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Life after CTBT

As widely expected, in his address to the UN General Assembly the PM held out that Pakistan was not averse to signing the CTBT before the mandate runs out next September, provided that US-led sanctions that had caused suspension of the IMF programme and other aid programmes were lifted. Before the PM’s visit to New York a well-orchestrated media campaign to support the government’s stance leasing towards CTBT-signing culminated with a claim by prominent national nuclear scientists, led by Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan, that with the series of tests of Chagai there was no need for further tests for weaponisation (and subsequent deployment) of nuclear warheads. Given that till very recently, acknowledged members of the nuclear club like France and China, had risked world approbation to carry out tests far beyond their actual physical deployment of nuclear weapons in various mode, this claim borders on the miraculous, but then we live in the age of miracles, mostly contrived, in this day and age.

Whether Pakistan carried out secret tests in the 80s is not known but the fact is that controlled laboratory environment can simulate actual conditions and a crude nuclear weapon programme is possible to be developed without necessarily going through actual physical tests. One cannot know for sure till an actual explosion whether theory has been safely converted into practice and since friend and foe were actually questioning our capability (for their own reasons India had resorted to hooting at our “claimed”capability after their May 11 explosion), the Chagai series was useful to put that doubt to rest.

For the record, for Pakistan the signing of CTBT has far lesser implications than for India, India’s stated ambitions being to join the nuclear club and to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council. Our nuclear weapon programme has always been stated simply as a legitimate security necessity meant to be a counter to the Indian capability. As was amply demonstrated between May 11 and May 28, our decision to go the nuclear route became a matter of life and death once the Indians went nuclear in 1974. Where we may heap criticism on late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto for a number of major policy missteps, particularly the nationalisation route that has economically set us back to the dark ages, let us at least unselfishly give him absolute credit for single-mindedly initiating and pursuing the clandestine nuclear programme to remain abreast with India. The Indian rhetoric after their May 11 explosions amply demonstrated what they would have done to us if we had not had a nuclear programme. In the circumstances and in spite of our known (and suspected) capability, India went on a brutal psychological warfare campaign after their May 11 explosion to not only explicitly state what they intend to do to us but also to rub our noses in the dirt while we contemplated our possible fate at their hands. To late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, primarily for initiating our programme, to late Gen Ziaul Haq for continuing it and both to Ms Benazir Bhutto and Mian Nawaz Sharif for persevering with the nuclear programme, the nation owes a debt of gratitude, this notwithstanding other reasons for disaffection and/or disillusionment. The bringing of our bomb out of the nuclear-closet was not a scientific need alone, it was a dire necessity in the face of intense psychological warfare, it became a matter of life and death, a matter of existence as a nation.

Having been locked into this situation since May 11, with the nuclear explosion only a question of timing, no ifs and buts about the necessity, the government of Mian Nawaz Sharif failed to prepare adequately for the consequences. Instead of consolidating and girding up our economic loins, we embarked on a series of disastrous missteps inclusive of May 28 and post thereof. The economic sanctions were foreseen, we were ill-prepared to absorb the consequences, rather we took no measures whatsoever to mitigate the consequences. On a number of fronts we took a disastrous course of action. If China, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait had not bailed us out financially, we would have been swept away economically like Indonesia, except that Indonesia was still being sustained by the west (and some of its ASEAN friends) while we were being choked by their sanctions. By the end of July it was clear that we were in deep economic straits and our friends could not continue to bail us out forever. Bad timing continued to obey Murphy’s Law, political events within and outside the country continue to be-devil us, culminating in CA-15, underscoring the penchant for the Mian Nawaz Sharif regime for shooting themselves in the foot at very short (and not even decent) intervals. At the moment of their greatest triumph, instead of building upon their strength, the regime exposed its weaknesses, one of which afflicts every government, to try and remain in power at all costs, whatever the consequences to the integrity and sovereignty of the country. Critics may be right in saying that committing to sign the CTBT tends to surrender our sovereign right to maintain a nuclear capability, that, this is only the first step in ultimately rolling back the nuclear programme, that to sustain its own existence, the present government is bartering away our options. On the face of it, CTBT is simply a document that binds us to not testing nuclear devices but the language of the Treaty gives us ample room to manoeuvre to safeguard our legitimate security concerns. But with the US now not so subtly “shifting the goal posts” in asking for more nuclear concessions, the suspicions are coming home to roost. Indeed there could be some suspicion that to ensure government longevity Mian Nawaz Sharif could compromise our existence but the PML (N) is not a bunch of rubber-stampers who would blindly follow the leader, case in point CA-15. Quite apart from selfishness and greed among a significant minority, there is always “a great silent majority” that will rebel at any such attempt to compromise our sovereignty not so silently. However, given the predilection of our MNAs and MPAs to blindly follow the leader, the fear is always there that matters could be bulldozed to suit the PML(N) leaders and then we could be in trouble. Any international commitment by any government is binding on the nation. As we have seen in the matters of IPPs, once a government of the day signs a sovereign guarantee, other States tend to hold you to it, regardless of the legitimacy and logic of arguments against such agreements. Therefore, if the government of the day speaks with a forked tongue, that is churn out a lot of rhetoric to please a domestic audience while at the same time negotiating a secret undertaking otherwise with the powers-that-be, then we are in real trouble and then the question arises, what are the safeguards against such an eventuality? If CA-15 sees the light of day, especially in its present form, the checks and balances in the system will go down the tube, the dangers will then become very real for the existence of this nation as whosoever is in charge of the government scrambles to please the west in order to be economically bailed out.
There is life after CTBT but that is for a government that exercises prudence, both domestically and internationally. Unfortunately successive governments have tied our economic strings to an overflow of debt (and their repayments), as such in having to steer a conservative course out of this economic minefield we will have to pay a price. What price we actually pay will depend upon the integrity and sincerity of our leaders to the nation above and beyond their own interests. The world now recognises that our security concerns vis-a-vis India is legitimate and that the Kashmir question is a real issue that needs resolution. However, the world will tend to drive a hard bargain while our leaders are weak, tending to agreement at any cost. No individual government has the moral authority to mortgage the existence of the nation in such circumstances, all elements must become a part of the campaign and they can only do so if asked to by the government. Now, as never before we need a united nation, government and opposition allied in the quest to sustain our sovereign independence. National government anyone? Preferably one led by Mian Nawaz Sharif but if he does not agree, then regrettably without him.

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