Prime Minister, use the CDNS
On the evening of Thursday Nov 20, 1997, the entire nation remained tense. This was the culmination of mind-boggling developments in a confusing series of chess-like moves and counter-moves over the past fortnight. The impeachment of the President had always been on the cards once the honeymoon period between him and the ruling PML was over. “Apocalypse now” was very much a possibility, even if the President was not in league with the CJ till then, who could fault him for using all means available to defend himself? Whether the CJ himself is open to manipulation by anyone is another question, his track record is very much as an individual person with independent views, not subject to any direction from any quarter. On the other hand, the ruling Party had very few options left in the face of continuing legal checkmates by the CJ. When the 14th Amendment was suspended and left no restraining “stable gates” for horses leaving for greener pastures, the ruling Party had held together, would they hold together once the PM was no longer in power? Every dark cloud has a silver lining, this loyalty must be something for Mian Nawaz Sharif and the nation to cherish. The fact also that he got disparate allies such as the ANP, MQM, JWP, etc to stay together is a real feather in the PM’s cap. When the return of the Army Chief on Wednesday morning and his subsequent meetings till late that night did not make any significant impact, the ruling coalition decided then that it was time to raise the stakes and impeach the President.
President Farooq Khan Leghari has done some significant things for this nation, starting with the appointment of Gen Jahangir Karamat as Chief of Army Staff (COAS) over the undeserving scoundrel (nicknamed “Cobra” by his Hasan Abdal schoolmates) who was the favourite of the husband and wife ruling duo in 1995, the sacking of Ms Benazir’s government on a host of charges (duly upheld by the SC) in 1996 and the holding of generally free and fair elections in 1997 (despite the low voter turnout). However, the Caretaker Cabinet chosen by him was mostly an unmitigated disaster based on cronyism. Ominous indeed in that short period was the display of unbridled power by the President’s ex-CSP mates from the 1964 batch. The 1964 batch provides the core leadership for bureaucrats who were believed to have been in favour of a transitional period of two years for conducting an accountability that would have disqualified most political leaders, among them Mian Nawaz Sharif and Ms Benazir. To his lasting credit Leghari went ahead and held the elections in time within 90 days and handed over power, along the way he did extract a few personal concessions. Very early on the PML must have secretly decided to clip his wings. The modus operandi of bringing in the 13th Amendment, which removed Article 52(2)(b) of the Constitution set the stage for the present confrontation. Two or three weeks ago, the President had told the PM, “stop beating round the bush, Prime Minister, why don’t you come out and say what you really want to do and that is to impeach me. You have the votes, Prime Minister, to vote me out of office but I will not forsake my right to address both Houses of Parliament before I go down”, or words to that effect. Whatever the sequence of events, the endgame was the impeachment process, the PML was forced instead to use it as a defence mechanism of last resort. At least it gave the government a breathing space!
The COAS is a rather reticent soul, certainly not given to giving public statements, contrary to speculation nothing was known by anyone about the substance of his meetings with the PM or the President. The impending scheduled hearing of the petition against the 13th Amendment in the SC on Friday morning confirmed the worst suspicion of the ruling party about a supposed conspirational nexus between the President and the CJ against the PM. Signatures were gathered by the faithful in the evening session of Thursday 20 Nov so that the condition of 50% of members giving the impeachment notice was easily reached. Some signed the petition with a heavy heart, not fully subscribing to the idea of a Presidential conspiracy but they went along out of sheer loyalty to the PM.
Whether the Presidency gave an SOS for help or Pindi decided on its own that the brinkmanship was rapidly getting out of control is at best conjecture. While the nation waited with bated breath, the process of the impeachment motion was suspended minutes before it was moved. Next morning on Friday the quid pro quo was confirmed when the hearing for the Contempt Case was put off till 28 Nov instead of the day to day hearings going on uptil then, the nation breathed with some relief. To signify that the truce was holding, the high pitch of rhetoric subsided almost completely. When the request for immediate suspension of the 13th Amendment was denied by the CJ, the worst fears of the ruling Party that the President could use the temporarily restored Article 52 (2) (b) to dissolve the Assemblies dissipated, at least for the time being. The palpable tension paralysing Pakistan subsided.
But the problem is not over. A solution has to be found that will be lasting or we will lurch into another crisis come Friday. More important a permanent mechanism has to be found that is not ad hoc in nature and puts the onus of all risks on the shoulders of the COAS. On Thursday evening the opportunity to intervene physically was offered to the Army on a platter, that the Army did not reflect the maturity in its present hierarchical level. Unfortunately ambition-factor depends very much upon individuals and personalities thereof and the nation may not be so lucky in the future. At least three souls further down the pecking order would have been on Radio and TV doing the “Aziz Hum-watno” act like a shot, can we risk Bonapartism because of the ad hoc nature of our fail-safe mechanism? At the same time, is it fair to keep on asking the COAS to act as an “umpire”, and under what constitutional authority? All those gleefully looking forward to the Army to step in actively are now among the first to start the rumours as to the legality of the Army Chief advising elected representatives restraint and caution, will active vilification be far behind? Why should the Army be expected to pull the politicians’ chestnuts out of the fire and then to be roasted over the same fire? Did not Telemachus die trying to separate warriors in the Roman Coliseum? What a coincidence that Shamsher (1964 batch CSP) and Sherdil (1964 batch CSP) are respectively Principal Advisors to the President (1964 batch CSP) and the PM (no batch of CSP). Take one guess as to who do you think is the odd man out as far as loyalty is concerned? An excellent person and a superb bureaucrat, should Sherdil be trusted to give sane counsel at ground zero in the PM’s nerve centre? Some of the more hawkish moves, including the postponed PM speech, have been on his advice. Could the “opposing” bureaucrats have acted in concert to create a situation to viz (1) “downsize” the PM because of his penchant to go after inherent bureaucratic corruption (2) invite Army action to sort out the politicians and (3) then while secretly vilifying the Army, manage a Ghulam Ishaq-type rule over this nation, their 1964 batch-mate already being in the chair? Who were the real rulers during Ayub, Yahya and Zia’s time? All this could conveniently be initiated without Leghari’s knowledge, at least till he had no choice but to go along or become history.
My friend, Federal Minister Mushahid Hussain, has ruled out bringing out the Council for Defence and National Security (CDNS) out of the closet where it has been confined after notification. With a CDNS-type forum in place, the country need not have been pushed into the crisis that it is even now immersed in. Before we got into a rapid escalation, a CDNS meeting would have given a chance for sanity to prevail. Rather than the entire burden being put on the COAS in an extra-constitutional unofficial role, it gives the Service Chiefs a collective responsibility in an authorised forum to ensure sanity. The President remains aggrieved because an attempt for his impeachment had been set in motion, on the other hand the PM suspects that it was Leghari’s fine hand egging on the CJ. Where else could the two sit and in the presence of impartial referees sort out the crisis to take this country out of paralysis? If monthly salaries are not available to be paid, a la Russia, because of the worsening economic situation, then we will see bloody anarchy instead. The PM should advise the President that a meeting of the CDNS should be convened immediately to find an equitable solution for the present impasse. The President and the PM must certainly begin a one-on-one series of confidence building conversations, let the stage be first set by the interlocutors to define the agenda under the cover of a legitimate forum. Mushahid’s public statements are his prerogative as a politician, hopefully he gives sane advice to the PM in private.
And not to forget the CJ. No doubt contempt was committed on the way to acceding to his request for the elevation of 5 judges. As any responsible citizen, he must be as anxious about the prevailing situation (economic including), but he has a proven track record of staying with his own convictions. Come what may, he will not budge from what he believes to be correct, he obviously goes by the Latin adage, “let justice be done though the heavens fall”, or a better version of it by Ferdinand I, the Holy Roman Emperor (1503-1568), “Let justice be done, though the world perish”. We may get frustrated by such an attitude but we must respect it because justice should never be swayed by extraneous circumstances (except maybe compassionate ones and that also very rarely). Give the man his apology as he wants it and promise him a couple of heads on a pike, on or before Friday. The CJ has always been a personable, reasonable man, why are we persisting in dealing with the stiffer side of his personality and character? The CJ does not have a track record of convicting anybody for the sake of conviction, he seems to be more interested in restoring the credibility and moral authority of the SC. Let the PM deliver a “Dil se Afsos” in the language that the CJ “understands and acknowledges as correct” and get on with the business of governance. God knows this country needs to get out of this political and economic limbo!
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