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Ghauri vs Prithvi

In the context of development of missiles, the HATF series of guided missiles is a fairly modest programme. In the context of the missile-race in the South Asian sub-continent, however, the launching of GHAURI on 6 April 98 at 7:23 am is a giant step towards closing the yawning gap that India is building vis-a-vis Pakistan. In real terms, GHAURI was a specific answer to PRITHVI, which in the making of and deployment thereafter was clearly Pakistan-specific. When Prithvi-2 was deployed by the Indian Army at Jullundur close to the Pakistan border, it put almost all of Pakistan’s major cities within its 270 km range. There was great euphoria in India at Pakistan’s obvious discomfort. For years Pakistan has been lobbying western capitals to restrain India from its missile programme, India cannot deny its blatant chest-beating in brushing away Pakistani fears. More explicitly, the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee General Jahangir Karamat, spoke last year publicly about the desperate need for self-reliance in combating the Indian missile lead. Clear that no help was forthcoming from the diplomatic field, the green signal was given to the team of Pakistani scientists and engineers to go-ahead with the missile programme on an emergency basis. With the launching of GHAURI, a quantum leap has been taken to bring the level of Mutually Assured Deterrence (MAD) to even balance.

Technically speaking, GHAURI, with its 1500 km range and 670 kg payload is far ahead of PRITHVI but in terms of actual geographical depth of India and Pakistan, PRITHVI matches the tactical concept of GHAURI, both are strategic force-multipliers for each country as PRITHVI reaches most Pakistani cities and GHAURI, despite its range, takes in only a few major Indian cities, including the two who really matter, New Delhi and Mumbai.

The answer for what GHAURI does for Pakistan lies in the question as to what PRITHVI did for India. In a very sophisticated media campaign aimed specifically at the minds of the Pakistani civilian masses, PRITHVI brought apprehension (if not fear) and despondency among the population, giving them a feeling of insecurity and helplessness. It quite frankly affected Pakistani civilian morale leading to some pacifists clamouring for “peace at any price”, some retired military figures even spoke about giving up the struggle to ward off Indian hegemony in the region. GHAURI not only restores the technical balance of arms but shores up the Pakistani populace at what was increasingly looking as a hopeless situation. It did our morale no good either when the BJP came to power and started their sabre-rattling with a clear statement of intention on going nuclear. Farooq Abdullah started to talk about seizing Azad Kashmir territory in retaliation of “interference” by Pakistan in India’s “internal affairs”, almost on cue, the GOC-in-C Indian-Held Kashmir started to talk about “hot pursuit”. While no one really started to shake in his pants at this bit of Indian jingoism, Pakistan had to take Indian Defence Minister Fernandes seriously when he voiced similar threats. A senior Indian columnist even went to the extent of recommending artillery barrages to target Islamabad, the Mangla Dam, etc as a sort of the duels which went on between Israel and Egypt on the one hand and Israel and Syria on the other during the late 60s and the early 70s, as a deliberate effort to damage Pakistan’s economic interests. While all this would be understandable during the heat of the election campaign, when such talk spills over after a government comes to power we must begin to take the Indians and their rhetoric, however strident, seriously. This is after all a country that is presently (or has been till recently) engaged in some military dispute or the other with three of its major neighbours, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, having cowed down Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives. This is a country with a history of aggressive design deep-rooted in its ambitions for hegemony in the region, should we shirk our responsibility by not taking their ambitions seriously?

What GHAURI has done materially is to put a monkey wrench in India’s campaign to “win a battle without bloodying swords”, to quote Sun Tzu. In fact GHAURI has turned the table with respect to India’s psy-war  campaign. Very much like Iraq’s SCUD missile was more bark than bite, it did put the population of Saudi Arabia and Israel in deep fear far in excess to the material damage done once they landed. In the same coin dealt out to Pakistan minds, GHAURI has scarred the minds of the Indian populace and the Indian hierarchy recognize this belatedly. Witness the changing stance as respects GHAURI. First the Indians blamed the Chinese for helping Pakistan with the technology for GHAURI, they then quickly shifted the blame to the North Koreans. Realizing now that in accepting GHAURI as a force-multiplier threat they were deeply dampening the morale of the Indian populace, already riven with anxiety and fear, the Indians changed tack very fast. They trotted out their entire military hierarchy in the form of the Chiefs of the three Services at a Press Conference at an Exhibition near Mumbai. IAF Chief Air Marshal Sareen went to great lengths to motivate the civilian population not to fear GHAURI and that the Indians would counter this as soon as they had hard intelligence. Some Indian reports are now suggesting the GHAURI is sheer propaganda. This is nothing but bait, the Indians know very well GHAURI but they would like to know more is no farce. The IAF Chief took the unusual step of indicating Indian spy satellite would shortly be commissioned to glean all kinds of information from the “enemy” State, i.e Pakistan. To raise the Indian civilian morale and dispel their apprehensions he literally went overboard. In contrast our Naval Chief Admiral Fasih Bokhari in an interview with DJ spoke publicly about replacing 50 years of hostility with India with 50 years of peace and harmony. Those who think that India is pursuing “peace” with its projected nuclear weapons capability as well as Agni, Prithvi, etc are either dangerously naive to be taken in by Indian publicity — or dangerously pacifist — or both! The Indians outreached themselves in pressurizing the minds and morale of the Pakistan populace, we must have forceful people with committed to intentions countering the Indians at every level at the helm of affairs.

Prithvi was Pakistan specific as it meant to (1) disturb Pakistan’s order of battle (ORBAT) in strategic deployment (2) cause fear among the minds of the Pakistani populace (3) raise the morale of the Indian masses and (4) in case of war, to rain down on Pakistani cities and disrupt everyday life very much like the German V-I and V-2 programme did to the UK during the Second World War. GHAURI has changed that, very much like Shahabuddin Ghauri defeated Maharaja Prithvi Raj, the Pakistani IRBM has in a sense defeated India’s missile even before it has itself been inducted into service, beating the Indians at their own psy-war game and putting them in reverse under the same pressures they applied on Pakistan with the induction of Prithvi-2. One word of caution to our media team, Ghauri has done its stuff and more, let’s not destroy the good work created by indulging over-kill by State-disseminated propaganda. Ghauri has made Prithvi history, why are we trying to resurrect the dead?

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