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Geo-political spectrum Keeping one’s cool-II

One day before the death of Gen Zia, on 16 Aug 88, the last portion in an article in THE NATION entitled KEEPING ONE’S COOL read, I quote, “Patriotism begins with a deeply imbued courage of conviction, with the embodiment of sacrifice for what one really believes in, the totality and the lack of fear in facing up to the consequences of one’s actions in good faith. The Pakistan Army has a tremendous moral obligation, held in trust by a devoted nation and in the face of grave provocation from vested interests, the maturity in the leadership of the Pakistan Army must persevere as it is our sole bulwark against the bad guys. Subject to massive doses of adverse propaganda, the military leadership must show great patience, be oblivious to anything but the AIM, which is singularly and only, the defence of Pakistan”, unquote.

No amount of diplomatic footwork ever got any country geo-political advantage without an effective deterrent in the shape of strong Armed Forces. India remains the only country that operates its Armed Forces from delusions of grandeur, even the Super-Powers have basically become, for all practical purposes, isolationist in abandoning the gunboat diplomacy India pursues. India has the greatest population living below the poverty level, but its expansive (and economically expensive) reach of vision extends from the Fiji Islands in the East to the Gulf Region in the West with the Indian Ocean as the backwater for its Navy. Stunting India’s concept of a Grand Design is Pakistan, more importantly, the Pakistan Armed Forces. The country’s last martial law was an unmitigated disaster but the Pakistan Army has bounced back in the public image. Because of the evolving situation the people of this country are increasingly looking towards the leadership of the Armed Forces for succour.

The primary threat perception to Pakistan is from India. Pakistan was more surprised than India at the internal escalation of the Kashmir freedom movement, but for want of a better scapegoat, India put all the blame on “Pakistani interference and intercession”. Blatantly, Indian leaders have been threatening Pakistan with all out war, banking on the so-called omni-potency of the Indian Armed Forces, L K Advani has even threatened a nuclear holocaust, in this day and age this must be the only threat of this kind ever voiced publicly, explicit in defining of Indian intentions. While the basically cool attitude of the Pakistan Government goes down well in international diplomacy, serious preparations must be made for the war that V P Singh, L K Advani and others keep promising us is around the corner. Indian blustering is bluff designed to derive some advantage out of a basically no-win solution, a sustained and determined united stand will act as an effective deterrent to call that bluff. No one wants to fight a war, if we have to fight one, we must ensure that we win it.

The Sindh internal situation is another major problem, polarisation having peaked in Karachi and Hyderabad. Two major principles are being violated, both democratic. The Provincial leadership is not in the hands per se of the most powerful democratic figures of the PPP in the Sindh Province, instead Federal fiat is exercised through nominees, leading to the perception that (1) Ms Bhutto, despite her confident posture seems not to trust strong forces within her own party, feeling her own position will be eroded and (2) this is being perpetuated in her mind by friends and relatives who have vested interest in not allowing power and influence to slip out of their hands thus depriving them of the fountain of money which they are presently milking dry. The other democratic principle is the denial of metropolitan rule to democratically elected forces. The MQM won the Local Bodies, Provincial and Federal elections in Karachi and Hyderabad fair and square. While the fact remains that they could do another “Nawaz Sharif” on the Provincial and Federal Governments, particularly in the crucial (and only) port city of Karachi, on the other hand the responsibilities of government will most likely burden them with civic problems the alleviation of which they have pledged to the masses that voted them into power. Karachi has a number of economic plums to offer, democracy enjoins that the spoils go to the victor, in the same manner as at the Provincial and Federal level.

The bad economic situation is not confined to Pakistan alone, it has simply been aggravated because of last year’s political decision not to impose taxes when it was necessary. Given that the recent fuel-hike became unavoidable in the light of IMF conditionalities and widening budget deficits, the management of funds by the Ministerial appointees has been abominable, money has been spent as if this was a largesse donated by a late rich uncle. There is no use having good economic managers like V A Jafarey and AGN Kazi if the policies formulated by them are violated at will, Aftab Sherpao and his motley coalition in the NWFP being the only exception. PPP Superstar Sherpao is perhaps the most sophisticated practitioner of the democratic art in Pakistan today and PPP would do well to emulate him elsewhere, with compromise and continuing dialogue he has kept his Province trouble-free and economically humming. One of the measures to rejuvenate the economy is to reduce taxation, unfortunately the deficit is going to force additional taxation measures, that is the bitter pill we must swallow. Can PPP distribute the tax burden by bringing sacrifice on that sacred cow, the untaxable UNTOUCHABLES, the agriculture class?
Politics may dictate prudence in the imposition of taxes but a populist regime is more vulnerable to charges of corruption, howsoever much its rhetoric may deny otherwise. The late Zulfikar Ali Bhutto did not allow a taint of wrongdoing to touch his immediate family and his name survives in adulation thus even today. It was demeaning thus to read about our PM being asked by TIME magazine whether her husband and father-in-law indulge in corrupt practices. Corruption is endemic in the body politic in Pakistan but rumours and fairy tales have now exceeded all bounds and threaten the concept of our fledgling democracy. Take for example the sudden spurt in the premium for Foreign Exchange Bearer Certificates (FEBCs) at end March/beginning April from 5 to 8%, subsequently settling back at 6%. The fairy tale states that FEBCs amounting to about Rs 120 million were purchased to make two bank drafts from the branch of an European bank in Karachi one for Pound sterling 1 million, the other for Pound sterling 2 million. Because of slight name discrepancy from that in the individual’s passport, Barclays Bank or some other in London refused to honour the draft, the European Bank had to instruct their own branch in London to do so. How can we believe that anybody would have hard cash about Rs 120 million AT ONE TIME in Pakistan. Even the richest in the land would be hard pressed to produce that much liquid cash at any one time to give to the stockbrokers who normally deal in FEBCs. This seems to be a fairy tale, but what if it is not? What if many times that amount is being transferred abroad on a regular basis? And where is the money coming from, if true? The danger here is the advent of the Medellin Syndrome where the lawless have become a law unto themselves may be rapidly overtaking Pakistani society. Money can purchase great influence, along with power it is an omnipotent and dangerous combination. Insatiable greed can be overpowering, those coming into big money all of a sudden reach for every toy to enhance their wordly worth. The PPP has a great many people of conscience and conviction, is there no one to stand up and explain the dangers to our society and democracy if the loot of the public till continues with abandon and without check? If the money were flowing into the pockets of PPP hierarchy or hard-core it would be bad enough but that the PPP elements are getting chicken feed in comparison, adding insult to injury. Where is the great party of the masses that the late, lamented Zulfikar Ali Bhutto created to shun inequality, injustice and corruption, to us it seems that under the noses of his worthy daughter it has been hijacked by adventurers and pocket-Marcoses. Yet the PPP lives proudly in NWFP where Sherpao has ensured that not a whiff of scandal touches his Chief Ministership, one daresays Aftab Shahban Merani has also come across as clean uptil now. Not one rumour touches Ms Benazir in person, if the three PPP Chief executives personally remain corruption-free, why all the fire, why do all the other rumours abound? One should not doubt for one instant that corruption remains a great threat to our democratic aspirations in Pakistan.
The Armed Forces must keep their cool, not only because of their constitutional obligations but more due the prevailing threat to our existence on our borders. What is happening is a great provocation to people of conscience, whether political leaders, civilian bureaucrats or those in uniform of the country, they must bring to the attention of Ms Benazir that we are rapidly sliding into an abyss of Medellin proportions, justice may end up in the hands of criminals because of the inordinate power of money combined with influence, as criminals function in the name of justice, justice will become a crime. Are we playing a game of Russian Roulette? If people in positions of power (and in the knowledge of) cannot bring malfeasance to the attention of the leaders then something is wrong with them and the system, to hang onto their beloved seats and flagged cars, they have abandoned their conscience — and the poverty-stricken masses of the country. Since they are behaving like ostriches, we must reluctantly accept that these honourable men (and women) have become accessories to the fact. That may be the saddest epitaph to the civilisation we have been brought up in.

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