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Golden moments, re-assignments

Once India had exploded its second nuclear device on May 11, Pakistan was time-locked into a reaction, delayed only by logistics rather than logic. That enforced delay was God-sent, adding to one of 20th century’s great strategy blunders by India in giving Pakistan the raison d’etre for taking its own nuclear programme out of the closet without incurring inordinate criticism and/or persecution, at least relative to India. During the period between May 11 and May 28, India went berserk. Awash in their own euphoria, BJP leaders threatened Pakistan not only with war but with using their nuclear capability to enforce their will. As much as western powers, led by US President Bill Clinton, tried their level best to dissuade Pakistan, by May 28 they were resigned to the fact that in the circumstances Pakistan had no choice. As such world reaction, though proforma criticism of India and Pakistan was equal, has been far more detrimental to India. Suddenly Kashmir has been thrust into the world stage as one of the main concerns, the status quo of benign indifference cannot be maintained anymore. From being consigned in the cold storage, this is a crisis that the world recognises must be solved to prevent a regional nuclear holocaust. Furthermore in contrast to India, Pakistan has some very special friends who are active in giving Pakistan material support. If one adds the return of China’s unwavering support as an article of faith in maintaining Pakistan’s security, Pakistan has come out far ahead. Taking stock of the events, Pakistan has not had a commensurate 30 days in its history where everything has gone so right, these have been Pakistan’s golden moments. The prime beneficiary has been Mian Nawaz Sharif, basking in public adulation at taking what is certainly the wise decision in the country’s best interest, luckily it coincided with his own best interests.

What the country now needs is a continuance of decision-making in the country’s best interests, these need not necessarily be what he perceives to be in his own best interests, at least in the short term. However, he needs to take calculated gambles on merit rather than on nepotism and cronyism. For the country there is nothing more important than to have the best persons available in each key slots to espouse the national cause, domestically and internationally. At this moment persistence with mediocrity to handle sensitive issues will be tantamount to sabotage of the national effort, the PM should not forget this in making his manpower allocation task-oriented.

To start with let us take the Foreign Ministry. I believe that Gohar Ayub Khan did an admirable job in playing the “Hawk” during the dark days after May 11 when the public morale had plummeted and someone had to carry the cudgel to give the PM time to act out his dynamic restraint. Since the Foreign Minister has himself asked to be “re-assigned” (and not “resign” as some “Foreign Minister hopefuls” had immediately propagated), the PM should take him on his word and give him his desire. This provides a golden opportunity to fill the Foreign Ministry slot with a very competent person, a person who is not only articulate and knowledgeable but experienced in the ways of both diplomacy and politics.

Why is the Foreign Ministry so important? This slot is vital to the country’s well being considering the diplomatic offence in the next few months with Kashmir as the main agenda on the world menu for solution. Having won the psychological nuclear battle we may yet lose the war unless we have our most potent person handling the sensitive negotiations as well as maintaining control over the Mandarins that rule the Foreign Ministry roost and are time-locked into the 1948 UN resolution on Kashmir as well as anti-Israel stance without any dynamics in adjusting to new realities. The Kashmir dispute must be understood both historically and geographically without getting into the famous “principled stand” mode that we espouse to high heaven. Only a person having a fresh mind and politically inclined with the ruling government can deliver, not a fair weather vane. In this respect, we have the wrong man in Washington. Riaz Khokhar in Dhaka in 1987-9 was a self-proclaimed Zia man, the whole of Dhaka’s elite is witness to how he changed overnight to being a Benazir loyalist, singing her praises to high heaven and manoeuvering a posting to the PM’s Secretariat once she was in power where he remained her close confidant. He then survived the change of government somehow till Benazir sent him to India as High Commissioner. Because of his connections to Farooq Leghari and the ISI, he was sent in as replacement by the Caretaker Government when Dr. Maleeha Lodhi’s term expired as Pakistan’s Ambassador to the US. Despite his professions (or protestations) now of loyalty to the Mian Nawaz Sharif regime, it was his tacit OK that cleared the way for Mrs Hilary Clinton, the US President’s wife, to meet Ms Benazir Bhutto, Since Bhutto is now clearly close to indictment by Swiss Court for corruption, this show of acceptability was a shock to the people of Pakistan and an indirect snub to the ruling regime. It is time to stack Riaz Khokhar away from where he can do no more damage to the Nawaz Sharif regime.

Similarly Geneva is important since increasingly this is where the Big-5 will meet occasionally to take up solution of India-Pakistan problems, the root cause being Kashmir. Mr. Munir Akram is a fine diplomat but his PPP connections are very well known for this crucial post to remain occupied by him. There is an effervescent danger here which does not necessarily cast aspersion on his professionalism. Similarly the government has to look at second and third level staffers in vital Embassies and make sure that those who have had political connections that may be exploitable by forces with their own vested interests and/or agenda are re-adjusted in non-sensitive locations that cannot interfere in any manner with this government’s sincere purpose for the country.

 The hard fact remains that the US is the only dominant Super-power capable of enforcing its will. While clearly US President Bill Clinton is more favourably disposed towards Pakistan than India, mainly because he was shocked at the inherent Indian deceit and duplicity, his inner-circle cabinet members are of Jewish extraction and will certainly be alarmed if the Pakistan nuclear capacity is taken as the precursor of an “Islamic Bomb” that directly threatens Israel. While Madeleine Albright, US Secretary of State, has Jewish ancestors, luckily her father was the author of a UN report (which she typed as a young student) that correctly portrayed the situation in Kashmir. Senator William Cohen, the US Defence Secretary, US Treasury Secretary Rubin and Samuel Berger, the National Security Advisor are all Jewish. Moreover US Vice President Al Gore is much more inclined towards Israel than others in the administration — and he is likely to be President, even sooner than later if the Lewinsky affair blows up in Clinton’s face. Obviously when coming to the negotiating table we have to be careful that our nuclear capacity is not perceived as a nuclear threat to Israel. And why should we be? While it is correct that we do not recognise Israel till the solution of the dispute over lands holy to Islam e.g. Al-Aqsa Mosque in Jerusalem, some of the Arabs already have relations with Israel and informally so do the Palestinians. Yasser Arafat never supports Pakistan over India, rather vice-versa is more of the norm. The Arab League, dominated by Egypt, Palestine and Syria rushed in to condemn Pakistan over the bomb when they could have at least held their peace. For too long we have been blindly and fully supporting the Palestinian cause, getting positive response only from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, etc in return, so let us be selective of our support. Certainly we may not have any relations with Israel as a so-called “principled stand” but why should we make an enemy of a country with whom we have no direct dispute? Let us at least, more from a posture of enmity to a posture of benign indifference and react to situations only if it concerns our friends Saudi Arabia, UAE, Jordan, etc. We must wholeheartedly support those friends who support us and wholeheartedly shun those who show inclination to India. As a Muslim country, why is it that we depend most upon Communist China for support? More than religion, it is because of geopolitical realities that we are nearer to China.

We must put Pakistan above everything else. We have been lucky as regards China and that only because Indian leaders led by George Fernandes stayed out too long in the afternoon sun. We have to take into account that US can play a positive role in future negotiations over Kashmir and have to be pragmatic about our options without toeing their line. We have had a long run of almost a month in our golden moments, the PM should use that positively to re-assign the manpower allocation in a systematic, concerted manner focussed only on one issue, the best person for the job — and that is to ensure the best returns for Pakistan.

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