Geo-political spectrum The importance of reliable allies
We are a people of extremes, if we do not like somebody, we truly hate him, on the other hand we cannot find fault with those whom we like, objectivity is for the birds. George Washington, in his farewell address, cautioned the US of A against “making inveterate enemies or inveterate foes” in its policies towards nations. Today’s evolving world situation shows that 200 years later, this remains true. In the civilized world (or should one say, the organised world), there is a fine line defining the difference between friend and foe, on an individual basis on the social circuit one can never find out because almost everyone hates everyone, some because of jealousy and peevishness, some through sheer churlishness, most because of some reason, a minority because they simply love to hate. As a nation, Pakistan invariably gets a short end of the stick from friend and foe alike, barring off-course true friends like China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and despite our unforgivable lapses, Iran. One reason for our bad media attention has been continued antipathy towards Israel because of our sympathies for the Palestinian cause, Yasser Arafat has recently been indicating his feelings for our sensitivities regarding Kashmir by accepting the Nehru award from India, the actual ceremony happening even as a dozen or so Kashmiris were being felled by Indian bullets.
We are now gripped in the vortex of a major crisis, one which has not been of our making, Kashmir. The genuine home-grown revolt has set the Kashmir valley aflame, we find ourselves drawn deeper into the possibility of an unwanted armed conflict with India. With Vishwanath Pratap Singh, Prime Minister of India, flouting his manhood by sustained sabre rattling, we are increasingly seeing the escalation bearing towards a relevance to war. Prudence demands that we must resist any inclination to initiate hostilities, unfortunately the Indian PM has boxed himself into such a corner by his bellicose accusations against Pakistan that it will take a much greater man than him to resist the pressure of Indian public opinion (1) fed with the glories of the omnipotence of the Indian Armed Forces (2) getting increasingly frustrated with VP Singh for not “teaching” Pakistan a lesson. The Indian leadership has become a victim of its own great lie, with the situation within Kashmir made worse by Indian brutality, we may be forced into giving truth to that lie by cross-frontier help.
Which brings us to the point of having reliable allies in the face of impending hostilities, dependable “friend in need” types. On top of the list is the People’s Republic of China, our constant friend through thick and thin. The relationship is unreal, our country is based on religious ideology, China remains a communist bastion, modulated maybe into a Deng Tsao Peng-type of society, it is precisely our different systems that makes this friendship deeper in meaning, one that has stood through many adversities, through the test of time. At this time we will need not only material and moral help from China but some discreet sabre-rattling, better to rattle Indian Armed Forces planners with, so that a fair portion of their forces facing China remain fixed in place and cannot be re-located against Pakistan.
Next on the list comes Iran, our other great neighbour. Of all the Muslim (and other world) countries, Iran has been the most positive in support of the Kashmiris and the Pakistani position over Kashmir. The statements emanating from Iran are extremely satisfying for Pakistani morale because the moral help notwithstanding, the material aid offered and the principal conduit for transportation of war and economic material remains Iran. Iran has been a steady ally throughout our years of independence, while it is alienated from the USA (which has been our major benefactor during the Afghan crisis) for various reasons, there is no doubt that the current changing Middle East situation, particularly with Iraq flexing its military muscle, will see a re-emergence of pragmatic friendship between Iran and the US (and by extension the other western countries) to maintain the regional balance in the Middle East. Pakistan must do all in its power to create favourable conditions towards a US-Iran rapprochement sooner than later, Iran’s fundamentalism does not necessarily mean extremism towards others, for a start we can help dispel that adverse western media image. One has no doubt that Iran must have generously offered material help, we should be grateful for every ounce of that help, one day next time around that Iran needs any help, we shall not refrain from reciprocating in kind. Turkey has always stood by us shoulder to shoulder through every tribulation. Both Pakistan and Turkey use similar US-origin arms and equipment for the most part and in the past these have been generously transferred to us, perhaps a land/lease programme can start forthwith. The Turkish love for Pakistan is more than apparent, we share ideological views on everything under the sun, constant mutual good faith through the years has symbolized this relationship. While it is a long haul from Turkish ports, the Iran-Iraq war saw a supply line being established upto the Iranian front-line, it can be extended into Pakistan where Quetta must become a major logistical base for collection, sorting out and distribution of war and economic supplies. One great attribute of the Turkish nation is that it never succumbs to pressure from anyone, so it will not be thus inhibited nor incapacitated from giving us badly needed war material due to external pressure.
We badly needed a strong show of support from the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, King Fahd of Saudi Arabia, and one must congratulate Ms Benazir, during her recent Umra trip she seems to have accomplished that much and more. For us this was crucial for many reasons, not the least being the money and material support. Saudi Arabia carries a lot of clout not only with Muslim and Arab community of nations but also with major western and third world countries, their backing would tip overwhelming world support in our favour despite the effectiveness of Indian propaganda. The relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia has not been good at all, the Saudis have been supporting Iraq in the war against Iran, materially and morally, the fact that despite being aware of Iran’s backing to us they have opted to go all out for us is both satisfying and relieving. India has been trying to exploit their unfortunate differences to the hilt, the Indo-Arab Society in India has been staging noisy demonstrations in front of the Iranian Embassy in New Delhi. The Saudi support will solidify those among our friends who may have been wavering just a little bit, this include UAE, Bahrain and Oman where the governments are definitely in our favour but the large Indian expatriate presence exercises an undue influence which may try and affect our logistics pipeline by delays of various sorts and pretexts.
One nation that could positively influence to an extent any war with India is Bangladesh. While there won’t be an outpouring of overwhelming emotions for the Kashmiri cause, there is an abiding sympathy. The Bangladeshis have been on the receiving end of the short stick from India for almost two decades. Their natural inclinations will always be for Pakistan, real politik has modulated their policies to one of caution as they run the risk of continued and blatant interference from India, in a region without Pakistan, a strong anti-dote to India, the Bangladeshi will continue to suffer. Indeed glorified serfdom would be the fate of all South Asians, whether Muslim, Christians, Buddhists and even Hindus of low class (Shudras or Untouchables), all will be a dominated by the machinations of a small Brahmin coterie and their Quisling supporters. Bangladesh has six infantry divisions and then some. Arrayed against Bangladesh are three Indian Corps, 3rd, 4th and 33rd, one of the corps has shed two divisions already, one went straight from IPKF duties in Sri Lanka to East Punjab, the other has moved to Kashmir. The balance of Indian Forces are pivoted against China basically (most are mountain divisions) but can turn on Bangladesh. All the Indian major Communications centres in the Eastern region and routes are vulnerable to Bangladeshi interdiction, who need at maximum three, maybe four divisions to hold even a determined Indian onslaught, leaving at least two divisions plus to create mayhem in vital Indian territory at will. At the very least if Bangladesh can draw away 2-3 more Indian divisions away to the East without fighting a war, it will be enough, capture of Calcutta by them will be a bonus.
We have many more friends, some in the vicinity, some far away, some out of conviction and some out of their own interest. Going by Chanyakha’s policy “an enemy of an enemy is a friend”, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia are threatened by Indian blue-water aspirations, Indian pretensions as far away as Fiji has aroused apprehensions even in Australia. In South Asia, nobody hates the Indians as sincerely as the Sri Lankans, besides the Sinhalese majority this now includes the Tamil minority. While the African nations, other than Arab and Muslim will not make much difference, their neutrality will be more than welcome. One may indulge in wishful thinking about Russia’s drawing away from outright support India because of internal pre-occupations but the most profound change to Pakistan’s fortunes has been the change of guard in the whole of Eastern Europe, previously solidly pro-Indian. The new regimes are more than likely to be pro-Benazir. An era of cooperation between USA and USSR may see the pragmatic Gorbachev swaying away from the previous alliance with non-aligned India.
What about western support, particularly the US or UK, solidly behind us in the Afghanistan decade of the 80s, given that western Europe way remain neutral as will Japan? It is every nation’s right. While the BBC will never be pro-Pakistan because of the Indianized Mark Tully resident in New Delhi, Thatcher has never be enamoured with India, one hopes that she can ride out her bad patch. France’s Mitterrand symbolizes Western Europe attitude towards Pakistan, essentially Ms Benazir has weaned them away from India, even neutral we’ll be OK, if they take up cudgels on behalf of Kashmir, it will be a plus point. To those who fly off the handle decrying the US, the fact remains that they have given us tremendous material and moral support in the last decade, for whatever reason, the fact also remains that we would have been up the creek without that help. One should not be crass ingrates or hypocrites in not acknowledging that help. Vis-a-vis India, a lot of people have written off US support but that is not according to the factual position today. The US have refused to accept Indian claims of Pakistani intervention, at the same time it is committed to our independence as a cornerstone of their policy, one doubts that US policy would change overnight. Instead of decrying wrong perceptions, we must cultivate US support, it is vital for Kashmir’s freedom. The US of A is a country dedicated to the many freedoms of mankind, why should we not expect them to be sympathetic over Kashmir, Stephen Solarz notwithstanding? Whatever may be the norms of diplomatic caution, one cannot see the US abandoning Pakistan for India, even its neutrality will be one-sided in our favour. At the same time, Ms Benazir enjoys admiration and adulation among the US public, the underdog status in a war with India is the icing on the cake. We must ensure that (1) US continues its flow of arms and equipment to us and if not (2) does not deter our close allies from doing so.
While we must try and avoid war for all the right reasons, we must plan for the eventuality that India will attack us sooner than later. To that end it brings necessary to bring our allies into the present focus of things so that we are not caught unawares.
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