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Sovereignty at risk

The obvious uncertainty pervading the country is whether the intense artillery duel across the Line of Control (LOC) in Kashmir will escalate into a battle localized to that area or into a full-scale war between India and Pakistan. The Indian Air Force (IAF) made some incursions, however, that came to naught except for their helicopter gunships strafing civilian targets. IAF Chief Air Marshal Sareen, visiting Kashmir, brushed aside the “Guns of August” as a “seasonal thing”. It is true that the LOC remains alive during August because August and September are roughly the best (and last) available period for cross-border activity, particularly for logistics. The Indians annually attempt to interdict such activity by sporadic shelling of possible infiltration routes. However, this time the coordinated nature of the artillery shelling and the quantum is much more intense and widespread, almost across the entire length of the LOC and by all accounts it is an Advani-initiated exercise with far graver implications. By all accounts, Pakistan Army’s 10 Corps was able to give an effective response, enough to silence their guns in a number of locations. Pakistan went through a very uncertain period after the May 11 Indian blasts, the Indian belligerency till the exploding of our own nuclear devices now seems almost unreal. In this day and age, for a country to threaten another with nuclear war and annihilation is rather extraordinary. Despite the economic consequences foreseen, Pakistan had no choice but to go ahead with our own nuclear blasts to even the military, and more importantly, psychological balance.

While it took courage to face upto the western world, particularly a disapproving US, the Nawaz Sharif Government unfortunately had not taken concrete steps to cope with the sanctions threatened by the West. While one could concede that pre-blast such steps could not be made public, at least the government should have had a gameplan which could have been well thought out before implementation. Not only was this lacking but post-blast the government got caught up in the general euphoria and instead of consolidating its gains, mainly national unity, it went ahead and announced dramatic political and economic initiatives, the public reaction effectively derailing that euphoria and putting the nation’s sovereignty at risk. Kalabagh Dam is necessary but the will of the people could have been built through consensus, not arbitrary announcement to that effect. Similarly the freeze of Foreign Currency Accounts (FCAs) was necessary under the circumstances but a better way could have been devised to get past the obstacle.

 The net result of bad policy initiatives is that not only has it put the Mian Nawaz Sharif regime at risk but also the nation’s sovereignty. While our economic scenario is desperate, a resilient parallel economy is keeping us afloat. Even at the end of our survival tether, the official rate of exchange has depreciated by 2-3% whereas the unofficial rate has fluctuated between 18-22%. Again, given the adverse circumstances, particularly the sanctions, this is not a bad performance. When taking into account that hundreds of millions have come below the poverty line in Indonesia, S. Korea and Thailand, this becomes relatively positive. However, good governance could have kept us on better economic and political keel. To forestall further deterioration, the Government is going through with a cabinet re-shuffle. Going by the track record of the Sharif brothers, this changeover will be used to stifle the remaining dissent in the Cabinet, a sure recipe for political disaster in the future. As it is, the present Cabinet members are hardly known to raise any voice of argument for fear it will not find favour with the Sharif brethren. Once the Cabinet is fully stacked with a bunch of yes-men, more serious mistakes across the board are more likely to occur. Amazingly the only bold initiatives taken by the Sharifs were of personal vendetta, that they could find time to indulge in this exercise while the nation is at risk is at the very least, astonishing.

 With the nation in a state of virtual internal collapse, the Indian firing across the LOC has helped to stabilize the situation. Domestically, Mian Nawaz Sharif has nothing to fear from a fragmented opposition, led in Sindh by a person labelled internationally as corrupt and in NWFP by a sub-regional leader of a party with parliamentary strength only because of the misplaced generosity of PML (N). Former President Farooq Leghari lacks political credibility in the absence of regional stalwarts from any party and in the presence of political lightweights whose only claim to fame is to be “talented” in acquiring authority on the coat-tails of extra-constitutional power. The Jamaat-i-Islami has the only cadres with potential street power but it has only focussed political strength in few locations, though Imran Khan is perennially on the hustings he has limited still political nuisance value, he can only benefit from a long-term national government followed by an electoral exercise that sees the PML (N) and PPP lose their leaders to third parties. The only “political” party left is the Army and fortunately for Mian Nawaz Sharif, despite the consensus availing from the unit and formation Monthly Security Intelligence Reports (MSIRs), particularly the column labelled “Morale-Military” and “Morale-Civilians”, the present hierarchy is extremely professional and disinclined from Napoleonic adventure. Possible alternate Caretaker names have been aired, they have possibly disappeared in the smoke of artillery shelling across the LOC. In a series of garrison visits, the COAS has very emphatically argued against “Quick-Fix” solutions and pointed to the credibility of those advising it as well as to the Army becoming part of the problem rather than solving the problem. The Army cannot afford to get bogged down internally at this time. It is already involved in Karachi by proxy through the Rangers and is deeply worried about the drying up of funds, not only for its vital and essential purchases but day to day running of the military machine. As much as the COAS may want to remain distant from the political situation, the Army is being drawn inexorably into the governance process and in the end may find themselves operating more than the usual remote control buttons despite the COAS’s best intentions. Mian Nawaz Sharif’s regime will not be able to withstand any further major faux pas in the prevailing environment. There is always a fail-safe line between democratic process and autocratic government in any third world country, if the PM brings autocracy into his government it may well soon be replaced by more authoritative autocracy in the country. He cannot juggle both and get away with consequences thereof. The only solution for a democratic PM like Mian Nawaz Sharif to limit sovereign risk is to widen and deepen the democratic process through the broad spectrum of government from Local Bodies upto the Federal Cabinet. Our national unity is fragmenting because of the lack of people’s participation in governance at every level. When the people gave their mandate to the PM, they expected performance based on their interest and not on the interest of an inwardly looking city-nation biased inner coterie, long on flattery and short on common sense and logic. Each crisis has the potential of turning into a disaster and as everyday dawns, the country is going deeper into debt and with no solutions in sight. As history has repeatedly shown, when absolute disaster looms, necessity becomes the bane of even the most sincere of intentions.

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