• Home
• Video
• Books by Ikram Sehgal
• About

A crisis of confidence

When an unruly mob runs riot and the situation is declared “out of control” of the civilian law enforcement agencies by a civilian magistrate in an “Aid to Civil Power” situation, the use of force to maximum effect becomes obligatory, the clear orders to the army detachment in such a situation being not to inflict wounds but to “shoot to kill” individual targets specified by the officer commanding the sub-unit. If there is imminent danger of the rioting crowd surging over the picket line the troops may fire at will in self-defence, still using single shots rather than the automatic option. The best scenario is always a flag march (in vehicles) for a “show of force” to act as a deterrent, the logic being that once the shooting starts the effect of deterrence ceases. That is why once action is engaged, it is executed with maximum force in the shortest possible time. The “shoot to kill” orders may seem ruthless, in fact in a perverse analogy they are meant to save lives by preventing the situation from creeping into becoming an internecine conflict. The best example of this was illustrated in the swift, sharp action by the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) in Tiananmen Square in Beijing resulting in anything between 1,000 to 3,000 casualties. While this may be 1,000 to 3,000 casualties too many, if the situation had been allowed to go out of control, the resulting civil war could have led to millions dead and the entire country devastated. In balance, to preserve order and save lives, it is sometimes necessary to be seemingly ruthless.

The dilemma of the Federal Government is understandable. As a democracy they cannot seem to be subjecting their own electorate to ruthless suppression. If their present confusion is acute, the relative situation of Ms Benazir in 1990 was worse. Her power base being Sindh, she could hardly be expected to agree to a military operation that could alienate the maximum of her solid voting populace. Estranged from the MQM, her erstwhile partners in coalition at the beginning of her PM-ship, the Pucca Killa operation in Hyderabad in 1990 was mishandled by the local administration and smacked of vengeance. Her problem was inherent vacillation in putting her own house in order in Sindh, aggravated by the stories of obstruction by her then non-political husband as a behind-the-scenes Chief Minister. Posterity will record that there was no better occasion to settle Sindh’s political problems than during her tenure, she simply failed to capitalise on an overwhelming electoral mandate.

The present Federal Government does not have the same democratic advantage in coming to grips with the Sindh situation as the PPP had. Depending upon a disparate coalition, the Federal Government is more susceptible to political blackmail. As such, the reluctance to allow the use of force becomes understandable, particularly if the force used is likely to be impartial and affect the IJI’s coalition partners. The MQM rightfully fears for its militant wing if the military action to restore the rule of law takes place simultaneously in the urban and rural areas. While this may be welcomed with glee by those MQM opponents steam-rollered by the MQM democratic urban juggernaut, almost every political party has a militant wing likely to suffer the same consequences, particularly the JI, JUI and the PPI in the urban areas, the PPP and Jeay Sindh in the rural areas. As a democratic organisation with an excellent administrative record of socio-economic projects in the major urban areas of Sindh, the MQM hierarchy must take the long-term view that this may be a good time as any to shed its militant faction and absorb them in the MQM’s well-defined, well-organised democratic mainstream. There comes a time when guns must be melted down to become plough shares and planetary gears.

No government can survive if its credibility becomes subject to repeated censure. The confusion inherent in the handling of the present constitutional requirements erodes one’s confidence in the Federal Government’s ability for unified governance. While the PM moved belatedly to bring the chorus into line, his own lack of authority is becoming increasingly apparent as he faces the same situation as faced by two of his predecessors, Mohammad Khan Junejo and Ms Benazir. Their closest aides, members of the inner circle, were more interested in hearing the sound of their own rhetoric in pursuance of their own individual agendas than worry about the general good of the party and the leader that had brought them into the corridors of power. Rana Naeem, then Minister for State for Defence, signalled the death-knell of Junejo’s PM-ship by taking on the army hierarchy in the Ojhri camp issue, while Ms Benazir’s Minister for Law, Iftikhar Gilani, estranged the Army then with his shrill rhetoric over the enacting of Article 245 and continues to do so with a recent outburst in the National Assembly, lending credence to those clamouring for his head to be examined. The posture of Ms Benazir other close aide, Aitzaz Ahsan, is also not presently comforting for his friends (this scribe among them), he is an excellent lawyer and should know better than to keep slanging away at the Armed Forces. Aitzaz certainly does not belong to that group of his colleagues of whom it is said that if they had some more sense in them, they would have been half-wits! But seriously, if these are the considered views of Ms Benazir’s closest aides, it does not gel with her reported recent overtures to the Army’s hierarchy. Unless off course, she is simply playing games. Given the PPP’s track record that is a premise she will find difficult to overcome.

Giving allowance for the Federal Government’s reluctance to invoke Article 245 in the face of violent disagreement by its main coalition partner, the MQM, and thus risk seriously damaging the present democratic balance in the Province, for the Army to move under Article 147 would invite unmitigated disaster. Karachi’s Traffic Police have made millions in easy money over the past few days in the matter of tinted glasses, etc one can simply imagine the windfall for the corrupt among the local administration and police once criminals are apprehended by the Army and handed over to the police for persecution. During World War II, the police in Central India created the ingenious scam (among many others) of checking the length of the ears of mules (required for the war effort) and sparing them from being requisitioned for a monetary consideration. As it is, the delayed operation has meant that Defence Housing Authority and Gulshan-i-Iqbal in Karachi have become safe havens of sorts for an influx of dacoits and kidnappers from the interior, the Rest and Recreation (R and R) being complete with Star TV and dish antennas. The present IG Police Sindh, Mr Kamar Alam, is known for his honesty and integrity, a 1000% improvement over the last incumbent, a person who brought the office of the IG Police and the police profession to a depth of low not believed humanly possible. Mr Kamar Alam will require a super-human effort to bring back the reputation of the Sindh Police to even keel. With the credibility of the civilian law enforcement agencies open to question, what happens to the credibility of the Army if they have to depend upon the Sindh Police for the prosecution of those whom they apprehend?

While the military operation is meant to eradicate the separatists in Sindh as well as dacoits and kidnappers in the interior, the simultaneous operation in the urban areas is aimed at curbing the militancy (and diverse agenda and inclinations thereof) of political elements of all colours, the dacoits and kidnappers being a common objective in both cases. Ms Benazir’s PPP has trounced the Jeay Sindh (and others of the same ilk) in a democratic vote in Sindh twice in the last three years and the Government must not only take the PPP into confidence about the actions to be taken but make their part of the process by continuous dialogue, only by achieving national consensus, the democratic vehicle will keep moving forward. Military action is not an end by itself, it is only meant to free the populace from criminal intimidation by armed political elements, some of whom have turned their political militancy into criminal activity for easy profit for themselves. Even during the military action period, genuinely democratic elements must continue the process. The Army should be expected to move quickly and relentlessly in accomplishing their MISSION, returning thereafter to their barracks ASP.

Despite the difficult economic situation, the Federal Budget has not been as bad as could have been, to the credit of the Nawaz Sharif regime. Once the Budget is passed in Pakistan, historically the initiative for political games passes to the establishment, which then feels free to play ducks and drakes with the democratic government. Neither the military or the PPP should unwittingly become a part of this destabilization campaign. Some political and military forces must shun the well-known conspiracies of using one against the other in a permutation and combination game. The first item on the agenda of a genuine political dialogue, long on issues and short of rhetoric, would be to stop further vacillation in taking tough decisions, some of those being so obvious in the present situation that to state otherwise would be to shame basic intelligence. The burgeoning political tangle has created a crisis of confidence in the political leadership and the democratic structure may crumble, the long-term fallout being to inflict irretrievable damage to the integrity of the country.

The test of true political courage lies in the ability of facing upto home-truths even to the peril of one’s jobs. The lack of will in coming to grips with the obvious in Sindh will ultimately erode constitutional authority, Article 245 will then become another unfortunate footnote to history. The Army has to be scrupulously impartial in its dealings with the civil population, any hint of vested interest by any individual commander or sub-unit will be counter-productive. The finest administrator that Sindh ever had was Gen (Retd) Mohammad Iqbal Khan, former Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee. He was a tough, no-nonsense soldier but this was belied by his reputation for honesty, integrity and impartiality in the eyes of Sindhis of every background, this despite his martial law credentials. If the Army manages to create the same impartial environment, its action will be received with equanimity, the end result being to restore genuine democratic rule. The essence of military success to restore civilian fiat, therefore, lies in even-handed dispensation of justice to all concerned. Both the government and the Opposition must support impartial military moves, it is time for all Pakistani men and women of stature, credibility and ability to rise above themselves for the good of the country.

Did you enjoy this post? Why not leave a comment below and continue the conversation, or subscribe to my feed and get articles like this delivered automatically to your feed reader.