National government
The people have spoken, the people’s will must prevail, that is the essence of democracy. The IJI sweep of the Punjab may be stunning, but the portents of a PPP defeat was a foreseen and distinct possibility, the surprises being (1) that it came as a surprise to many neutral observers and (2) the extent of the Bhutto downfall. Flags and vociferous travelling circuses do not constitute a popular support, as seen in any modern-day election campaign, the USA and other western nations included.
Indian correspondent, Inder Malhotra when interviewed by the BBC in New Delhi on Oct 25, 1990, lamented that most Indians were very upset about Ms Benazir’s electoral fall because (1) their sympathies were with her and that (2) the people of India were apprehensive about the prospective IJI Government’s stance over Kashmir, Khalistan and Afghanistan. In a nutshell he described one of the main reasons for the crucial Punjab swing against Bhutto, the mass perception that she, despite shrill rhetoric on the electoral hustings, was “soft” on the Indians. Most armchair analysts rely on visible facts, they forget that deep emotions that made India India and Pakistan Pakistan persist. A misconceived sense of liberalism among certain elite circles in Pakistan accepts Indian whisky in Indian diplomatic parties while Muslim freedom fighters (and many bystander innocents) are regularly gunned down indiscriminately in Kashmir, in effect countenancing Indian atrocities. Inder Malhotra parroted Ms Benazir’s charges about rigging, he was “apprehensive that ISI had prevented the people in large numbers from voting”. Other than the major turnout witnessed on Election Day, the mind boggling logistics aspect of this exercise leaves one incredulous, one is grateful that the NDI delegation stated otherwise quite emphatically. Rajiv Gandhi’s vehement dismissal of the Kashmir problem while sitting next to Ms Benazir and her failure to give on the spot rebuttal got her into trouble with the voters in Pakistan, particularly Punjab.
The pro-Bhutto voter support has declined only in a few constituencies, has remained firm in most areas, even increasing in certain areas of Sindh. The IJI’s ONE on ONE strategy worked despite their own best efforts to scuttle it. The 38% support for PPP in 1988 increased to 39% in 1990 while 32% for IJI increased to 45% in 1990, mainly by the transfer of 12-15% of the balance 30% (in 1988) into an anti-Bhutto vote in 1990, enough for an unprecedented victory. The reasons (other than India) were very clear to impartial observers including (1) ability of IJI to organise itself in 1990 in contrast to 1988 (2) the debilitating Federal Government-Punjab confrontation (3) widespread reports about corruption, cronyism, horse-trading, etc followed by (4) the “kiss of death” suspension of US economic and military aid by USA. Ms Benazir benefited enormously on the other hand by (1) full repayment by the media for the freedom enjoyed by the Press for 20 months and (2) the ham-handed accountability process.
In the euphoria of victory, the IJI analysts must not detract from PPP’s demonstrated popular support (of 39%) though a greater number of people voted against her. The architect of Bhutto’s downfall, Nawaz Sharif, has also come of political age, in the process becoming a media star in his own right. One cautions, however, that there is still a split mandate and the rural areas of Sindh still remains aligned with the PPP, which in turn has again defeated the regional and separatist forces. It would be dangerous to ignore this. One would be stupid not to come to terms with the Sindh problem from a position of strength rather than the weakness of yesteryears. The effectiveness of Jam Sadiq as the Chief Minister of Sindh must be used in dismantling of the walls of ethnic polarisation, we must eradicate the ugly heads of separatists, terrorists and criminals without further delay. By opting for having her husband as the shadow CM and a Provincial Cabinet made up mostly of his cronies, Ms Benazir squandered her manifest goodwill at the altar of family convenience, botching up a golden chance of settling the Sindh problem by the force of her personality. Having virtually sacrificed her political assets (and party) for the sake of her husband, Ms Benazir must decide, does Pakistan matter to her more or not? There is a fail-safe point where one stops believing that a person is only dangerously naive.
The bitterness of the political campaign must be put behind us, the PPP leadership by exercising mature judgement in accepting the electoral verdict while refraining from getting their innocent but gullible activists killed in the streets. One must also remind the IJI leadership about a verse we used to be taught in school, “Set the cause above renown, love the game beyond the prize, honour while you strike him (her) down, the foe that comes with fearless eyes”. Mature leadership must shun peevish exultancy in favour of responsible magnanimity, healing wounds rather than exacerbating them. Mere rhetoric will not suffice, a nationalist approach taking into account the deep social and economic crisis we are faced with, must translate this pragmatism into functional reality.
When a political party does not have a majority, its efforts for a coalition have clear vested interest. By effectively shutting her MQM associates out of administration in 1988 the moment she had the necessary numbers in the National Assembly, Ms Benazir initiated an opportunistic political tendency that became the hallmark of her regime. One of the side effects of the complete IJI victory is that they do not need to buy up any votes or pander to “Special Interest Groups”, the Presidential Ordinance on “floor crossing” has reinforced this. This is a unique opportunity for our politicians to institutionalise democracy. From a position of electoral strength, IJI’s efforts to make a National Government will not be seen as a measure for convenience but will set a healthy precedent as a bipartisan approach for a practical solution of the country’s problems. The decisions taken in the next few days will decide what happens to the country in the future, we are at a critical crossroads in our history. By harnessing the disparate anti-Bhutto forces into one platform Nawaz Sharif has become the most potent political force in the country, most of what happens now will depend upon his political ambitions and personal decisions thereof.
Our biggest problem today is the economy which has been further exacerbated by the Gulf Crisis, followed closely by the Indian atrocities in Kashmir, the festering Afghan war and the separatist tendencies in Sindh. We need a dynamic combination of economic and political initiatives. To achieve this the hard core PPP rank and file must be drawn into the national mainstream. Despite aberrations in the PPP leadership, people like Makhdoom Amin Fahim, Aftab Sherpao, Malik Meraj Khalid, Aitzaz Ahsan, etc must not be kept out in the cold. The present position of strength will lend credibility to the IJI if this path is chosen.
Given Ms Benazir’s personality and the track record of her rhetoric, one hardly sees her as being part of any National Government, working under the likes of Jatoi and Nawaz Sharif would be an anathema she could not possibly stomach. She should direct her efforts in getting her husband out of the mess he has landed himself, force-multiplied by the ill-conceived ads in the media. Selfish use of her political power for the purpose may be counter-productive for her and the country. Ms Benazir remains a national asset, suitable employment of her potential and energies for the good of the country must be found in the world arena. She enjoys undiminished international recognition and should be the Third World candidate to replace Perez de Cuellar as UN Secretary General when his term expires. The west adores her and is very impressed by a woman PM in a Muslim country, why not then a female UN Secretary General? Ms Benazir has a significant lobby in the international media, the US Congress and one daresays most world capitals. With Edward Kennedy, Barbara Mikulski, Stephen Solarz and Peter Galbraith, etc rooting for her, the right educational credentials of Harvard and Oxford matched by a sophisticated lobbying effort, she would be a shoo-in for the job, Asif Zardari notwithstanding. To those who think that this is a tongue-in-cheek suggestion, think again, this is a golden opportunity for Pakistan.
Nawaz Sharif has earned the right to be the Prime Minister of Pakistan. In the present circumstances he (and the Punjab) will have to have a big heart and give his support to Jatoi for the job. As PM, Jatoi solidifies the Sindh link to the country, while coming across as an able and sincere person, coalescing the support by the politics of compromise. With Jatoi’s amiable, laid-back and gentlemanly approach, the effective controls of day-to-day Government could be in the hands of Deputy Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. A national government would then tackle the national issues in a bridge-building, bipartisan manner, with no debilitating internal confrontation to confound us. The corruption factor that has bedevilled successive Pakistani Administrations can best be tackled only by a fair-minded accountability process reaching back to 1980, not excluding the politicians in the National Government and the bureaucracy. Above all this country’s economic existence depends upon a bipartisan economic policy. Ms Benazir could not rise above her political person to her real potential and was thus cast aside by the electorate. Can Nawaz Sharif do it? Is he our future or is he also a figment of media projection and of rhetoric?
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