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Handle Kashmir with care

Several days ago the President of Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Sardar Sikander Hayat Khan, resigned his office a few months before his term expired. By the terms of the AJK Constitution, a new President has to be voted for by the AJK Assembly within 30 days, to that effect the date of Wednesday May 22, 1996 has been stipulated for the Presidential Elections. While the AJK President set in motion a chain of events which can blow up into an embarrassing Constitutional crisis, the first shots were actually fired by the Government of Pakistan (GOP) or more particularly, its political ally the PML (J), when they influenced a few members of AJK PM Sardar Qayyum Khan’s AJK Muslim Conference (AJKMC) to change their loyalties. Incidentally these were representative of the seats of Kashmir refugees settled in Pakistan, as such more prone to electoral interference than the constituencies within AJK, i.e. if such an exercise was under contemplation.

For his part, Sardar Shaukat Hayat Khan maintains that he did not consult his party colleague Sardar Qayyum Khan, the AJK Prime Minister and thus nominally his junior in the party structure (but in fact the party boss), about his rather sudden decision. This should be taken with a pinch of salt. Since the AJK Assembly’s political life was due to expire shortly, the resignation of the AJK President means that the old Assembly, where despite the defections, the Muslim Conference can still elect their nominee as President, would choose the new President-elect for five years. Logically this would not be fair as this should be the prerogative of the new Assembly. With a PPP Government in power in Pakistan, the AJKMC could not be so sure about the result of the General Elections and they probably resorted to this stratagem to frustrate PPP’s aspirations. President AJK is a largely symbolic post without the powers under the 8th Amendment that the President of Pakistan enjoys, despite repeated claims by President Farooq Leghari that he does not like them. As such the resignation of the AJK President at this stage would seem a clinically perfected cynical ploy by the superb politician that Sardar Qayyum is to either (1) get political advantage pre-elections by having a President (belonging to AJKMC) already elected for five years (2) block further moves by the PPP regime in power in Pakistan from attempting to shift the loyalties of more AJKMC legislators and (3) frustrate possible moves by GOP to influence the vote in the forthcoming AJK General Elections.

All this is taking place when Pakistan would require world media attention to be focussed on Indian Occupied Kashmir. After many years of direct Presidential rule through an appointed Governor and increasingly hostile world media attention, India wants to show that democracy is well and alive in Kashmir. As such even though the General Elections are over in India, an attempt is going to be made to hold polls on May 23 in the Valley for four seats. The portents for this are not good as the protesting Kashmiris have announced a boycott and except for some “Quislings” hardly anyone will be casting his/her vote. The bureaucrats appointed as polling officials are already on strike at the call of the Kashmiri people and what is likely is a farce “of stuffing ballots in Delhi and transporting them to Srinagar” as explicitly and undiplomatically stated by our High Commissioner in Delhi, Mr Riaz Khokhar, who took a calculated risk in almost being made persona non grata by putting India on the defensive. By going on a well dramatised media offensive and with the right timing, he seems to have weathered the resulting uproar within India. That was the Congress Government, what the BJP does within its 14 days to him is another story.

Pakistan’s position with respect to Indian Occupied Kashmir has widely improved over the past six months. Most of this is due to focussing of public attention on the ham-handed atrocities of the Indian Occupation forces, particularly in the killing of known human right activists, etc. With General Elections repeatedly postponed and the militants getting increasing support by peaceful protests from across the broad spectrum of the Kashmiri masses, the Indian Government has been under increasing world pressure. In Pakistan itself with the welcome long-awaited sweeping change in the ISI’s management team and their replacement by faceless and dedicated professionals more concerned with their mission rather than their own ego and image as was the wont of their predecessors, there has been a qualitative improvement in our Kashmir stance. Very quietly and unobtrusively, as an intelligent head should behave, Lt Gen Nasim Rana has taken ISI off the media firing line to actually doing what they were loudly trumpeting but failing to do in the past. With a concerted media campaign, a situation favourable to Pakistan’s case has been created that was not availing for the past several years and it would be criminal not to exploit it for the benefit of the long-suffering Kashmiris.

With the non-polls in Held Kashmir stated for May 23, the Presidential polls stated for AJK on May 22 could result in absolute confusion that would be detrimental to Pakistan’s interest if immediate steps are not taken to de-escalate the situation. Sardar Abdul Qayyum Khan is a wily politician who stands heads and shoulders over anyone in Pakistan or AJK today, particularly in war-gaming political moves to the detriment of his detractors. Despite his proforma denials, one would not have put it past him to get his timing right in countering GOP’s moves to destabilise his administration ahead of the AJK General Elections. A superb practitioner of the art of compromise in politics, Sardar Qayyum has now manoeuvred himself into a no-lose position as opposed to those opposing him who are in a no-win position. It is believed that those in discussion with him from GOP’s side have been trying to get back the initiative by proposing Sardar Qayyum replace Sardar Shaukat Hayat Khan as the acceptable (to all) nominee for the AJK Presidential candidacy. While this is a brilliant ploy as it will make Sardar Qayyum as the largely symbolic President who is a non-entity in the ensuing elections, the outstanding politician that the Sardar is, he is not likely to fall for such an obvious strategic move by the PPP regime led by their A Team negotiator, Ijlal Haider Zaidi. Sardar Sahib has no intentions of becoming a toothless tiger. In the circumstances, we have a Catch-22 situation for GOP at a most awkward moment of time. When all our energies should be focussed on the attempted May 23 elections in Held Kashmir, we may have a potential public relations disaster of our own on our hands, mostly of our own making.

In the wider interest of Kashmir and Kashmiris, GOP has to be pragmatic about its decision. At the moment it has to accept that it tried to destabilize the AJK Premier and has been outsmarted and out-manoeuvred. One would tend to agree that Sardar Shaukat Hayat Khan as the AJK President for another five years is a bitter pill to swallow but in the circumstances we have to smile and go ahead with it for the sake of the poor suffering people of Kashmir. While the PPP cohorts are all gung-ho about toppling the AJK Premier, let it be by pure Constitutional means rather than aping the same extra constitutional measures that India is applying, albeit very violently in contrast to ours. At the same time there cannot be a more articulate and credible advocate of the Kashmir cause than Sardar Qayyum. In the national interest GOP has to persist with him. For Pakistan’s case there is nothing better than an election be attempted in the Muslim majority areas of Held Kashmir under the tutelage of the virulently Hindu nationalist BJP Government (albeit in charge only for the next fortnight). This is a PR dream made in media heaven that literally cries out for world attention, anything attempted without care in AJK which will only sidetrack this PR disaster for India. In the end, the only pressures that the Indians will listen to will be a combination of (1) the drumbeat of the guns of Kashmiris freedom fighters and (2) world diplomatic pressure on them to resolve the Kashmir situation.

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