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National security imperatives

Fifty years into Pakistan’s existence, the omissions of our fathers, as much as their sins, are visiting us with a vengeance. Having learnt no lessons from the political crisis that engulfed us in 1971 leading to the break-up of Pakistan, we are now in the midst of a series of crises, economic, political and geo-political, in that order and of differing magnitude in a very difficult period of time.

At the moment our major problem is an economic slowdown that refuses to pick up despite a great effort by our economic team. The net result of rising deficits is the increasing prices of utilities, cutting deeply into tax incentives given at the beginning of Mian Nawaz Sharif term. These tax incentives were in keeping with standard initiatives to revive the economy but they only succeeded in widening the deficits as businessmen took advantage of lowered taxes to make windfall profits but studiously avoided re-cycling that extra amount into the economy or paying even the lowered government dues. While being pampered by the present regime, the business community has not responded in any degree whatsoever, if anything their attitude on the GST issue is abhorrent. Faced with open insurrection amongst what he considers his base constituency, Mian Nawaz Sharif has faltered, to the detriment of Pakistan. Whereas he needs to be tough with traders to get them into the tax net, he has succumbed to their blackmail that they would pull down their shutters. The fixed tax to be levied may be some progress but unfortunately it detracts from a principle and that sets a precedent for others. While this government has certainly curtailed expenditure, most of it has been in the development mode, the aura of an imperial governance persists. While collection of revenues is a major problem the new Chairman CBR (now being re-organised as the Pakistan Revenue Service – PRS) seems to be upto his task, in a deliberate and methodical manner. Unless we enhance revenue collection, this nation will go further into debt. The No. 1 problem facing this nation in the economic field is that less than 1% of the population is expected to pay for the modern living standards of the balance 99%.

In contrast to the normal public perception that domestically things are in a crisis, matters politically may in fact have turned for the better for the Mian Nawaz Sharif regime. The PML(N) had bent over backwards to accommodate ANP in the NWFP, this was at best a politics of convenience born of a mutual dislike of the Bhutto clan (and by insinuation the PPP). While politics is the art of compromise there are fundamental differences in the respective ideologies of the PML(N) and ANP. The PML(N) is a national party and the ANP at best a sub-regional one that was raised to regional status by the PML(N) gifting them at least 15 to 18 seats in the last elections. This was a strategic blunder born out of insecurity on the part of PML(N) hierarchy, the ANP’s departure from the alliance is a blessing in disguise. In any future vote, ANP by itself would never get more than 9-12 seats in the Provincial Assembly (PA) and commensurately 4-6 seats in the National Assembly (NA). With the PML(N), they had become a colossus, now they will be exposed as the paper tigers they really are on the national scene. Since the alliance that fought the elections has come apart, the correct thing would be to dissolve the NWFP Assembly and hold new elections. This can also serve as an informal referendum on the ANP demand for Pakhtoonkhwa. Similarly in Sindh, the PML(N)-MQM(A) alliance is at a breaking point on a number of reasons. Like the ANP, MQM(A) is a sub-regional party, confined only to a number of urban seats. PML (N)’s alliance with the MQM (A) is more natural but in political terms they are still an odd couple. Lacking any substance or electoral legitimacy, with a coalition of opportunists cobbled together, Sindh CM Liaquat Ali Jatoi is an unmitigated disaster, a chief executive who is almost never available to solve the Province’s problems. Whereas he should be dealing with macro-issues, particularly that bedevil the economic gateway to the country, his penchant, sandwiched between the Brothers Nazirov, is to go the rural route of wreaking vengeance on his “enemies”, (e.g. stopping water to their lands, filing of false police cases, etc) and thus allowing his urban partners free rein (and reign) to run riot. Because of their militant policies and without the physical presence of their charismatic leader, Altaf Hussain, MQM(A) has steadily lost ground in Karachi. Desperate to re-establish their authority they have tried to use the government’s law enforcement machinery in trying to impose their writ on areas where their disaffected faction, the Haqeeqis, are in majority and which they call “no-go” areas. For the MQM (A) this is vital otherwise in the coming Local Bodies elections they may be reduced to one of the three to four groupings in Karachi rather than being all in all as they once were in the late 80s and early 90s. In the meantime it must be said that as opposed to the ethnic Sindhi content of the Sindh Cabinet, they do provide an element of governance in the Ministries they control. The result in Sindh is that we have an imperfect, lop-sided government that does not serve the ethnic majority since the ethnic CM is ineffectual and without electoral (or any other) credibility. While the alliance is going forward on its momentum of a common antipathy for PPP, reduced presently to regional status having due legitimacy only in Sindh, this arrangement cannot last and the longer it lasts the worse it is for the nation. Why should the majority be held to blackmail by a minority? Mian Nawaz Sharif must recognize that his selection of Jatoi as CM, made in good faith almost as Hobson’s Choice, has turned sour and he needs to re-think his Sindh policy keeping the economic well-being of Karachi upper-most in mind. There is a limit to applying political Band-Aid, it is time to apply Governor’s Rule without further delay.

Geo-politically we are in a mess. While there can be no second-guessing of recognizing the Taliban as forming the legitimate Afghan government in Kabul, we have failed woefully in convincing Iran about our good faith. Since we will have a strongly anti-Pakistan BJP-led government in India for the foreseeable future, striving to bait us in a number of ways, partly in order to stoke nationalist feelings and firm up its presently rather weak constitutional base, we should urgently seek to firm up our traditional allies and remove persisting doubts in the relationship. While not taking Saudi Arabia and Turkey for granted and remembering that China has its own security and economic imperatives, we must make a concerted move to mollify Iran and bring it back to our side as a strong partner in the region. From the statements emanating from India, it is quite clear that the Indians may be preparing for a limited offensive to grab a chunk of Azad Kashmir, gambling that Pakistan may not opt for all-out war. In the same manner that we miscalculated in 1965 in launching Operations “Gibraltar” and “Grand Slam”, the Indians will be wrong in thinking that any attack on Kashmir would not get a strong reaction from Pakistan elsewhere and lead to all-out war, with nuclear connotations. While we can hardly afford a war in such economic circumstances, if it is forced upon us, Pakistan will fight, whatever the consequences. Our weakness in the air complement needs urgent attention of the government. With a better ratio in confronting the Indian Air Force, PAF will be able to keep a measure of air parity over the battlefield. We have to find the money and the requisite aircraft as soon as possible. While the Chinese project is a good long-term proposition, what we need immediately is a hi-tech combat aircraft virtually off the shelf. Without our traditional allies of the cold-war era we have to scramble to maintain our security, air-power is a measure of self-reliance geo-politically.

Mian Nawaz Sharif must show some spine in dealing with his allies, the world did not come to an end with a parting of the ways with ANP. Since the PML (N) cannot succumb to MQM (A)’s 48 hours deadlines, Governor’s Rule should be imposed in Sindh. The PM should treat his broken alliances as positive developments for which he should be thankful. He has to break out of the shackles of his business cronies, both in the paying of taxes and defaulting loans. In the context of geo-politics he has to exploit his personal credibility in the region for the good of the country. Mian Nawaz Sharif has a mandate from the people of Pakistan, it is time that the people of Pakistan benefit from the confidence they have shown in him. This can only be achieved by ensuring that national security imperatives have his macro-attention.

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