Interacting dreams with realities
Geographical realities are increasingly dictating regional interaction between states. If like-mindedness is the thread that draws nations together on a single platform, the fabric that binds them together must be economic. Purely on that premise, the SAARC Head of State/Government exercise is a natural forum for enhancing economic cooperation, much more than envisaged for ASEAN and COMECON and similar to the European Common Market which existed very much in the minds of planners searching for a suitable role model.
Economic interaction within the SAARC boundaries almost pre-dates history, is not a new concept but is a revival on a regional basis of ancient relationships and practices, it fails miserably to take into account polarization due to religious beliefs, compounded further by ethnic rivalries. This has been further exacerbated by the Superpower pretensions of hegemonistic India, the net result being that each independent nation on India’s periphery (and some subjugated ones within its boundaries) have some sort of a grievance and/or conflict with India, some of the member nations having literally been rendered speechless by the sheer force of Indian armed might. It is a sad commentary that what is perceived to be the largest democracy in the world is perhaps the only country in the comity of nations (barring Israel which has its survivability at stake) which resorts to gunboat diplomacy pre-dating the First World War. With this political background, the SAARC countries annual meeting may be welcome from the point of view of an exercise in regional public relations but it is most likely to remain moribund in further development.
In economic terms, SAARC is singularly fit for integration. Commodities and goods which are produced within the geographical frontiers of the region make it almost independent of the rest of the world in commercial terms. Pakistan’s rice (and sometimes wheat production) surpluses are usually enough to meet the food deficit of all the other six countries. Our gas reserves are vast enough to be shared with adjacent areas of India while India’s vast technological base serves as a source of supply for the machinery needs of all the other countries except Pakistan (which has fairly sophisticated technical expertise/potential of its own). Bangladeshi raw jute, jute goods and tea meets all the surplus demands of the region, so does Indian and Sri Lankan tea, spices and other products. The production of fish, poultry and milk can be coordinated to meet regional needs and Bangladesh can meet most of SAARC’s newsprint requirements with modernization and expansion of its present production facilities. SAARC countries produce substantial cement and steel while distribution of energy resources can be more efficiently done on a regional basis. Since the distances to be travelled, mostly on road and rail, will be relatively much shorter, the saving on freight haulage will contribute to the respective economies while whatever the expenditures are incurred also will remain within our economic frontiers. A better communications set-up on the European pattern envisaging rail, road and telecommunications is a natural corollary, a blue print of voluntary inter-dependance.
The principal ingredient missing in the SAARC relationship is that the present complement is not complete without the addition of Iran, Afghanistan and Oman to the west and Burma to the east (Turkey has been excluded because of its European Common Market aspirations otherwise it would be a most welcome and useful addition). Territorially contiguous and adjacent to Pakistan, Iran is a vast market for South Asian goods. In return, Iranian crude makes up the critical energy resources deficiency bedevilling South Asia. Pakistan’s communications with Iran can be upgraded on the basis of the Economic Cooperation Organisation (ECO) (which includes Pakistan, Iran and Turkey), providing all the SAARC countries with access to and fro Iranian markets. Thoughts are similar for Oman as for Iran. There can be no relationship with Afghanistan as long as Soviet troops prop up the present communist regime. After its imminent fall, we can accept the Indian suggestion (if still open in the changed circumstances) to invite Afghanistan to join SAARC. Burma is passing through a flux at this stage but its economic potential is highlighted by its extensive natural resources and is very complementary in the South Asian economy. Down the road Burma’s entry should result in a mutually beneficial relationship. The entry of these four countries also offsets the numerical disadvantage presently faced by Pakistan within SAARC.
The relationship of the other SAARC countries with India has to be clearly defined. India’s massive defence services, equipped with the latest the Russians and the western world have to offer, are meant to cater for Indian security presently “jeopardized” by some mythical enemy. Indian security must not be at the cost of other SAARC countries, lending to their insecurity. India’s “Peace-Keeping Force” is carrying out a relentless war of attrition in Northern Sri Lanka. Swallowing national pride, the Sri Lankans have been bullied into accepting Indian hegemony, in the circumstances it was more prudent for the Sri Lankans rather than attempting heroic national suicide. Maldives was beautifully stage-managed, scripted well, but too perfect to be true. Bhutan can be counted as firmly under Indian tutelage and Nepal has enough internal problems not to seek glory in an anti-Indian stance. Bangladesh, with its internal troubles compounded by natural catastrophes, has no death wish to emulate, though it must be admitted that Gen Ershad does stand up to the Indians in word and deed in support of Pakistan much more than can be expected in the circumstances. Despite the silent good wishes of all of India’s neighbours, Pakistan is thus almost isolated in what was envisaged as a happy communal relationship, an unhappy and untenable position to be in. The addition of more nations to the fraternity brings balance to the inter-relationship between the SAARC countries, particularly in the long-term economic sense, allowing us a choice from having to only drive badly made Indian Marutis, etc. Mr Rajiv Gandhi may be the PM of the largest so-called democracy in the world but he is a prisoner of circumstances (and happenstance) rather than the creator of history, and has an ingrained tendency for political adventurism.
Ms Benazir has a great responsibility thrust on her as the leader of Pakistan in the form of SAARC. She is the voice of not only Pakistan, but in extension the hope of all the downtrodden peoples of South Asia. Her forthright assertion of utter independence will ensure freedom from Indian domination for all our peoples. If she is caught up in the all-encompassing soft-sell being directed towards her personally by the Indians, then not only Pakistanis but all the freedom-loving peoples of this region will suffer. There may be genuine admiration for Ms Benazir among the masses in India, not many can avoid the spell of her charisma, but the leadership in India can only be aghast at her international and domestic credibility. By eulogising her fervently they may be alienating her from such die-hard conservatives among the Pakistan populace to whom anything to do with India (without a free Kashmir) is anathema. The Indians may be collectively mad in their euphoria over Ms Benazir but we must remember that the Indians are Indians, there has to be method in their madness. We can only hope we are wrong, but one can never be wrong about the Indians. While peace is an enduring temptation, it cannot become synonymous with slavery. A strong Pakistan is a guarantee against that eventuality.
The acid test of SAARC therefore lies in Indian good faith. Our normal experience belies much hope but for the sake of peace one should think positively and pray that our instincts are wrong, that the Indians genuinely want the concept of SAARC to succeed not as a perennial BIG brother but as an equal partner in the comity of nations in the region. While one lives on hope, one also stays alive by thinking on one’s feet and Pakistan’s approach to SAARC must be positive but cautious. If SAARC succeeds it will be because the concept of sovereign equality between nations has been kept as a touch-stone. While economically SAARC can go a long way towards genuine emancipation for the masses in South Asia, we stand today on a threshold, while unfortunately only one nation has the key.
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