• Home
• Video
• Books by Ikram Sehgal
• About

Threat to Pakistan’s security

Pakistan resembles an aircraft carrier in the sea of vast Asia, a bridge between the Near and Middle East. Our foreign policy stance arouses exasperation among Superpowers who recognize that Pakistan is ideally placed geo-politically as a springboard for interdiction in the region. As the only nation other than Israel owing its raison d’etre for existence to ideology, Pakistan has itself become a fertile ground for interference. As a stumbling block to the Indian Grand Design for regional hegemony, this nation is the rock on which Indian dreams have been frustrated. As the front line nation of the free world against Soviet incursion in Afghanistan in the 80s, we are now witness to a total turnaround within one year in esteem we enjoyed in the free world and are now subject to vilification on any number of issues, whether it be suspected nuclear activity, as a conduit for drugs smuggling and as the natural home for BCCI, the most vilified financial institution in history.

When studying threat perception, one has to analyse those major areas, where we are vulnerable and which may affect us.

ECONOMIC SITUATION
Economically speaking, we are an extremely vibrant nation. We have suffered from years of bad planning and bureaucratic neglect that have hamstrung our economy despite the fact that we have no dearth of resources. Pakistan is one of the few countries in the world that is self-sufficient in foodgrains, unfortunately smuggling to adjacent regions depletes our food reserves causing us to become a net importer. As regards our fuel needs, we are more than self-sufficient for thirty years into the future because of proven gas reserves and are regularly finding oil wells in the areas where oil and gas exploration had been unsuccessful twenty five years ago. Our refining capacity has been increasing commensurately over the years and further expansion is taking into account that our petroleum requirements are met upto 30% through indigenous sources. The present policy of deregulation by the Government of Pakistan (GOP) will go a long way in opening up the economy so that its full potential can be exploited. Successive Federal Governments have shown their commitment to denationalisation and disinvestment, the pace and method of privatisation is now a subject of intense debate within the country. However, we are still heavily dependant upon imports for a wide range of our necessities and do not have in-built reserve stocks necessary for a long drawn out period of hostilities. Dependant upon a tenuous sea-link we need to develop our land routes so that our logistics and supply position is improved.

Due to connivance of unscrupulous elements within our Establishment we have suffered a great deal in our Barter trade at the hands of COMECON countries, Finland and Sweden, who have used us to convert their own requirements into hard currency at our economic cost, at the same time they have managed quite a foothold within our important Ministries at the clerical level making these vulnerable to designs of anti-State forces. Economic subversion is the surest way of bringing a country to its knees without having to fight a war. In this respect, if control of key disciplines such financial institutions, telecommunications, etc slips into the hands of anti-State forces during the privatisation process, it will be fatal for us. Money buys a lot of influence, once money buys its way into power, that power is force-multiplied and can be used in a manner to suit the intentions of those who acquire that power. We are better than most third world countries economically speaking but have disadvantages in relation to our most likely enemy, India, in respect of any future war. Since geographically we do not have depth our major lines of North-South communication are within reach of easy interdiction from the air. Having one port we may be subject to economic blockade, putting our capacity to wage a long war into question. As the Gulf War has shown, a concentration of economic targets in one location can be fatal. Any economic unit having any significance to the furtherance of military operations should be located as far to the west as possible and dispersed as well as can be. The urban population has to psychologically and materially prepare for privations, the recent Allied air offensive has shown that when energy and water sources are targeted, civilian morale in urban areas plummets rapidly, force-multiplied when food and medicine become scarce. While we are better off economically than what we were many years ago, we need to have a comprehensive review of a projected war economy and swiftly implement the recommendations of such an analysis.

POLITICAL SITUATION
After many years of authoritarian rule, it is understandable that democratic institutions have not yet taken root. While it may be true that there is still an element of political uncertainty, that is the democratic process and is really no cause for concern unless we slide into further political confusion. In the political vacuum that resulted in the years of restrictions, the democratic process came to a stop. With repeated elections, the uneven situation within the political country will soon stabilize and democracy will take hold in earnest. At this time there is polarisation between two major political groups, one composed of the coalition of forces of Right, Centre and Left which make up the IJI and a coalition of the Centre and Left parties which makes up the PDA. While the right to rule is dependant upon the will of the masses as exercised through their right to vote, the policies of both political groups are more or less the same, there being a broad consensus on issues that is pleasantly surprising. Without any doubt both groupings have the interests of the country at heart, to that end the country is well served politically despite apprehensions about the same. The point of differences arise on the priorities and emphasis on various issues, this creates confusion because the end-objectives being same the electorate cannot understand the bitter dimensions of the personality differences. There is a need for establishing grass roots democracy at the local level and enhance the authority-quotient of elected representative at each tier up the ladder. There is no use having elected representatives when the authority to levy taxes, plan the use of funds collected and distribution thereof is an administrative rather than a political decision. The fundamental cause for our political problems is the unwillingness of the bureaucracy to allow political control over the distribution of government revenues and the lack of a direct relationship between the collection and distribution of revenues at the local level.

We are under great pressure in the field of international relations and at a most inopportune time. For the past decade, we have been the free world’s frontline. For all practical purposes we were firmly in the US camp and the recipient of large-scale US economic and military aid, the only others for such volume being Israel, Egypt and Turkey. While we maintained our third world and Muslim posture on most issues, our non-alignment status became suspect in the eyes of many countries that were normally supportive of us. On the issue of Afghanistan we got widespread support from all but the Socialist countries, we have lost out heavily on the Kashmir question because of our pre-occupation with Afghanistan, India has managed to change the stance of some of our friends away from a UN-sponsored Plebiscite. With Superpower friendship now becoming a reality and Afghanistan seen as an irritant rather than an issue, we are suddenly in danger of being cast in the outcast nation status. Isolation is not very becoming in the present circumstances. For the first time in over 40 years, the Kashmiris have taken up violent struggle to rid themselves of Indian tutelage, as the situation escalates and the winter season approaches, the chances of war will increase as India enlarges the conflict to ease the pressure. It is very necessary to ensure that world opinion is firmly on our side. As it is India has had some success in tarring and feathering us because of the internal situation inside Khalistan and Kashmir. While an independent course is always the best solution, real-politik dictates that we follow the most pragmatic policies in our inter-relationship with nations. Self-reliance may be a policy objective, emotions cannot dictate it as a wise course at the present. We are at a crossroads of sorts in our relationship with the US. Because USA is a democracy and the Indian lobby led by US Representative Stephen Solarz is exceedingly influential, it has effectively blocked continued US economic and military aid. While that may not be bad enough by itself the perception of the US shifting its previously pro-Pakistan/neutral policy in favour of a pro-Indian stance is likely to become a grievous problem for us. We must strive for some accommodation and reciprocation while strengthening our bonds with Iran and China, our two most reliable friends in times of need. It is in our utmost interest to stop the internecine quarrel among the Afghan Mujahideen and bring the Afghan war to a swift conclusion. At this time our foreign policy is our most vulnerable priority area in the anticipated threat perception to our security.

MILITARY SITUATION
As the guerilla war in Kashmir intensifies with commensurate increase in Indian repression we see ourselves drawn exonerably into another war with India. Luckily for us the war in Afghanistan has wound down to a bloody stalemate and with the Soviet exodus has lessened tensions on our north-western borders. Because of a two-front situation in the 80s we had to build up our western defences and to position the Army’s Reserves centrally. Freeing of our western restraints has changed the concept of a future war with India insofar we have reserves now available in two tiers, firstly to blunt the enemy’s offensive and secondly to launch limited offensives to destroy the enemy’s capacity to wage war.

Our weaknesses are rather apparent, the major ones is because of the internal Sindh law and order situation and the concentration of large Indian forces in the Rajasthan desert. To compound it India has a vast blue-water including aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines, augmenting a large surface battle fleet. This is a small but dedicated Pakistani naval force backed up by PAF aircraft armed with Exocets. In an event of war, the Pakistan coastline may witness sporadic forays by the Indian Navy but the major battle fleet will have to stand off out of the range of our shore based aircraft and submarine fleet and resort to enforcing a blockade only. In a short war of between 60-90 days, this will not affect us, beyond that period our supply position will require replenishment by sea unless Iran is able to organise constant truck convoys into Pakistan. Much will depend upon the battle for air superiority, hopes are resplendent in the PAF that they will achieve air domination despite their small numbers because of their qualitative edge. The numerical superiority of the Indian Air Force may mean raids on civilian targets under the guise of attacking economic targets, the aim being to put urban civilian morale under pressure. We must have civilian air defence programmes with strong emphasis on national motivation and the spirit of sacrifice. Our the battlefield itself, the Indian Air Force is not likely to achieve much because of our enhanced mobile ground air defences and intensive training thereof.
In the final analysis, while both PAF and Pakistan Navy are important players in any all-out war, the ultimate battle will be fought on the ground and the final arbiter of Pakistan’s continued independence and destiny will be the professionalism, motivation and sacrifice of the Pakistan Army. At this time, the ground situation is not unfavourable to Pakistan. With an escalating guerilla warfare inside Occupied Kashmir and an unending revolt in Indian Punjab for an independent Khalistan, the Indians will have problem in maintaining their Lines of Communication in the mountainous north and the plains of Punjab. Their favourable area of operations will be the Rajasthan Desert, threatening the region Rahimyar Khan to Ghotki in the Centre and Chor-Badin area in the South. To a great extent the area of operations was emulated in Ex-Zarb-i-Momin in late 1989 when fresh concepts and new equipment inducted over the last decade were listed to the full. One great factor that was noticed by all observers was the quiet self-confidence of all ranks in their own abilities as well as the absence of bookish military protocol or unnecessary bravado. While all Armed Forces must keep some sensitive areas away from prying eyes, what was on display was impressive, both in terms of men and material. The Close Air Support given by the PAF during the exercise said quite a great deal about Army-Air corporation. While clearly the Pakistani armour needs updating, the anti-armour defences of the units were adequate and the induction of the upgraded T69 tank quite visible. Two years hence the series production of Al-Khalids may make a difference. Unlike India, which has vastness in depth and can afford to exchange territory for time, we do not have that luxury and will have to fight for every inch of territory. The overall impression one has is that our defences in the North are adequate but we must put more effort in the Southern sector. We have a definite edge in the quality of our manpower from four star general downwards to the lowest jawan. The loyalty of the backbone of Indian Army, the Sikhs, has become a suspect quality, in contrast our rank and file remain extremely dedicated and well motivated.

CONCLUSION
In the changing geo-political circumstances there is an increased threat perception to Pakistan’s independence. While this may be a matter of continuing concern, the last three years have seen a subjective change in the professionalism of the Armed Forces, they are functioning as a well-oiled machine dedicated to their one aim, maintaining the independence and integrity of Pakistan. One does not see any likelihood of the threat perception lessening in the future, to that end more effort has to go in to upgrade the quality of both men and material to keep abreast of the changing times.

Did you enjoy this post? Why not leave a comment below and continue the conversation, or subscribe to my feed and get articles like this delivered automatically to your feed reader.