-proliferation (2) terrorism and (3) drug trafficking. Unfortunately in all three, Pakistan was on the wrong side of the dividing line, escaping in 1992 by the skin of the teeth from being declared as a “terrorist” state, a drastic comedown in US esteem. With the application of the Pressler Amendment, Pakistan found itself squeezed in a double-vise as both US economic and military aid dried up, the Afghan War in the meantime went on and on. To add insult to injury, US froze the F-16 deal for which payments had already been made and the aircraft are now gathering dust in the Mojave Desert in the State of Nevada. Since 1990 Pakistan has been on the receiving end of almost all adverse propaganda that could possibly afflict us. We had more or less the same troops as had Egypt in Saudi Arabia in Operation “Desert Storm”. Egypt got all its loans waived, economic and military, we got the threat of a default. Matters started to get worse in May 1998 after the Indian nuclear blasts as the West, led by the US, alternately threatened and wooed us, to stop us from reacting. Within days, in the face of massive Indian bellicosity and threats, even sane heads who had counselled caution, were resigned to Pakistani retaliatory blasts. While the US imposed sanctions mandated by the US Congress, it was clear that they recognised that we were the “underdogs” and therefore the sanctions were imposed were done without any great enthusiasm when we actually carried out our series of nuclear blasts on May 28. The last Thursday of May 1998 changed a lot of things for Pakistan. For starters it stopped the drumroll of Indian threats being hurled by every tin-pot Indian politician. Next it brought us on an even keel as far as respect is concerned in a region that only recognises power. And most of all, among other factors, it shored up the sagging morale of the populace, specially the Armed Forces. However, in one punitive strike on ourselves the financial credibility of the country was destroyed by the act of freezing the Foreign Currency Accounts (FCAs). With the single prop of inward expatriate remittances dwindling to almost zero count, we were in serious economic trouble and if it had not been for our various uncles ranging from China to Saudi Arabia, etc chipping in with an odd hundred million or two here and there, we would have defaulted months ago.

 To add to Samuel Huntington’s “Clash of Civilizations”, foreseeing a confrontation between west and Islam, Pakistan faces more complications, of the Taliban-kind mostly. For the first time we are estranged from our traditional ally, Iran and became isolated in the region because of the extreme Islamist policies of the government (that we support) of our wilful neighbour, Afghanistan. In contrast to the Taliban (and even the Government in Iran) our Islamic garb is far more moderate, but in the world perception we are the driving force behind the Taliban. While it suits us geo-politically in the short run to have the Taliban as the rulers in Afghanistan, their policies in the larger part do not suit either our world image or our vision as a nation at all. In the circumstances our Shariah Bill, Constitutional Amendment-15 (CA-15) seems to be a form of pre-emptive strike against the Taliban mode of governance spilling over the porous borders. With India in turmoil due to BJP’s naked Hindu religious nationalism that tolerates no other religion, Pakistan’s instability became a cause for alarm among world capitals. As much as the perception at the establishment level was to “punish” us, among the hierarchy there was a growing realisation that Pakistan needed to be “saved”, mainly from itself. The “domino effect” was avoided in South East Asia, could that principle be valid here? With the example of growing anarchy fed on different factions including religious bigotry very current in the international mind, the US made an 180 degree turnaround in its decision to finally come to the support of Pakistan. Coercing IMF to come to Pakistan’s aid with a massive infusion of funds, US President Clinton moved to waive some sanctions, he has continued to do so during the PM’s visit underscoring the US support for the government. Very pointedly, the US President’s certification to US Congress has been done for a year, signifying that there is a “price” to be paid by Pakistan during the year of grace.

 What is the “price” to be paid? In the first instance Pakistan is already committed in principle to signing the CTBT within one year i.e. before the time of ratification of the Treaty runs out, which satisfies the US for the moment. Beyond that as Foreign Secretary Shamshad has pointed out, neither nuclear non-proliferation (NPT) treaty nor “roll back” are in our vocabulary, or so he says. Like the BJP has discovered to is electoral horror in India, to the mass populace the price of “onions” is more important than nuclear chauvinism. No government in Pakistan would survive any unilateral step that would give India an inherent military advantage, if the population does not give it short shrift the Armed Forces will. It is a fact that India’s nuclear ambitions are different from our own, they perceive themselves as a world power, a member of the exclusive nuclear club. On the other hand, our only ambition is to counter the Indian threat to our own security. As regards signing the CTBT, given that it does not compromise our nuclear potential, we have given a commitment of sorts to go that route, conditionally and eventually. The fear in establishment circles is that the US may extract commitments further down the line on rollback and FMCT. It may even force a “freeze” on further development (and procurement), particularly in that of the delivery vehicle i.e. missiles and combat aircraft. While one cannot expect Mian Nawaz Sharif to compromise Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns there is a growing doubt about the quantum and mode of the “price” we have to pay. One recognises that US understands our government’s predicament but will the US “rollback” its ambitions on the set parameters of nuclear non-proliferation for compliance?

 Confronted by an angry mob, burning with religious fervour, at the height of the Salman Rushdie affair in February 1989, a somewhat bemused American (what had Rushdie to do with the US?) turned to his Pakistani friend and commented, “I wonder how many would cross over this side if I were to wave US visas at them?” The Pakistani had no answer because in the general sense he was right, why do we persist in befriending a country we profess to hate so loudly and so frequently? The answer is that we are basically double-faced hypocrites who love to label the US as a monster even while arranging to send our children to US colleges/universities and our parents for treatment at US clinics/hospitals. The answer is that even while beating our chest about economic independence, we are tied to the apron strings of the world financial institutions mostly controlled by the US. The answer is that Mian Nawaz Sharif has finally learnt real-politik and perfected the art of double-speak so assiduously practised by the Bhuttos, father and daughter, in carrying on a love-hate relationship with the US.

 The PM’s visit to the US has been momentous, if not for the US, at least for the Sharifs. In turmoil since the May 28 nuclear blasts, faced with turmoil on the streets and in the Boardrooms, the loss of its financial credibility among expatriate Pakistanis and a clutchful of bad policy initiatives one after the other, the Nawaz Sharif regime was in severe danger of collapsing like a house of cards, aided on the way by a looming debt repayment default. With the White House glow of US Presidential attention and the glory shed by the elite in the world’s capital shining on him, Mian Nawaz Sharif has nowhere to go but up in the esteem of the Pakistani populace. As a bridge-building exercise, the PM’s US visit was a great success. The mark-up may come later and it may not be in the Islamic mode of financing either!

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