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A crossroads in friendship

Except for Russia and France, every Permanent Member of the UN Security Council has an important delegation visiting Pakistan this week. The first to arrive was Gen. Fu Quanyou, Member Chinese Military Commission and Chief of General Logistics of the Peoples Liberation Army, the next was Mr. Douglas Hurd, the British Foreign Secretary, following by US Defence Secretary, Mr. Perry. For good measure, even Japan has sent its Minister for International Trade and Industry (MITI) Mr. Ryutaro Hashimoto, leader of a faction of his party. This week is thus witness to an amazing confluence of visitors, ostensibly for varied bilateral reasons. Of these the most important is the high level US Defence team led by the US Defence Secretary. Seen in the context of a coincidental Japanese presence, with their known views of nuclear proliferation, the logical conclusion is that some diplomatic arm-twisting seems to be in the offing to get Pakistan to put ink to paper on the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Gen. Fu Quanyou is the odd man out in this exercise and he seems to be given only passing attention from Pakistani powers-that-be despite the fact that the Chinese are the only ones we can really depend upon for help come rain, shine, sleet or snow. In Pakistan today, we put more trust in perception than actual facts despite our experience in these matters during times of crisis.

If anything, late Gen. Zia will be known to posterity as the Pakistani leader who became the western bulwark against expanding Soviet hegemony. Even Ms. Benazir now tacitly accepts (David Frost’s interview) that it was Pakistan’s resolute stand in the 80s vis-a-vis Afghanistan that saw the demise of the Soviet Union. However Zia made a colossal blunder in not insisting on not getting prior US agreement for some issues important to Pakistan, viz. (1) US acceptance that in the presence of Indian nuclear capability we had a right of self-defence in seeking to establish a nuclear deterrent (2) instead of military and economic aid, our cotton made-up derivative quotas should have been brought on par to Hong Kong, etc so that rather than relying on alms the rejuvenation of our cotton-based economy could have paid for our requirements, both military and economic (3) keeping in view the massive move of stores and supplies, logistical routes, both by rail and road to Peshawar and Quetta, should have been modernised at western expense (4) the Armed Forces should have been modernised along the lines done for the Egyptian Armed Forces with in-country factories for aircraft, tank, armoured vehicles, etc (5) long-term US investment should have been ushered in to the energy sector, particularly in hydel power and (6) US-led western pressure could have been applied on India to solve the Kashmir problem. At that time, with the prospect of Vietnamising Afghanistan, the US would have then signed on the dotted line. What we actually got, other than covert aid funnelled to the Afghan Mujahideen, were a few squadrons of F-16s, frigates on lease (since returned) and a few miscellaneous defence items, in retrospect we were had! We did inherit some (suddenly) very rich senior defence personnel, whose scions have difficulty in explaining where the money largesse came from and why it descended upon them in exclusion to the 120 million other people in Pakistan, mostly in varying degrees of impoverishment. We were consigned to be manipulated (in collaboration with our military-industrial bureaucrats) corporate-wise by the likes of Ray Guerin and his cluster-bomb making International Signal Company (ISC), exceeded only recently by the epoch-making scam that Gordon Wu and his Hopewell Holdings are attempting to perpetrate on Pakistan with their so-called US$ 7 billion investment in a coal-based power station.

Given that such opportunities in history are seldom repeated, the fact remains that given our present geographical existence, we sit at an important geo-political crossroads where we are part of (1) the Middle East (2) South Asia and most importantly (3) Central Asia, the future economic frontier for western exploitation, for which we remain the most natural conduit. Similarly, our Islamic colour is that of caution, albeit sporadically strewn with fundamentalism, therefore we remain as an island of moderation. While modernity and development are certainly required by us, it is of vital US and western interest to ensure a strong, stable and moderate Pakistan. With Russia rapidly sliding back to Soviet-style repression after a very brief flirtation with democracy, how long before the likes of Zhironovsky look south again to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean?. Despite the fact that 150 years after Imam Shamyl, the Russians are having the same trouble with the Chechnyans, quote “Thus the Tzar’s muskets were met with the sabres of Paradise”, unquote (Lesley Blanch “The Sabres of Paradise”), they will one day look beyond what they call their “near abroad” (the Central Asian Republics). On that day, the US and other western countries would do well to remember what Chou En Lai told Kissinger during the first US-Chinese major contact in 1971 about Pakistan, “do not forget the bridge you have come across, you may have to use it again”, unquote.

Our major problems with US are (1) nuclear (and now missile) proliferation as well as (2) drug smuggling. The major pre-occupation of the US remains our nuclear capability wherein the Pressler Amendment, a device meant to help the US Administration circumvent US Congress and get aid in the 80s (when the US needed us badly), was conveniently turned against us when the US no longer needed us as a frontline State in the face of a disintegrating Soviet Union. Given that the US is globally concerned with the nuclear issue, we in Pakistan require to have our own security shield as a deterrent against a militarily overwhelmingly superior (in numbers) India, which does not only have nuclear devices but also possesses missiles which can deliver them at will to all our urban areas. India’s track record with its neighbours is atrocious, in a remarkable display of blatancy its terrorism arm RAW does not even bother to hide their evil intentions anymore despite the fact that most of their operations have boomeranged on them e.g. the creation of Bhindranawale, who turned on them leading to Operation Blue Star and the ultimate death of Mrs. Indira Gandhi, the training and arming of Tamil Tigers who also went “Bolshie” and assassinated Rajiv Gandhi, etc. After World War II, India is the only country to have invaded and annexed real estate e.,g. Hyderabad, Junagadh and Manawadar, Kashmir, Goa, Pondicherrry, Sikkim etc. Why has India got a problem with all its neighbours and in contrast why do the neighbours have no problems between themselves? Why does India need a blue-water Navy, missiles and nuclear armament, etc? In such circumstances, to sign the NPT unilaterally in the absence of a linkage to the solution of Kashmir and an effective conventional military deterrent would be criminally insane. As it is we have managed to surrender many advantages e.g. the Sikh factor, unilateral nuclear capping, etc, for reasons as yet unknown. In the light of the damage to our national security already caused, no responsible Government of Pakistan can give any more “concessions” without seriously further undermining national security.

For the foreseeable future the US remains the only Superpower, for that reason alone it makes sense for us to bring to focus that their vision of what democracy and freedom stand for coincides with ours and this region can only be safeguarded if Pakistan remains an island of stability. If for any reason, Pakistan is Balkanized or goes down in flames because of a lack of addressing our genuine security requirements, there would be a Domino effect in the whole region. For the Government of Pakistan, it is imperative that we express our concerns to our friends in a rational, lucid but firm manner, but without any ambiguity. As for the US, they would do well to remember the Chinese proverb, “do not use a hatchet to remove a fly from a friend’s forehead”.

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