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Central Asia The great game continues!

The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979 set off a chain reaction that had a most unexpected backlash for the perpetrators, the disintegration of the Soviet empire. The solitary dishevelled Afghan armed with an obsolete Lee Enfield rifle symbolized the start of the resistance to the Soviets, by the end of the next decade he was still unkempt but now equipped with the ultimate in weaponry sophistication, a shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missile, the American-made Stinger, a perfect anti-dote to the marauding armoured HIND helicopters gunships that almost broke the back of the Afghan guerilla campaign. The human toll enacted by the Afghans was far less than that inflicted on them but along with economic mismanagement the cumulative effect snowballed into an unmitigated disaster for the communists. The US and Pakistani common aim was the expulsion of the Russian invaders, though striving for widely differing objectives. Having a predator Superpower on its doorstep declaring common cause with a traditional and implacable enemy on the eastern side was not exactly a comfortable sandwich for Pakistan, not the least of the problems being host to 3 million plus refugees. Since the Russians came perilously close to a region of vital US interest, the Middle East (plus its oil), the US saw a chance to reverse Vietnam on the Soviets, making them bleed militarily and economically by making Pakistan a conduit for material and moral aid to the Afghan resistance. By the end of the 80s decade, the Russians were wishing that they had never heard of Afghanistan and were only too happy to pull out, the Geneva Accords gave them a face-saving out. Within months thereafter, the Soviet Union entered a paroxysm of self-destruction, the major policy perceptions of the US and Pakistan, the nominal victors, became sharply divergent thereafter. Pakistan now sees Afghanistan as a historic stepping stone to the opening to Central Asia, western analysts perceive a feared Islamic resurgence change from a crescent of apprehension to almost a full moon of trouble.

The effervescent situation in the former Soviet Union has been made more complex because of the inadequacies of the controlled economy that relied mainly on centralized command-management. As the Unified (to use the Barcelona Olympics jargon) States has come asunder, the socialist concept has been woefully exposed as bankrupt in both ideas and capital. Except for Russia and Ukraine every other Republic is in a state of confused dependence on each other, survival depending almost wholly on foreign aid. The Central Asian States were kept backward quite deliberately as a part of Soviet State policy for over 70 years, the worst type of repression was let loose on Islam as a religion and the significant percentage of the population who practiced it, widespread migration to these territories by other races being encouraged to correct the ethnic balance in favour of Russians or their associate races. Despite their presently democratic credentials, those in power in the Republics are the old communist rulers in fresh nationalist garb, though lip-service is now given to Islam in keeping with the wishes of the masses. It must be said however that these leaders were really pragmatic, being always more nationalist than communist. Protestations to the contrary, the KGB is intact and functioning as efficiently as before. To effectively quarantine Central Asia, the borders have been taken over by Russian soldiers of the KGB and the Army, except for ethnic Russians no one is allowed easy access to either side. In our eagerness to accept the Russian embrace of democracy, we accept even cosmetic change in the old communist regime. Mikhail Gorbachev is a darling of the west, being hailed as a great harbinger for democracy and peace. This miraculous transformation into a Born-Again Mr Goody-Goody should be explained to the near and dear ones of the more than 4,000 dead and multiples thereof who were injured because of the Gorbachev – authorised KGB–Khad terrorist bombing campaign commencing 1985, particularly in Karachi (remember Empress Market) and Peshawar. This does not count the tens of thousands of casualties in cross-border attacks by Russian/Afghan aircraft and Scud missiles, directed mostly against urban areas and refugees camps rather than legitimate guerilla targets. The million Afghan dead within Afghanistan seems to have also been conveniently forgotten. Giving Gorbachev the Nobel Peace Prize was a hypocrisy, a sheer travesty of justice, the leopard does not change his spots overnight. Any leader who authorises terror against another state should be treated as a war criminal. While one has to deal with the old guard to usher in the State-to-State relationship that we desire so that the artificial barriers of ideology put up by communism are completely eradicated, we should exercise some caution in our race to embrace them wholeheartedly.

Of the various Central Asian States, three are quite important to Pakistan’s long-term interests, the order of priority being Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhastan. Turkmenia and Kirghizia hold a little less concern for us and Azerbaijan is really too far out of our orbit of interest and is of marginal concern. The Central Asian Republics were virtually slaves to mother Russia, with Ukraine and Georgia, Armenia and the Baltic Republics much higher in the pecking order. The controlled economy ensured that the incentives of the free enterprise system that fuels and force-multiplies growth in the economy did not exist. While the socialist system as a whole thus fell into decay, for the downstream Republics it spelled disaster. Fortunately, in most cases they are self-sufficient staple food-wise and have not felt the hunger crunch being presently faced by the Russians. Rich in mineral resources they are far less industrialized than the other CIS Republics, their socio-economic infrastructure being non-existent and where existent, in decay. Communism set out to equalize society, to eradicate the rich class and uplift the poor, to have a society of a mass upper middle class having jobs, good education, medical coverage, adequate food and housing, a good public transportation system etc. The system succeeded only in replacing the rich with a smaller privileged elite and drove the broad masses into unequalled poverty and hunger. Human frailty force-multiplied the aberrations of the socialist system and contributed to its decline. Nowhere was this seen to be more devastating effect than the Central Asian Republics of the former USSR.

Because of its vast mineral resources, the roof of the world has become a region of economic opportunity, a sort of a new frontier. Most of western and Russian attention is directed at Kazakhastan with its vast oil reserves and a high percentage of different nationalities in a comparatively small population, not to mention possessing the former Soviet Union’s strategic arsenal of land-based nuclear missiles. Western companies have committed multi-billions of dollars to an unparalleled oil and gas search, the developed countries are competing with each other to bring in rapid industrialisation, latent is the fear that anything less will lead to some sort of an Islamic resurgence and the only way to contain this “catastrophe” is to modernize society as soon as possible. In Uzbekistan, there is an uneasy consensus government, with Muslim factions resurgent. Islam Karimov has proved adroit in handling diverse groups and keeping them within the national mainstream. His strong card is that Tashkent is geographically important, being virtually the crossroads city of Asia. The situation is more complex in Tajikistan, the capital Dushanbe saw upheavals twice as pro and anti-government factions battled it out for control of the country’s prime institutions. The see-saw struggle has resulted in a tenuous coalition, where members of the old communist-party (under a revised name) and pro-Islamic parties are uneasy partners. The country’s four regions are evenly split into two sides, the schism a potential for exploitation by vested interests.

Among the Islamic nations vying for influence among the Central Asian Republics, Turkey’s interests extends primarily to Azarbaijan and Turkmenia but Turkic language is widely used in the other Republics also. Iran has been the prime mover involving the littoral states around the Caspian Sea in an association of sorts but its major interest is in the historical Khorasan area, the Shia population preponderately encompassing North Afghanistan as well as areas of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Pakistan’s primary sphere of concern are Uzbekistan and Tajikistan followed by Kazakhastan. Saudi Arabia has been funneling funds for uplift of the impoverished masses and as such is quietly building up its own influence in the whole region. There is a conflict of interest here because, except for Pakistan, the motive of the other nations is primarily political rather than commercial. In Pakistan’s case commerce is the driving force, being taken as the fabric to bind together ideological identity. That is not to say that some vision-inspired (but short-sighted) individuals are not seeking a much closer association. When nations are coming apart at the seams because of racial and ethnic diversity, it would be potential suicide to get involved in a closer relationship with societies which are inherently fractious. There is much to be gained instead by fostering a strong bedrock of a social, economic, political and ideological relationships that will forge a cohesiveness leading naturally to a closer association, albeit each nation jealously guarding its sovereignty and independence.

The prime motivating factor as well as catalyst must be economic. Western concerns about Islamic resurgence coinciding with that of India and Israel may lead to a clash of interests. While the western stance may not have deep ideological motivation, India and Israel have anti-Islamic policy as a part of their State philosophy. Islam reacts historically to interference or persecution, it is never the perpetrator per se, Jizya (or sword tax) was hardly ever imposed after Islam’s first century. In all Islam’s history there has been not one single pogrom or single-minded persecution of another religion or its individuals as a part of State policy. It is only when those perceived as non-Muslims claim Islam as their own religion that reaction has occurred. Can Christianity and Judaism boast the same record of tolerance as that of Islam?

In the meantime, the new frontier on the roof of the world has become a land of great opportunity for all and sundry. Rudyard Kipling’s Great Game continues!

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