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The reverse trap-II

Consider this for a Rubic’s Cube Northern warlord Rashid Dostum is ousted by his erstwhile No. 2, Lieut General Abdul Malik, officially Director Foreign Affairs Directorate, Jumbish Militia, who ostensibly defects to the Taliban and invites them to the Uzbek Capital, Mazar-i-Sharif. The Taliban race to the city and set about trying to enforce their edicts on a very reluctant Uzbek population. When elements of the Shia Wahdat refuse to surrender their weapons and on the contrary kill some Taliban, forces are sent in to flush them out of their stronghold within the city. Outraged Jumbish Milli, Malik’s Uzbek militia, already smarting under orders to surrender their weapons, then attack the Taliban forces from all sides within the city and proceed to decimate the force, the most resounding setback forced by the Taliban by far. Coincidentally and almost simultaneously, Ahmad Shah Masood appears from his Panjsheer stronghold and closes down the Salang Tunnel and thus interdicts the Taliban Lines of Communications (L of Cs). For good measure he also takes Jabal Seraj, a key town on the road from Kabul to the Mazar-i-Sharif. For their part, the Shia Wahdat isolate the Taliban at Pol-i-Khumri and the other elements of the Anti-Taliban alliance take over Golbahar, both important towns on the L of C. While we would like to believe that all this was an amazing coincidence, the presence of Malik, a known former KGB operative, who on available evidence at hand still takes orders from the Russians, makes it more plausible a “reverse trap” into which the Taliban are led by their nose. The Taliban delegation headed by Mullah Ghaus, the Afghan foreign minister who along with the designated Taliban commander for the North-West, Abdul Razzak, had gone to Mazar-i-Sharif on the invitation of Malik for parleys, have been taken as hostages and remain Malik’s prisoners.

Rashid Dostum was the gregarious human face that controlled the mercenary Uzbek militia formed by the Russians to fight the Afghan Mujahideen. At an appropriate moment he switched sides to the Tajik Chieftain Ahmed Shah Masood, this led to an eventual coalition of Tajik and Uzbek-led by Burhanuddin Rabbani as the Afghan President. With Rabbani trying to unify the Afghans, the Uzbek found themselves sidelined and again switched sides into an anti-Rabbani front along with sworn Ahmad Shah Masood-enemy, Gulbadin Hekmatyar. However the Taliban phenomenon threatened the way of life of all the Afghan Mujahideen Chieftain and forced an evacuation of Kabul by Rabbani and Masood, with Hekmatyar joining them in an anti-Taliban alliance that kept the Taliban south of the Salang Tunnel. Within 72 hours of switching to the Taliban, the Uzbek militia now led by Malik, turned the clock back again and are cooperating with Masood again, Hikmatyar’s preferences are still unclear.
This is not the first time Malik has been involved in a “reverse trap”. In 1994, he created suspicion in the minds of Pakistani diplomats about Rabbani’s coziness with the Indians leading to complete breakdown of Pak-Afghan relations. With Ahmed Shah Masood harbouring an old hatred for Pakistan because of our perceived support to Hekmatyar, the misgivings were easy to foment, the beneficiary being mercenary Dostum. On July 12, 1994, almost three years to the day, I had the privilege of writing “THE REVERSE TRAP” for THE NATION, to quote “Our Foreign Office either does not seems to be aware of the true credentials of Malik or seems to be deliberately ignoring it. Uzbek Malik is the right hand man of Rashid Dostum, head of Jumbishi Milli and a step-brother of Rasul Pahalwan, the warlord of Faryab Province, adjacent to Turkmenistan. He resides mostly in Termez in Uzbekistan where he has two houses, one of them still guarded by the Russian KGB. Malik was trained by KGB in the initial days of Afghan Jehad and since then has been working for them. On behalf of Dostum he also maintains close contacts with Indian intelligence, visiting India a number of times. KGB has a permanent presence in Termez from where they plan, direct and control all operations of Rashid Dostum. Earlier, continuous logistical support was also provided to Dostum through Termez but Islam Karimov, President of Uzbekistan, who does not see eye to eye with Dostum, put a stop to this when Rabbani’s government complained to Uzbekistan about providing military assistance to Dostum. This seems to have been inspired by KGB which has a direct role in such affairs as Malik takes all his directions from Moscow. The rumour (sic about Indian patronage) is meant to spoil Pak-Afghan relations further. The timing is also very pertinent as it was released at a time when our Foreign Minister. Sardar Aseff Ali, was due in Moscow and our relations with Afghan government were fast deteriorating. Dostum has now successfully changed sides three times and will do so again if it suits him. In the meantime, he has cleverly exploited Pakistan’s aversion to Indian involvement. By feeding on Pakistan’s fears, he is trying to shift suspicions of his involvement with the Indians away from himself while creating a lasting problem between the various Mujahideen factions and Pakistan. In fact, it is Dostum who has close ties with India and who is using this canard to cause a deep psychological rift between the allies of yesteryear. Pakistan would do well not to fall into this KGB and RAW-created “reverse” trap. This can only be done by employing Pakistani field veterans of the Afghan war. They are the only ones left with any credibility with the Afghan leaders. We must bring them out of the cold in the greater interest of this country” unquote. It is amazing that despite this rather common intelligence, nobody seems to have briefed the Taliban that they were about to become pawns in a bigger game by Malik, who used them as a bogey to oust Dostum and then turned against the limited Taliban contingent. While the fate of Mullah Ghaus and Razzak is still uncertain, Shah Beg, an important personality of the area, who was also called by Malik for a conference to Mazar-i-Sharif died mysteriously in a purported helicopter accident on his way back. In short, Malik is lethal to friend and foe alike and the Taliban should have been advised not to lead with their chin.

While mercenaries like Malik can never be part of any future permanent set-up, it is very unlikely that the Taliban can maintain any measure of authority over the Uzbek and Tajik in the north-west except on a proforma basis unless they resort to a “scorched-earth” policy and then there would be nobody left to rule. The Shia Wahdat also need a safe sanctuary under the Afghan sun, Iran must be placated or else this will remain an area of destabilization. A pragmatic policy would be for the Taliban to discuss some sort of an autonomous arrangement for the North-West within Afghanistan otherwise Russia and the CARs with the tacit cooperation of Iran may well turn the North-West into an independent republic that will act as a buffer between Russia the CARs and the Taliban. The reverses on the battlefield are eventually good for the Taliban, it is part of their education in a pragmatic 20th century world where compromise is as much an integral part of the game of nations as it was fourteen centuries ago.

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